this post was submitted on 22 Nov 2023
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Happy Thanskgiving Week, /r/NFL! I'm thankful that all you goobers read this series every year and participate. We had kind of a crazy Week 11 where I broke even, going 7-7 and bringing me to 108-56 on the season. How did everyone else do? As is Thanksgiving tradition, we have three Turkey Day games on Thursday. We also have our first Black Friday game this year, which will be fun. We have a massive 10 division games this week, with three inter-conference and two cross-conference games lined up. I may be throwing some Thanksgiving puns in my predictions... fair warning. Let's get to it!


Winner Loser Comments
Lions over Packers Our first Turkey Day matchup, and it'll be a good division one. The Pack's offense found more of a groove around Love recently and played more inspired defense. They should have some confidence for going into this rematch from Week 4 losing 34-20. The Lions will try to take pressure off Goff early with a heavy dose of running and shortening the game so they can get home for a heavy Thanksgiving meal.
Cowboys over Commanders The second course is less appetizing, as the Commanders just lost at home to the Giants. Dallas beat those same Giants 49-17. They rip into bad teams by pouring it on with Dak's passing, the running game, defense and special teams. The Commanders tend to show up in holiday division matchups, so maybe this game won't be overcooked.
49ers over Seattle The Niner's offense looks really good at this point. Purdy is in the zone with all of his weapons clicking at the same time. The defense is battling through more injuries, but the pass rush is revved up and still shutting down the run. Smith is hurting on a short week and should be without Walker in the backfield. It's not looking good for Seattle after it lost to the Rams and San Fra keeps the home team in a tryptophan stupor.
Dolphins over Jets Miami needs to remember to run the ball and not get too pass happy with Tua. The Jets are weak defending the rushing attack. They can't put Tua in a situation against a great pass rush and coverage. The Jets find a little more offense this week with Boyle, but it's not enough as the Dolphins' defense comes through to not spill the gravy.
Saints over Falcons The Saints have a little more stability and consistency with their offense vs. the Falcons, who are dealing with unknowns at QB and suspect personnel issues. Both teams are coming off a bye, and it's easier to trust Allen and his staff than Smith. This division matchup is always sloppy, but I think NOLA feasts of Dirty Bird this week.
Steelers over Bengals The Steelers still have Pickett at QB, which is better than the Bengals' situation minus Burrow. That didn't help them against the Watson-less Browns last week, but they can get on track running the ball and take advantage of their rival hosts also having other key injuries. Browning is going to have issues against Watt coming for his cornbread stuffing.
Titans over Panthers Reich's seat is hotter than the oil in a turkey fryer at this point. The Panthers are the lone one-win team left in the NFL, and it has been ugly all season. Tennessee averaged 12 PPG through a three-game losing streak, and Henry has just 45.7 rushing YPG in those losses. Henry gives Levis some run support, but Young keeps this battle of rookie QBs closer than expected.
Buccaneers over Colts The Bucs have lost five of six, three of them were one-score losses. With no running game Tampa is last in the league with 76.9 rushing YPG and can't be trusted on the road. Indy had a bye week and they remain in the playoff hunt, but I'm picking Baker to "bake" up some pumpkin pie throws out to Evans and Godwin.
Patriots over Giants Ah, this old Super Bowl chestnut. These two teams are a far cry from the Brady and Manning-led powerhouses we were used to. The Pats may give us a new starting QB this week, and coming off a bye, this could be the slight edge they need to win over DeVito.
Jaguars over Texans Great division game here. Jacksonville is 1-4 vs. Houston with Lawrence as its starting QB. But they are also 4-1 when they rush for at least 100 yards and limit their opponent to less than 100 yards. It's simple, they have to get after Stroud. Jacksonville is 3-2 when the spread is three points or less. If they don't spill the cranberry sauce, the Jags could stay on top of the division after this week.
Broncos over Browns Denver's on a hot streak, winning it's last four games. Cleveland has that elite defense, though, and they just brought on former Ravens Super Bowl QB Flacco to help DTR. This will be another close one but I think Russ will "cook" up some delicious plays to edge past the Browns.
Rams over Cardinals The Rams smashed the Cards 26-9 in the first meeting. Stafford led a comeback victory against Seattle, and now another opportunity on the road presents itself. Stafford is 2-1 in head-to-head against Murray, so this game could be tighter than you trying to fit into skinny jeans after eating all that turkey.
Chiefs over Raiders A win here would probably get Pierce the full-time HC job. KC is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, including three wins at Vegas by an average of 16.3 PPG. They're working on a short week, but the Raiders will need to have more success on the ground to keep up with a Chiefs' team that turns the ball over a little too much. Not planning for an upset, but Pierce could spike the eggnog on this one.
Eagles over Bills The Eagles have a short week going to a hit-or-miss Buffalo team that is 1-3 on the road. Philly is 4-1 when they get four or more sacks, so look for this defense to turn up the heat on this Allen meal. Hurts does the rest, and the Eagles feast on Buffalo this week.
Ravens over Chargers The Ravens are rolling with another AFC North title in sight with their competition fading because of injury and attrition. Jackson has struggled with the Chargers in the past and their passing issues make them look less appetizing than a green bean casserole. The Chargers' defense will play a little more inspired at home with Staley on the hottest of seats. Herbert also can keep his team in the game with wild-card hopes on the line.
Vikings over Bears Minnesota couldn't finish well against Denver, but that changes back at home in prime time. Dobbs' mobility and playmaking can cause Chicago's defense problems and there's a good chance Minnesota will put Jefferson on the field before the bye. With him stretching the field, it will open up plays elsewhere. Then the Vikings' run defense and pass rush will take care of the rest to contain Fields, making him look drier than the white meant of that turkey you just ate.

Those are my predictions, let's hear yours. Keep it civil and fun. Best of luck and Happy Thanksgiving!

top 39 comments
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[–] Popular-Ticket-3090@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I would flip Texans over Jags and Browns over Broncos

[–] Majestic_Fox_428@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Those are the toughest to decide.

[–] tridentwhale@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

My prediction is we clap the Eagles’ cheeks.

I’d much rather talk my shit and be humbled than be one of those dudes who talk it after the fact.

[–] Steakbomb90@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

We'll probably get our butts kicked again, but divisional matchups can get pretty spooky and you never know who will win.

[–] Obi_Fett@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

I've yet to feel comfortable all year long. Especially with these win streaks, I'm expecting a loss sooner rather than later

[–] jwwin@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

I don't want to get into all of them, but I have the Panthers and Bears winning this week.

[–] Colts_1995@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Colts 31 Bucs 21

[–] Altruistic-Zone1664@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Broncos winning streak is a little overrated.

[–] chrispar@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Prediction: I drink more on Friday during the Jets-Dolphins game then I do on Thursday during Thanksgiving

[–] ExhibitAa@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Using the team name for everyone but the Seahawks is bugging me.

[–] Table_Coaster@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Lions > Packers

Cowboys > Commies

9ers > Hawks

Dolphins > Jets

Saints > Falcons

Steelers > Bengals

Panthers > Titans

Colts > Bucs

Giants > Pats

Jags > Texans

Browns > Broncos

Cards > Rams

Chiefs > Raiders

Ravens > Chargers

Bears > Vikings

I think the biggest asskickings of the week will be Ravens over the Chargers and Chiefs over Raiders

[–] COVID_DEEZ_NUTS@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Texans over Jags for sure. Stroud has only gotten better since the last match, which we won.

[–] TheSheriff43@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

We're going to see Kaio-Kenny this week

[–] will4xx@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

10-4 last week, 103-61 overall, last time I posted predictions here I had a terrible week

Commanders over Cowboys - divisional rival thanksgiving game, I like Washington with the major upset. I might be drunk with this one

Texans over Jaguars - Houston gets the sweep as they take the lead in the south with a very interesting schedule remaining. Potentially the most underrated team in the league

Raiders over Chiefs - Raiders defense is clicking, but if the Chiefs offense starts clicking, it may not end well for us. I think the Chiefs will be able to score in the second half, but it won’t be enough against a team playing hard for their new coach in a game that would matter a lot for his case to return next year. 23-20 Raiders

Everything else: Lions, 49ers, Dolphins, Bucs, Patriots, Steelers, Titans, Falcons, Cardinals, Broncos, Eagles, Ravens, Vikings

[–] EGGPLANTORBUST@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Lions over Packers

Cowboys over Commies

49ers over Seahawks

Dolphins over Jets

Saints over Falcons

Steelers over Bengals

Titans over Panthers

Buccaneers over Colts

Patriots over Giants

Jaguars over Texans

Broncos over Browns

Cardinals over Rams

Chiefs over Raiders

Eagles over Bills

Ravens over Chargers

Bears over Vikings

Week 11: 10–4

Overall: 98-66

[–] Vaquero_Pescador@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)
Away Home Confidence
~~Packers~~ (40%) Lions (70%) 75%
~~Commanders~~ (55%) Cowboys (80%) 75%
49ers (60%) ~~Seahawks~~ (70%) 60%
Dolphins (70%) ~~Jets~~ (80%) 99%
Buccaneers (70%) ~~Colts~~ (60%) 50%
~~Patriots~~ (70%) Giants (91%) 50%
Steelers (40%) ~~Bengals~~ (60%) 50%
~~Panthers~~ (80%) Titans (50%) 50%
~~Jaguars~~ (60%) Texans (30%) 50%
Saints (50%) ~~Falcons~~ (40%) 60%
Rams (50%) ~~Cardinals~~ (73%) 50%
~~Browns~~ (60%) Broncos (50%) 50%
~~Bills~~ (55%) Eagles (70%) 60%
Chiefs (70%) ~~Raiders~~ (73%) 75%
Ravens (55%) ~~Chargers~~ (70%) 75%
~~Bears~~ (73%) Vikings (64%) 50%

Team (%) = team prediction accuracy

Week 1 : 7-9 (43.8%)

Week 2 : 11-5 (68.8%)

Week 3 : 11-5 (68.8%)

Week 4 : 12-4 (75%)

Week 5 : 6-8 (42.9%)

Week 6 : 10-5 (66.7%)

Week 7 : 5-8 (38.5%)

Week 8 : 13-3 (81.3%)

Week 9 : 8-6 (57.1%)

Week 10 : 8-6 (57.1%)

Week 11 : 11-3 (78.6%)

Overall : 102-62 (62.2%)

[–] Mission_Pay_3373@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Our game against the Giants is so dependent on who's going to start for the Pats

[–] I_are_facepalm@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Lamar is going to throw for 600 yards and rush for 200.

[–] Any_Consequence_9174@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

THE COWBOYS MAY WIN OR THEY MAY LOSE

[–] wideruled@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

They might even tie!

[–] NO_TOUCHING__lol@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Personally I think the Seahawks are gonna be out for blood after losing a close one and getting swept by the Rams, so I don't see the Niners having an easy time of this on Thursday, in Seattle, but maybe I'm just a homer

[–] Majestic_Fox_428@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

This did not age well.

[–] liljakeyplzandthnx@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

The end result of the Titans game this week will take the team out of the MHJ sweepstakes

[–] Donnerpartytwink@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Birds 31 Bills 20

[–] akmjolnir@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Patriots lose by 28.

[–] Simmumah@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Green Bay 20 - 38 Detroit | Detroit had their shit game last week and managed to come out with a win. Green Bay is a walking emergency room and no Aaron Jones. Detroit should keep this a multiple score game with relative ease.

Washington 24 - 23 Dallas |Sam Howell is leading the league in yards. Dallas always seem to pull a stinker vs a game nobody expects and I think this is the one.

San Francisco 27 - 16 Seattle | San Fran seems back on track and Geno is playing with an injured elbow, expect alot of short yardage and running plays which I think SF should cover up nicely and control the game with CMC.

Miami 14 - 7 NYJ (OT) | Miami is an indoor team right now especially in the cold. That NYJ defense is still top 5 and I think Tua struggles but they end up clawing their way past the Jets. Boyle is not an improvement.

New Orleans 30 - 33 Atlanta | This division fucking SUCKS dude. Arthur Smith figures out Bijan exists, he has a big game, 200 scrim yards and 2 TDs.

Pittsburgh 19 - 17 Cinci | With Canada gone the Pickler erupts for 180 yards and 1 TD.

Jacksonville 37 - 40 Houston | This one should be fun. Indoors with two elite QBs. Give me Stroud in a track meet.

Tampa Bay 21 - 14 Indi | Tampa is the most frustrating team to watch, lots of talent. Give me Baker

New England 20 - 23 NYG | Sickos.

Carolina 27 - 21 Tennessee | Sickos v2.

LA Rams 37 - 20 Arizona | Stafford goes off for a monster game, 400 yards. Rams continue an unlikely wild card push.

Cleveland 20 - 13 Denver | The fairy tale ends here Russ. Cleveland D stifles Russell Wilson all day, getting two defensive TDs.

Kansas City 20 - 17 Las Vegas | What should be a get right game is much closer because the drops continue for KC.

Buffalo 34 - 24 Philly | Josh Allen goes off for a monster game and in the shock of the week, Buffalo is suddenly back to 7-5.

Baltimore 14 - 28 LA Chargers | Ravens pull a stinker this one, Herbert wills his team past Brandon Staley.

Chicago 30 - 27 Minnesota (OT) | Chicago is not as bad as their record indicates. Justin Fields indoors on a defense that just got ran over by Denver is scary. Chicago puts a huge dent in Minnesota's playoff push.

[–] thismike0613@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Tough week bro lol

[–] ElderCunningham@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Gonna be a tough week for my "no repeats" betting pool, as I can't bet on any of tomorrow's games. Very few to choose from.

[–] Burger-King-Sucks@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Overall: 93-70

Last week: 9-5

Lions over Packers

Cowboys over Commanders

49ers over Seahawks

Dolphins over Jets

Falcons over Saints

Steelers over Bengals

Texans over Jaguars

Colts over Buccaneers

Giants over Patriots

Titans over Panthers

Rams over Cardinals

Browns over Broncos

Chiefs over Raiders

Eagles over Bills

Ravens over Chargers

Vikings over Bears

[–] nwt0@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Lions over Packers Cowboys over Commanders Seahawks over 49ers Dolphins over Jets Falcons over Saints Steelers over Bengals Titans over Panthers Colts over Buccaneers Patriots over Giants Jaguars over Texans Broncos over Browns Cardinals over Rams Chiefs over Raiders Eagles over Bills Ravens over Chargers Vikings over Bears

[–] Mrbubble274@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

LW: 10-4

OVR: 99-65


Lions def Packers

Cowboys def Commanders

49ers def Seahawks

Dolphins def Jets

Saints def Falcons

Steelers def Bengals

Titans def Panthers

Bucs def Colts

Patriots def Giants

Texans def Jaguars

Broncos def Browns

Rams def Cards

Chiefs def Raiders

Bills def Eagles

Chargers def Ravens

Bears def Vikings


Upset: The Josh Dobbs fantasy will come to an end. I can't picture this team going to the playoffs so i will give them a L here. Low scoring game with a lot of turnover. Bears will still look terrible tho so it coukd be their last win of the season.

[–] OfficialClassic@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Bills Eagles to be the highest scoring game of the week

[–] KonnorwaKay@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

My prediction is we see Tyler Huntley this week before the game is over

[–] Draconic_Rising@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Lions over Packers

Cowboys over Commanders

49ers over Seahawks

Dolphins over Jets

Saints over Falcons

Steelers over Bengals

Titans over Panthers

Buccaneers over Colts

Giants over Patriots

Jaguars over Texans

Broncos over Browns

Cardinals over Rams

Chiefs over Raiders

Eagles over Bills

Ravens over Chargers

Vikings over Bears

Last week: 9-5

Overall: 104-60

[–] Capsize@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

8-5 Last week, worst one in a while: 101-62 on the season

Lions > Packers

Cowboys > Commies

Seahawks > 49ers

Dolphins > Jets

Saints > Falcons

Steelers > Bengals

Titans > Panthers

Bucs > Colts

Pats > Giants

Texans > Jags

Browns > Broncos

Rams > Cards

Eagles > Bills

Chiefs > Raiders

Ravens > Chargers

Vikings > Bears

[–] Something_More@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Last Week: 6 - 8

Packers at Lions

Commanders at Cowboys

49ers at Seahawks

Dolphins at Jets

Buccaneers at Colts

Patriots at Giants

Steelers at Bengals

Panthers at Titans

Jaguars at Texans

Saints at Falcons

Rams at Cardinals

Browns at Broncos

Bills at Eagles

Chiefs at Raiders

Ravens at Chargers

Bears at Vikings

Season: 97 - 67 or .591

Previous Weeks: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11

[–] 13angrymonkeys@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

10-4 last week and 96-68 on the season.

On to Turkey week.

Predicted winners in BOLD.

And awaaaay we go...

Thursday
GB @ DET - The Lions are just too good. Plus, I'd like to see them go all the way.

WAS @ DAL - The Commanders are so goddamn inconsistent, that I can also see this game going in the opposite direction where they blow out the Cowboys, thanks to an overconfidence that would be completely justified.

SF @ SEA - I have a feeling that the Niners will be eating turkey on our logo at centerfield this year, however foolish homer pride will not allow me to pick them to win even for fake internet points. The thing is, I believe the Seahawks have the talent to win, there is just something missing. I don't know if it is play-calling, coaching, youthful inexperience or what. I just wish they would figure it the fuck out.

Friday
MIA @ NYJ - Yeah... no.

Sunday
NO @ ATL - I'm only picking the Saints because they have the better record. Neither of these teams inspire confidence.

PIT @ CIN - The Steelers - 1 Matt Canada + The Bengals - 1 Joe Burrow = Steelers win. (Math was, admittedly, never my strongest subject, but I think this checks out.)

JAX @ HOU - The Texans have been on a bit of a tear the last few weeks, and I think that trend will continue this week against the Jags. Plus, I just want the Texans to do well. I personally have no dog in this fight, but buddy of mine from Houston is a HUGE fan, and I just want him to be happy.

TB @ IND - I'm only picking the Colts for the same reason I picked the Saints.

NE @ NYG - Is it just me or do the Giants either win big, or just get completely blown the fuck up? There is no middle ground. I'd have to check their full schedule to be sure, but it sure seems that way. Fortunately for the G-Men, they are going up against the Patriots who are in just as bad, if not worse shape.

CAR @ TEN - I can't really picture this Panthers squad getting a win against this Tits squad.

LAR @ AZ - As bad as the Rams have been this season, the Cardinals have been worse. I know, I know, I've repeatedly said that the Cardinals were better than their record suggests. That was when Dobbs was still on the team though.

CLE @ DEN - The Broncos are playing some sloppy-ass football, but it is good enough to win. Which is a trend I think they will continue this week.

KC @ LV - Divisional games tend to be weird, so this going the other way wouldn't surprise me.

BUF @ PHI - 10 weeks ago this would have been a great matchup. But with the Bills struggles over the last several weeks, the Eagles should have this one in the bag.

BAL @ LAC - Yeah, moving on...

Monday
CHI @ MIN - The Vikings game against the Broncos last week was completely winnable, and they had them on the ropes for most of that game. I think the Vikings will bounce back against the Bears this week.

[–] ADefiniteDescription@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago
Winner Loser
Lions over Packers
Cowboys over Commanders
49ers over Seahawks
Dolphins over Jets
Falcons over Saints
Steelers over Bengals
Titans over Panthers
Buccaneers over Colts
Patriots over Giants
Texans over Jaguars
Broncos over Browns
Rams over Cardinals
Chiefs over Raiders
Eagles over Bills
Ravens over Chargers
Bears over Vikings

#Week 11 Score:

8-6

#Overall Score:

##91-65 (.583)

  • Week 1 - 10-6 (Missed on: CLE, TB, LV, MIA, LAR, NYJ)
  • Week 2 - 10-6 (Missed on: ATL, BAL, SEA, TEN, WAS, PIT)
  • Week 3 - 9-7 (Missed on: CLE, GB, HOU, IND, ARI, PIT, CIN)
  • Week 4 - 12-4 (Missed on: BUF, BAL, TEN, HOU)
  • Week 5 - 6-8 (Missed on: CHI, JAC, HOU, NO, PIT, NYJ, SF, LV)
  • Week 6 - 8-7 (Missed on: WAS, MIN, CLE, HOU, LV, NYJ, DAL)
  • Week 7 - 6-7 (Missed on: CHI, NE, ATL, BAL, PIT, DEN, MIN)
  • Week 8 - 13-3 (Missed on: TEN, CAR, DEN)
  • Week 9 - 11-3 (Missed on: KC, MIN, WAS)
  • Week 10 - 6-8 (Missed on: CHI, IND, HOU, MIN, SF, CLE, ARI, DEN)
  • Week 11 - 8-6 (Missed on: BAL, CLE, GB, NYG, LAR, PHI)
[–] Deeboe2691@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Who do you guys think will get a touchdown tomorrow??😁