this post was submitted on 03 Oct 2026
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I've come to realize that I was assuming that there was a limit somewhere to "the market staying irrational". I'm not so sure anymore
always been this way
🧑🚀🔫🧑🚀
You could argue that a heavily debt-based business that requires years and years of more debt before becoming profitable would respond to rising interest rates quite negatively, but, yeah, the whole thing is already enitrely irrational.
I'm keeping some popcorn in reserve for OpenAI's IPO.
But the question is whether or not they're actively holding debt or just letting themselves get diluted through investments.
There's more supply than demand for compute at the moment, so Microsoft is more than happy to buy ownership through Azure credits - Likewise Amazon is with AWS credits
Oh, they're definitely holding debt in addition to whatever else the hell is going on with their shell games.
I don't get why they haven't gone already.
If they don't get their IPO off before the bubble pops, they might be losing out on a trillion with a capital T
Well that ship has SAILED, either way
Because there is no way he gets 1 Trillion in an IPO the moment their finances become public, and that is the bare minimum he needs so he doesn't get ripped to shreds.
And we already know they're due to run completely out of money sometime in 2027. And getting more users only increases their expenses, with no real path to profitability in sight
That's why i postulate that they will be bailed out, for the simple reason that the US military and 3-letter-agencies do not care if you can make money with this tech. They care about the amount of control it gives them.
If they get bailed out it means that the Military-Industrial complex has it's fingers so deep in OpenAI and Anthropic that they wear them like a glove.
Edit: the news actually are developing faster than i thought. Jay Clayton, a Three-Letter-Agency guy being called upon to be responsible for AI by Trump makes my prediction a certainty.
It's less about fundamentals and more about what investors believe about the market. That's why Musk is so good at manipulating the market, he's convincing enough for many investors.
The market has never been rational.