this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2023
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The TWolves have 2 playoff series wins in their entire history. If the Gobert trade gets them even to the WCF, it's a franchise high water mark.
But it's still an overpay in the sense that they almost certainly could have gotten Gobert for less. They were bidding against themselves.
I mean... how do you know? Look at the other trades for All Star talent that have happened. Each involves multiple picks AND good young pieces. Wolves decided to not give good young pieces so we gave more picks.
Beasley, Vando, Bolmaro, and Kessler were all included in that trade. Bolmaro was a bust, but Beasley/Vando were traded for another pick, and Kessler looks really good. That trade also included Pat Bev, who Utah flipped for another young player in THT. So Minnesota gave up 4 FRP + a swap, plus guys who were traded for another FRP, plus a good young player in Kessler, plus a piece that got flipped for another young player in THT.
That's the kind of haul I expect for a consensus top 10 kind of player, not a mere All Star talent. I don't think Utah was getting comparable offers from any other team. I like Tim Connelly (I had several in-person conversations with him over the years in Denver and he's a good dude) and I understand his general team-building philosophy, but I don't think any other team was offering even 2 FRP+swap+young guys for Gobert, so it's an overpay. It might still end up being a championship move, but even if so, it's a move they could have probably had a couple more picks left over after, which would be valuable pieces for shoring up depth at the deadline or next offseason.
Saying Beasley/Vando getting traded for another pick is disingenuous. Beasley/Vando/Minnesota Mike/NAW/2 2nds was flipped into a 1 first round pick, and eating the Westbrook contract.
Also THT isn't some prize either, he is a tank commander with negative vorp.
I don't think they were bidding against themselves, but rather Utah had no incentive to trade Gobert. By all accounts Gobert appeared happy in Utah, and while that Jazz team was in no contending for a title with what they had at the time, the general feeling was "We need to make some changes to build AROUND Gobert/Mitchell." If there was any rumor that Rudy was unhappy in Utah or the Jazz were done with the Gobert experiment, then possibly the Wolves get some leverage but then they risk other teams having better offers (a la the Cavs snagging Mitchell when everyone assumed he'd be getting traded to the Knicks).
If they offered "less" for Gobert then most likely the Jazz end up ignoring the offer(s) and instead either run it back with what they had or trade some role players to help Rudy and Donovan.