this post was submitted on 28 Nov 2023
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People keep saying 1st and 9 but every time they run it they get like three yards lol
I’d say we’d be at like 95% chance on 4th&1 and like 70% on 4th&2
Honestly, if it didn't apparently take so much out of our players, we should be running it for a 2pt conversion every time. A 70% success rate would make that the analytically correct move in neutral situations.
I'll admit I don't pay a ton of attention to the games, but I swear to God I have not seen DeAndre Swift rush for less than 12 yards this year.