this post was submitted on 27 Jan 2024
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News

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131
Economists Predicted a Recession. So Far They’ve Been Wrong (www.nytimes.com)
submitted 10 months ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/news@lemmy.world
38 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

A widely predicted recession never showed up. Now, economists are assessing what the unexpected resilience tells us about the future.

The recession America was expecting never showed up.

Many economists spent early 2023 predicting a painful downturn, a view so widely held that some commentators started to treat it as a given. Inflation had spiked to the highest level in decades, and a range of forecasters thought that it would take a drop in demand and a prolonged jump in unemployment to wrestle it down.

Instead, the economy grew 3.1 percent last year, up from less than 1 percent in 2022 and faster than the average for the five years leading up to the pandemic. Inflation has retreated substantially. Unemployment remains at historic lows, and consumers continue to spend even with Federal Reserve interest rates at a 22-year high.

The divide between doomsday predictions and the heyday reality is forcing a reckoning on Wall Street and in academia. Why did economists get so much wrong, and what can policymakers learn from those mistakes as they try to anticipate what might come next?

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[–] Telodzrum@lemmy.world 10 points 10 months ago (3 children)

youtube Economist

holy shit lmao

[–] sylver_dragon@lemmy.world 10 points 10 months ago

He's on Youtube and claims to be an Economist. I can't prove it one way or the other, though I personally believe he is. Didn't want to look like I was advertising, so didn't name/link him and also didn't want to claim his tagline as my own.

[–] HerrBeter@lemmy.world 4 points 10 months ago (1 children)

There are plenty of highly educated making videos explaining happenings in their fields. This ridicule is uncalled for

[–] Mr_Blott@lemmy.world 1 points 10 months ago (2 children)

Young people - oh my god old people believe everything they read on Facebook!

Also young people - well this guy on YT says he's an expert so it must be true

[–] HerrBeter@lemmy.world 0 points 10 months ago

No information is better than the sources provided

[–] IndustryStandard@lemmy.world 0 points 10 months ago

This is why I follow the old saying: "Believe everything you read in the newspapers."