this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2023
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From a blind resume of QBs who is your pick for MVP?

POS Player Adj QB Rat QB Rat TD% INT% YPA AY/Cmp YAC/Cmp %AirY %YAC OnTgt% BadThr%
QB1 >!C.J. Stroud!< 117.82 102.9 5.0% 0.4% 8.1 7.2 5.9 54.7% 45.3% 67.7% 19.7%
QB2 >!R.Wilson!< 117.61 101.7 6.9% 1.7% 6.9 5.2 5.3 49.5% 50.5% 70.4% 13.3%
QB3 >!Bock Purdy!< 116.63 105.4 5.4% 2.2% 9.1 7.2 6.1 54.2% 45.8% 72.8% 17.0%
QB4 >!T.Tagovailoa!< 113.23 106.4 6.2% 2.3% 8.5 6.4 5.8 52.4% 47.6% 77.3% 12.0%
QB5 >!Jared Goff!< 112.65 96.4 4.1% 1.7% 7.4 5.9 5.0 54.4% 45.6% 77.8% 13.3%
QB6 >!D.Prescott!< 110.50 100.7 4.9% 1.9% 7.6 5.8 5.0 53.4% 46.6% 83.4% 10.9%
QB7 >!Josh Allen!< 109.92 99.6 5.6% 2.8% 7.5 5.8 4.7 55.4% 44.6% 77.8% 13.0%
QB8 >!Jalen Hurts!< 109.29 97 4.9% 2.6% 7.7 6.4 4.8 57.1% 42.9% 76.1% 11.5%
QB9 >!P.Mahomes!< 108.81 96.7 5.1% 2.4% 7.3 4.5 6.2 42.3% 57.7% 78.7% 11.1%
QB10 >!L.Jackson!< 108.36 100.8 3.6% 1.2% 7.7 5.9 4.9 54.9% 45.1% 73.9% 14.2%
QB11 >!J.Herbert!< 107.82 97.3 4.6% 1.4% 7.2 5.4 5.3 50.1% 49.9% 75.9% 15.2%
QB12 >!T.Lawrence!< 105.04 93.6 3.3% 1.5% 7.1 5.6 4.8 53.7% 46.3% 78.2% 15.5%

Keep in mind, this is just for fun.
Obviously stats in a vacuum are not a be-all, end-all.
And no rushing contributions are counted, which would also alter the results.

Guide:

  • Adj QB Rat = QB Rating taking away Spikes, Throwaways, Drops, or passes knocked down at the LOS.
  • AY/Cmp = Air Yards Per Completion
  • YAC/Cmp = YAC Per Completion
  • %AirY = Percentage of Passing Yards from Air Yards
  • %YAC = Percentage of Passing Yards from YAC
  • OnTgt% = On Target% Per Attempt, minus Spikes & Throwaways
  • BadThr% = Bad Throw% Per Attempt, minus Spikes & Throwaways

top 23 comments
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[–] EltonJohnSpartan@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Probably QB2, high TDs + low INTs usually = wins.

[–] Shauncore@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Just one note: QB Rating and Passer Rating are different. QBR is an ESPN stat on a 0-100 scale, whereas passer rating is different and what you are referring to here.

May be helpful to avoid confusion to call it passer rating rather than QB rating.

[–] NewBootGoofin88@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

This is a good start. The MVP will continue to go to the best QB that is also on a playoff team. It's too early to say for certain which teams are playoff teams...but that will likely eliminate about half the QBs you selected

[–] mab6710@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Trick question, the obvious answer is Zach 'Motherfucking MILF-Hunter' Wilson

[–] BungoPlease@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Inject that shit directly into my veins dog

[–] PleasantParfait48@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

This is kinda cool, but rushing stats should be included as well - its a big part of the game for about half the guys on this list!

[–] MugiwaraJinbe@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Well going blindly, QB9 is clearly garbage and should retire today.

[–] Quicksilver7837@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Whats the reasoning for excluding rushing yards and rushing TDs? Dual threats like Hurts, Jackson, Allen etc. are going to have some of their passing production "robbed" because of what they do on the ground. What they do on the ground is part of their "resume" and should be included when discussing MVP consideration.

[–] Best_Limit5882@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

I know the game happened and you can't just throw it away like that, but I can't help but wonder where Dak would stack up on this if the 49ers game didn't happen

[–] BWasTaken@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

But but the Broncos need to dump Russ immediately!! He’s holding the franchise back!! /s

Thank you for putting this together. Russ is “fixed”, this team just needs consistency at this point.

[–] ManholtAgain@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago
[–] PolackMike@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

I'd have to go with QB1. Lowest interception rate by far with the other stats being comparable.

[–] Fuqwon@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

I feel like Mahomes has entered that Peyton Manning space where unless someone else is seriously standing out or doing something exceptional, voters a just like "Fuck it, give it to Mahomes."

[–] athrowawayiguesslol@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Taking away throwaways and batted passes doesn’t make much sense. QB skill effects the frequency of both

[–] Beepn_Boops@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Just looking at the raw numbers, I picked Tua. Second highest TD% & YPA, with near-top on target, and average to low bad throws.

Seemed like the best combination of stats.

[–] gv111111@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Bryce Young 😢

You hid their name, which is their most important stat

[–] FlowVoids@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

But an MVP resume heavily weighs team record.

Winning is quite important for winning mvp lol

[–] redditaccount224488@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

While I applaud the effort that went into this post, the stats you chose to use are... not great.

QB rating is a bad stat, for a variety of reasons. Adjusting it by removing spikes is good, but that's a very minor improvement to a bad stat. Removing knocked down passes and throwaways is bizarre, and might make the stat worse, not better.

On target percentage / bad throw percentage are useful, but come with the caveat that they aren't adjusted for throw difficulty. QBs who throw a lot of checkdowns will do well in these stats, but poorly in actual performance. This is also one of the reasons why QB rating is bad; it rewards QBs for completing a lot of short, inefficient passes.

Separating YAC from QB performance is also very difficult to do statistically, and really requires game charting and/or individual grading (eg PFF) to be done properly. Does the QB deserve credit for a WR who breaks 3 tackles and takes a quick slant 60 yards to the house? No. But does the QB deserve credit for a perfectly placed post that the WR catches in stride and houses? Yes.

At the end of the day, you'd be better off doing this with some combination of EPA, DVOA, ANY/A, and PFF grades. All of these are better than what you're using. And yes, PFF grades are surprisingly good; this is coming from someone that used to slam their methodology. You can read more about the value of various QB statistics here.

Note: when I say a stat is "better" or "worse", I mean a higher/lower correlation with winning, and/or points scored, and/or future performance.

[–] AshBlackstone78@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

This doesn’t really account for guys who are volume passers vs guys who run an offense that is based on the run.

Bad take.

[–] CuriousCucumber88@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Should the name “MVP” be taken away? The most ’valuable’ player rarely even gets ins the award.

PJ Walker is getting robbed of a MVP