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How big of an advantage is it for the Eagles to only have to get 9 yards instead of 10 (alien.top)

submitted 11 months ago by CrossfitJebus@alien.top to c/nfl@nfl.community

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With the tush push being so effective, they effectively only have to get 9 yards every three downs. So what kind of advantage does it give them

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[–] Leading-Evidence-668@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I’d say we’d be at like 95% chance on 4th&1 and like 70% on 4th&2

[–] theordinarypoobah@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Honestly, if it didn't apparently take so much out of our players, we should be running it for a 2pt conversion every time. A 70% success rate would make that the analytically correct move in neutral situations.