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Swing states: how Democratic vote stayed flat while Republican gains won it for Trump
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2024
66 points (92.3% liked)
politics
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I don't think so. The total number of votes didn't change much, but it isn't like the exact same people from 2020 came out for him again. He made massive gains in black and Hispanic voters, for example, so his base isn't necessarily capped yet.
In 2020, Biden received 81,284,666 votes, Trump 74,224,319.
Last Tuesday Harris received 69,119,332 votes, Trump 73,461,159.
But if you look at the swing states that resulted in her loss, MI, WI, PA the votes are comparable to 2020.
(Votes in millions) MI: 2.80 Trump - 2.72 Harris vs 2.65 Trump vs 2.80 Biden WI: 1.70 Trump - 1.67 Harris vs 1.61 Trump vs 1.63 Biden PA: 3.51 trump - 3.44 Harris vs 3.38 Trump vs 3.46 Biden
Yes, Harris got generally fewer votes (Though not in WI). If Trump performed exactly as he did in 2020, Harris would have won. Trump did better. More people said "yes I want Trump" or more people turned out to vote to make sure it was "too big to steal"
If those numbers are "trumps votes stayed flat too" then, Harris receiving a similar number of votes to Biden in 2020 is flat too, right?
Like yeah there was an enthusiasm gap that seems pretty clear from the popular vote. But if you just look at the must win states it wasn't as far as what the nationwide popular vote would sugget. I think the safest conclusion to draw is Repubs were more energized to beat the fictional steal, and for some asinine reason some anti-trump voters went "...eh..Harris isn't good enough for my vote so we'll risk a fascist winning."
Yeah trump did better with young men, but I don't like % point comparisons like they show. If dem voters don't show up, it appears like Trump "wins". There were definitely articles where it was clearly he was picking up iconically reliable blue votes - Black and Latinos specifically. I think it's more just that people are hurting. The economy sucks for them and has for the past 12+ years. Even considering increased wages, it's still costing ridiculous more to exist.
The only shot the Dems had of not having that around their neck is an actually open primary. Biden needed to stick to what he said he was going to be - a bridge to the next generation. But he didn't. And then hung on top long where the only logical step with three months to go was Kamala. Even if a snap primary on all 50 states could happen again in a month, all the headlines would be "DEMS SKIP OVER CLEARLY QUALIFIED BLACK WOMAN -ARE THEY RACIST?"
Politics is messy. Dems needed a dem candidate. They've asininely let Republicans become the agents of change. The people that will shake things up. Fight the establishment. And it doesn't matter they don't actually do that, most voters are low info. The Democratic party needs to get people back on the picket line. Fight more. Go after business more. Swing for the fences and lose. Propose a negative income tax bracket. Yeah it's more conservative bullshit from the Reagan era, but it's a decent fucking alternative to UBI which doesn't have the broad appeal.
2020 Data 2024 Data
But, apparently, they will do that more than Dems. But just a bit.
People also don't like educated well-off white liberals graciously descending to ask for their lowly votes, to bring these poor bastards to some democratic heaven, but that's not certain. A lot of those people are, ahem, still kinda Christian and still kinda conservative, like second generation immigrants from Catholic Latin American countries. In any case this kind of condescending attitude tends to be unpopular. Especially when those promises haven't been fulfilled in the past.
There are still millions of uncounted votes in CA. Trump has gone from 72.6 million yesterday morning to 73.4 million today. Y'all really need to stop quoting these numbers as if they're anything but preliminary.
edit: Knee-jerk downvoting of a factual correction. Class act right here. Screen shot for those who have poor vision and/or analytical reasoning skills...
edit 2: Up to 75.5 million Trump votes and 72.4 million Harris votes now, and counting. Original commenter was off by over 5 million votes, yet I'm the one who got peppered with downvotes for daring to call it out. Bunch of crybaby, foot-stomping children.
There are 93,000 uncounted votes in Calfornia today. Hardly a spit in the ocean to this point.
2.5 million additional votes since this lovely chat, just for everyone's edification. Ain't math fun!!!
But. That doest matter, for those that dislike rabbit hole arguements.
...but prefer factual accuracy.
Such a meaningless excuse for lack of reason.
And an inability to admit a simple mistake.
You remind me 9f one of my former wives, and why she's former.
That certainly explains why there's multiple...
She was bipolar and would rant for days. Usually, because I wouldn't play her game. Sad, that she had to battle her demons that way, but there it is. My first wife died of a stroke in front of me, but do amuse yourself with your fantasies
Totally normal and well adjusted men refer to their dead wife as "former". Totally.
Now you question a death? Empathy must be dead. And yes, former is a way to identify.
In any case, you are very close to the end of your shelf life with me. If your wish is for me to block you, just say the word. Then you can scream to the wind.
I genuinely don't care what insular tactics you use to avoid admitting you made an elementary school math error. Just remember 93,000 does not equal 5,400,000 and everything will work out just as it should!
It's way more than 93,000.
Running from the Google results page that quotes the AP:
58% reporting
Kamala Harris 57.6% 6,108,150 votes
Donald Trump 39.8% 4,216,520 votes
Robert Kennedy 1.1% 116,628 votes
Jill Stein 0.8% 87,842 votes
Chase Oliver 0.4% 39,805 votes
Claudia De la Cruz 0.4% 37,673 votes
So, adding that all up, this 58% is 10,606,618 votes.
So 58/10,606,618 vs 100/x Solve for x.
10,606,618 x 100 / 58 = Around 18,287,272 votes total.
Meaning about 7,680,654 votes still to count.
Which is still meaningless to the point. But, thanks for your input.
Still can't admit you were wrong?
Bwhahaha. Still has nothing to do. With the point of my first messages in this string.
5.4 million.
https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status
That's exactly the same link I just provided for you. Are you trolling?
Didn't read it as a link from you. Using tablet.
Scroll down to the bottom of the page and please try to math better if you're going to respond again. This is getting frustrating.
When get around to it. Meanwhile, you can tell me how these missing votes change Trump's ceiling or Harris underperformance. You are only changing conditions, nothing more,
This is what I said:
Don't put words in my mouth.
In other words, meaningless to the point. Thanks for your input.
Sorry you can't process a single number on a spreadsheet. Must be hard.
Sorry if you cannot define a salient fact.
Fact: Millions of votes have not been counted.
Fact: You're physically incapable of admitting you were mistaken by several orders of magnitude.
Facts don't care about your feelings. Read more carefully next time.
It.makes.no.difference
Goddamn
Oh he does, he does.