NFL

Who are some busts that do not get a lot of attention for their bust-ness? Specifically from the 2020 draft class onward

I'm talking about teams, that drafted several high-impact players in the same draft. Preferrably drafts that had 2+ players and aren't carried by a single player (i.e. no 2000 Patriots lol)

Recent ones off the top of my head:

2017 Saints

2022 Jets (maybe too soon still, but so far their top guys have been great)

Let’s hear it! Give me your most unpopular opinions so far this season. I know this sub can be a hive mind echo chamber sometimes where people all arrive at certain assumptions and conclusions based on small sample sizes or bias’.

Here’s a few of my unpopular (to this sub) takes:

1. RBs aren’t a “luxury” pick in the first round of the draft, you just have to accept that the pick won’t be as “long term” as other positions. Drafting guys like CMC, Travis ETN, Bijan, etc. aren’t “wastes” or “luxuries”. Those guys can really aid an offense, especially in the current era where we’re coming back around to ground attacks. The big issue is the second contract, but you’ll still have a stud weapon on the cheap for 4-5 years. More specially, I don’t see anything wrong with the Gibbs pick. People think he’s a bust or a waste bc he hasn’t been a 20-25 touch guy 6 games into his career… I think he can be a huge contributor for them for 4 seasons or so. If he helps them in big playoff games, then the pick is worth it, even if he’s not a guy who’s around for 6-10 seasons.

2. A QBs ability to process info and remained poised is far more important than athletic ability. Everyone is looking for the shiny athlete like Josh Allen or Lamar, but honestly guys like Brock Purdy, Kirk, Goff, etc. are way more attainable and way safer. They can process info and deliver accurate passes. Obviously the gold standard is a freak athlete who’s an elite processor, but I think some teams try to find the athletes first then try to teach the mental aspect. While it’s true that you can’t teach athletic ability like Fields has, or the arm talent Wilson has, it’s not so easy to teach the mental component either.

What’re your guys’ hot takes and unpopular opinions?

Personally, I think the Texans by far. Stroud is already a stud, Demeco Ryans seems promising as a motivator and a defensive mind, and their GM, Nick Caserio, probably had the best offseason out of any GM except for Howie Roseman.

I'd also throw the Colts and Rams in. Steichen seems legit and Stafford isn't washed like a lot of people thought.

This season alone Daniel Jones and now Brock Purdy have got injured during QB sneaks. There's also been multiple cases of LBs and DBs launching themselves headfirst in an attempt to stop QB sneaks..Fred Warner did so on Monday night.

Football is a violent sport. The CTE conversation over the last decade means there's a lot more focus on minimising head to head contact in the sport.

The QB sneak is probably the only play left where the two opposing lines literally bang heads.

Given the controversial conversations about the Eagles "Tush Push" (Which is basically the QB sneak on steroids) and Mahomes also getting his knee twisted on one a few years ago...will the MNF incident be the excuses the NFL clings onto to ban this play for safety reasons?

The NFL is obsessed with protecting the QB. They outlawed below the knee hits after the Brady injury in 2008...RTP gets enforced more frequently than ever before...The Unnecessary roughness penalties when a sliding QB gets hit etc.

They have been looking for ways to get rid of the Eagles' tush push play.A head injury to a QB ( One of the league's most promising young QBs at that) during a similar play provides a very good pathway to ban ALL QB sneaks for safety reasons..whether fans agree with that or not.

I was skimming through pro football reference yesterday, and was looking at Kamara and CMC's career stats. They have essentially had the exact same production in their careers.

Both were drafted in 2017. Kamara has played in a few more games, but they have still had almost the same amount of carries and receptions. McCaffrey gets slightly more work on a per game basis, but maybe that's contributed to him missing more time due to injury as well.

Overall though, it's kinda crazy that after 6.5 seasons, two elite RBs from the same draft class are only separated by 18 scrimmage yards and 1 touchdown.

I’m obviously posting this because my team lost due to shitty ref calls in the last 30 seconds of Sunday’s game (Manute Bol couldn’t have caught that pass) but I’m also talking about the Kenny Pickett magical first down that was short and the Christian Wilkins hit on Jalen Hurts as he threw the ball that was roughing the passer apparently. All 3 of these were worse than the replacement ref nonsense of 2012.

Refs are getting away with bad calls because coaches would rather challenge things like spotting the ball and their WR catching in bounds or just catching a pass which is strategically better anyway because refs should be expected to get their calls right and not swing the momentum of a game off of their penalty flags (unless the penalty is clearly what they’re calling). Reviewing penalties will help the refs get it right if the league office is involved.

I know the old saying goes “play well enough to not let the refs decide” or something but there’s been an increase in games decided by crap reffing giving teams 15 yards free or setting them up at the 1 for something that shouldn’t have been called. Fred Vanvleet was spot on with NBA refs doing the same stuff and showing their biases

I do want to end by saying Cleveland outplayed us enough to earn the win especially Myles Garrett

Travis Kelce and I are on the same page, /r/nfl doesnt know football. https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/s/EdvxbcWam2

For the deep dive this week, I put together a matrix using the Expected Points stats from Pro-football-reference.com for Week 8. The matrix looks at the EP for the Passing game for each team against the opposing teams' passing defense, and likewise for Rushing offenses vs rushing defenses. The first 2 columns show net Passing EP, the last 2 columns net Rushing EP.

The results should help forecast how much, and by which method, teams can move the ball against each other.

A = Away
H = Home
P = Passing
R = Rushing
D = Defense
O = Offense
ex. APO = Away Passing Offense

Full explanation about EP and the matrix using tonight's Thursday Night Game - Bucs @ Bills in the article: NFL Expected Points Matrix - Week 8

Enjoy the game tonight!

nfllines.com NFL Expected Points Matrix - Week 8

Without posting the full article here, the Bucs should have slightly above average success passing against the Bills. The Bills should have an easy time passing against the Bucs.

In the running game, the Bills should have around average production against the Bucs rushing defense. The Bills have a good rushing offense, but it is countered by an excellent Bucs rushing defense. Meanwhile the Bucs have real difficulty running the ball, and against an average Bills rushing defense, they probably cannot rely on rushing the ball to carry the night.

The Bills should hope for good passing weather as such conditions would allow them to play to their biggest advantage, passing against the Bucs defense. Since the Bucs haven't shown the ability to run the ball effectively, if the weather is good, look for a high % of passing from both teams.

If this holds true, this could be relatively high scoring from the Bills side of things. Something like Bills 31 Bucs 17 sounds about right.

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https://preview.redd.it/ej8odrveniwb1.png?width=1120&format=png&auto=webp&s=1a8cfc40db4b9593b705fbf096b4cec77beea511

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The early Sunday slate of week seven was highlighted by a highly-anticipated inter-conference matchup between the Lions and Ravens. However, Baltimore took control right now and turned this into a 38-6 beatdown.

I broke down what exactly they did on both sides of the ball. I could only post half the video unfortuntaley (time and file size). So if you want to watch the rest, you can so do here!

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https://reddit.com/link/17gubar/video/mkn8njuqqiwb1/player

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Any ideas why no teams on bye this week? Usually once the byes start, there are byes every week except Thanksgiving weekend. Unless my memory fails me.

Is there any obvious reason why this week wouldn't have a bye? Sweeps week for TV? Maximize competition against the World Series? Giving fans a chance to wear Halloween costumes?