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Harris ups lead over Trump, although presidential race still on knife-edge
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 21 Sep 2024
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Yeah, they're entirely meaningless this election cycle. These poll leads have been sitting in margin of error zones the whole damn time, which means you cannot make a useful inference from the data in the poll.
It's so close you can slightly tweak the conditions and who you ask and WHAT you ask them to push the poll data to support anything you want.
Good for propaganda, bad for anything else.
Also, who answers an unknown number from their phone anymore other than the elderly and the lonely? That's not exactly a good cross-section of voters.
There was an interesting thing from the NYT where they talked about their phone poll response rate being 2%.
I can't imagine that they had worse or better response rates annoying people with their shit than anyone else would, so it's probably a good wager that all the polls see 2% response rates and thus are based off a shockingly small profile of people.
A small dataset can still be statistically significant, depending on how and where the data is obtained and structured.
That being said, everything involving Trump has had bad polling since he first started running. Poor polling isn't particularly new when he's involved. Some of it is spot on, others wildly inaccurate.
I'm surprised marketing companies don't release their stats since they have a better idea of who everyone is going to vote for than anyone else. But then they'd have to admit that they know.
They'd also have to not have a horse race, which is what is in their best interest.
That doesn't mean it's meaningless. It means it's a very close race.