| Lions |
over |
Packers |
Our first Turkey Day matchup, and it'll be a good division one. The Pack's offense found more of a groove around Love recently and played more inspired defense. They should have some confidence for going into this rematch from Week 4 losing 34-20. The Lions will try to take pressure off Goff early with a heavy dose of running and shortening the game so they can get home for a heavy Thanksgiving meal. |
| Cowboys |
over |
Commanders |
The second course is less appetizing, as the Commanders just lost at home to the Giants. Dallas beat those same Giants 49-17. They rip into bad teams by pouring it on with Dak's passing, the running game, defense and special teams. The Commanders tend to show up in holiday division matchups, so maybe this game won't be overcooked. |
| 49ers |
over |
Seattle |
The Niner's offense looks really good at this point. Purdy is in the zone with all of his weapons clicking at the same time. The defense is battling through more injuries, but the pass rush is revved up and still shutting down the run. Smith is hurting on a short week and should be without Walker in the backfield. It's not looking good for Seattle after it lost to the Rams and San Fra keeps the home team in a tryptophan stupor. |
| Dolphins |
over |
Jets |
Miami needs to remember to run the ball and not get too pass happy with Tua. The Jets are weak defending the rushing attack. They can't put Tua in a situation against a great pass rush and coverage. The Jets find a little more offense this week with Boyle, but it's not enough as the Dolphins' defense comes through to not spill the gravy. |
| Saints |
over |
Falcons |
The Saints have a little more stability and consistency with their offense vs. the Falcons, who are dealing with unknowns at QB and suspect personnel issues. Both teams are coming off a bye, and it's easier to trust Allen and his staff than Smith. This division matchup is always sloppy, but I think NOLA feasts of Dirty Bird this week. |
| Steelers |
over |
Bengals |
The Steelers still have Pickett at QB, which is better than the Bengals' situation minus Burrow. That didn't help them against the Watson-less Browns last week, but they can get on track running the ball and take advantage of their rival hosts also having other key injuries. Browning is going to have issues against Watt coming for his cornbread stuffing. |
| Titans |
over |
Panthers |
Reich's seat is hotter than the oil in a turkey fryer at this point. The Panthers are the lone one-win team left in the NFL, and it has been ugly all season. Tennessee averaged 12 PPG through a three-game losing streak, and Henry has just 45.7 rushing YPG in those losses. Henry gives Levis some run support, but Young keeps this battle of rookie QBs closer than expected. |
| Buccaneers |
over |
Colts |
The Bucs have lost five of six, three of them were one-score losses. With no running game Tampa is last in the league with 76.9 rushing YPG and can't be trusted on the road. Indy had a bye week and they remain in the playoff hunt, but I'm picking Baker to "bake" up some pumpkin pie throws out to Evans and Godwin. |
| Patriots |
over |
Giants |
Ah, this old Super Bowl chestnut. These two teams are a far cry from the Brady and Manning-led powerhouses we were used to. The Pats may give us a new starting QB this week, and coming off a bye, this could be the slight edge they need to win over DeVito. |
| Jaguars |
over |
Texans |
Great division game here. Jacksonville is 1-4 vs. Houston with Lawrence as its starting QB. But they are also 4-1 when they rush for at least 100 yards and limit their opponent to less than 100 yards. It's simple, they have to get after Stroud. Jacksonville is 3-2 when the spread is three points or less. If they don't spill the cranberry sauce, the Jags could stay on top of the division after this week. |
| Broncos |
over |
Browns |
Denver's on a hot streak, winning it's last four games. Cleveland has that elite defense, though, and they just brought on former Ravens Super Bowl QB Flacco to help DTR. This will be another close one but I think Russ will "cook" up some delicious plays to edge past the Browns. |
| Rams |
over |
Cardinals |
The Rams smashed the Cards 26-9 in the first meeting. Stafford led a comeback victory against Seattle, and now another opportunity on the road presents itself. Stafford is 2-1 in head-to-head against Murray, so this game could be tighter than you trying to fit into skinny jeans after eating all that turkey. |
| Chiefs |
over |
Raiders |
A win here would probably get Pierce the full-time HC job. KC is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, including three wins at Vegas by an average of 16.3 PPG. They're working on a short week, but the Raiders will need to have more success on the ground to keep up with a Chiefs' team that turns the ball over a little too much. Not planning for an upset, but Pierce could spike the eggnog on this one. |
| Eagles |
over |
Bills |
The Eagles have a short week going to a hit-or-miss Buffalo team that is 1-3 on the road. Philly is 4-1 when they get four or more sacks, so look for this defense to turn up the heat on this Allen meal. Hurts does the rest, and the Eagles feast on Buffalo this week. |
| Ravens |
over |
Chargers |
The Ravens are rolling with another AFC North title in sight with their competition fading because of injury and attrition. Jackson has struggled with the Chargers in the past and their passing issues make them look less appetizing than a green bean casserole. The Chargers' defense will play a little more inspired at home with Staley on the hottest of seats. Herbert also can keep his team in the game with wild-card hopes on the line. |
| Vikings |
over |
Bears |
Minnesota couldn't finish well against Denver, but that changes back at home in prime time. Dobbs' mobility and playmaking can cause Chicago's defense problems and there's a good chance Minnesota will put Jefferson on the field before the bye. With him stretching the field, it will open up plays elsewhere. Then the Vikings' run defense and pass rush will take care of the rest to contain Fields, making him look drier than the white meant of that turkey you just ate. |
10-4 last week and 96-68 on the season.
On to Turkey week.
Predicted winners in BOLD.
And awaaaay we go...
Thursday
GB @ DET - The Lions are just too good. Plus, I'd like to see them go all the way.
WAS @ DAL - The Commanders are so goddamn inconsistent, that I can also see this game going in the opposite direction where they blow out the Cowboys, thanks to an overconfidence that would be completely justified.
SF @ SEA - I have a feeling that the Niners will be eating turkey on our logo at centerfield this year, however foolish homer pride will not allow me to pick them to win even for fake internet points. The thing is, I believe the Seahawks have the talent to win, there is just something missing. I don't know if it is play-calling, coaching, youthful inexperience or what. I just wish they would figure it the fuck out.
Friday
MIA @ NYJ - Yeah... no.
Sunday
NO @ ATL - I'm only picking the Saints because they have the better record. Neither of these teams inspire confidence.
PIT @ CIN - The Steelers - 1 Matt Canada + The Bengals - 1 Joe Burrow = Steelers win. (Math was, admittedly, never my strongest subject, but I think this checks out.)
JAX @ HOU - The Texans have been on a bit of a tear the last few weeks, and I think that trend will continue this week against the Jags. Plus, I just want the Texans to do well. I personally have no dog in this fight, but buddy of mine from Houston is a HUGE fan, and I just want him to be happy.
TB @ IND - I'm only picking the Colts for the same reason I picked the Saints.
NE @ NYG - Is it just me or do the Giants either win big, or just get completely blown the fuck up? There is no middle ground. I'd have to check their full schedule to be sure, but it sure seems that way. Fortunately for the G-Men, they are going up against the Patriots who are in just as bad, if not worse shape.
CAR @ TEN - I can't really picture this Panthers squad getting a win against this Tits squad.
LAR @ AZ - As bad as the Rams have been this season, the Cardinals have been worse. I know, I know, I've repeatedly said that the Cardinals were better than their record suggests. That was when Dobbs was still on the team though.
CLE @ DEN - The Broncos are playing some sloppy-ass football, but it is good enough to win. Which is a trend I think they will continue this week.
KC @ LV - Divisional games tend to be weird, so this going the other way wouldn't surprise me.
BUF @ PHI - 10 weeks ago this would have been a great matchup. But with the Bills struggles over the last several weeks, the Eagles should have this one in the bag.
BAL @ LAC - Yeah, moving on...
Monday
CHI @ MIN - The Vikings game against the Broncos last week was completely winnable, and they had them on the ropes for most of that game. I think the Vikings will bounce back against the Bears this week.