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They'll drag the Federal government with them this time. And fleeing to blue states only helps them do it.
False. Just as the south tried to stop the great migration because of the lost labor. Blue voters are the only thing keeping state governments alive. Even more so with the 2030 census. Red states need to show stagnant population growth or reduced. That'll impact their standing in the electoral college and representation in the house. Add in billions lose in tax revenues. If you want to stay fine. But blue states welcome all.
Unfortunately most of our blue states have shot themselves in the foot by making it too difficult to privately build dense housing while also not using public resources to build densely in sufficient amounts either. Blue states were generally already nicer places to live so they filled up and sprawled out a while back after that it’s been harder to keep stapling on homes near cities with decent economies. Whereas most red states are a lot emptier and still have that room to sprawl out development near their economic engines… so that’s where the building happens and the people are drawn in by more affordable housing. Eventually red states will sprawl out too much and the low hanging fruit will be gone but for the time being they’re still building like crazy in places like South Carolina.
Population is growing and the household sizes have been shrinking so more homes are needed to house fewer people. But existing housing stocks decay and possibly become unusable if not cared for and constantly need to be replenished. If blue states want to grow their population they have to overcome interest groups and obstacles opposed to either making it easier to build housing or the government itself building housing in sufficient quantities.
Zoning and housing laws can be changed. Blue states have more than enough space to expand. The bluer the state your arguments become less relevant. The Bluest states are already close to passing universal education and Healthcare for their population. Special interest groups lose power the bluer the states become. #makebluestatesdarkblue
The only way red states see the light is if they look around and see no young people staying and blue states thriving. Once again, the great migration forced them to socially give rights to minorities not federal laws.
I agree that those laws can be changed and I would like that to happen. There is room for expansion still in blue states - not so much horizontally because generally any place that could be sprawled out within a long commute near a city with a decent economy has had that happen already. People also won’t move to houses built in the middle of nowhere where no jobs are available. But, there can be much more vertical, denser building. Even returning to historic densities would be a big help in buffing blue states politically (ex. Manhattan had a peak population of 2.3 million in 1910 but is now only 1.7 million.) But there is a big NIMBY problem to overcome before getting there since homeowners have big incentives to oppose new housing whatever the source, and those special interests have not disappeared just because the states are blue.
Below are two photos of internal migration by state and new housing permits per capita. Since housing is THE major cost in most people’s budgets there is a flow going towards where housing is cheapest. Some have actually coined the term “New Great Migration” as many African Americans are now coming to the South on net. This is buffing the political power of those states even while the politics are rather rancid.