With QBs that have retired in the last 5 years, there are some interesting HOF debates that I see coming up. Right now the sure-fire HOF guys are Brady, Brees, and Rodgers when he retires. The next tier, however, is a lot more interesting. You have Matt Ryan, Big Ben, and Rivers who are all very close. What's interesting is that according to Pro Football Reference's HOF Monitor, they all have fairly similar scores even though they have different resumes. Ryan has the MVP/All-Pro 1 season which is pretty much required unless you have 2 Super Bowls. Ben doesn't have a crazy MVP season, but he does have those 2 Super Bowls and 17 good years. Then Rivers has some crazy counting stats. I think that Ryan and Roethlisberger have a slight edge over Rivers but it is very hard to separate the 3. So my question is do we think any of them make it? If they do it opens up the debate for a lot of players in the future. Also, how do we think the HOF committee weighs Rings/MVPS/All-Pro teams? The media is always so focused on the rings but looking at the resumes of HOF QBs there are a lot more without rings than there are without All-Pro seasons.
Edit: Here is the PFR Monitor. The average HOF QB has a score of 108. Ryan has a score of 106, Ben has a score of 100, and Rivers is at 98.
Regarding Ben Roethlisberger, name me one eligible NFL QB who has started in three Super Bowls but is not in the Hall of Fame.
Also, I think it's fair to say that playing QB in the AFC North is more difficult than playing QB in the AFC West or NFC South. There's no climate-controlled indoor stadium or sunny southern California in the AFC North. Instead, some QBs get their brains bashed in by the Ravens and Bengals defenses, often in poor weather conditions. It's hard for a QB to keep his numbers pretty in a situation like that.
Overall, this is how I see the pre-2016 era of NFL QBs, listed in chronological order by entry into the league:
In on the first ballot
In, but not on the first ballot
Probably in
Borderline
Hall of Very Good
As for the QBs who have entered the NFL since 2016, Patrick Mahomes is the only one with a clear path to the Hall of Fame. The rest of them still have a lot to prove, but also a lot of time to prove it.