Already is.
And wtf graphs
this post was submitted on 11 May 2026
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When I think about this comic, it's always the alt-text that comes to mind:
By the third trimester, there will be hundreds of babies inside you.
XKCD is gold
At her current rate of growth, my niece will weigh 290,000 pounds by the time she’s 10 years old.
It already is. The headline is missing "desktop".
"If these trends continue..... Eyyyyy!"
I had sex 20 minutes ago. If these trends continue I will have sex every hour until the end of time. /s
This guy fucks.
Was it good?
I was there so that’s a solid no. It would’ve been much better if I wasn’t there.
Dang. Sounds hot.
Is it possible to learn this power...
Nope, it only happens when I’m around women that make horrible life choices.
Yes, that's correct. If you cherrypick data and extrapolate your preferred assumptions about it you can make it say the thing you want.
Like that post on that other site we don’t talk about where that guy decided to make the claim that Patrick Mahomes is average if you just make his stats average.
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Extrapolated data aside, Linux is already the dominant OS (really, family of operating systems, since Debian, RHEL, etc. are separate operating systems) for servers. Additionally, the majority of smartphones run Android, which uses the Linux kernel. And yes, everyone knows, it's as much of a Linux distribution as iOS is based on BSD, but still.
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The decade of the year of the Linux desktop
There really just isn't enough data here to make those conclusions.
For example, here's the Steam survey data plotted without the added estimated graph lines.
Mostly flat, slow trend upwards, slightly sharper increase more recently.
That could flatline again, curve back down, grow way slower, grow way faster, etc. There's just not enough data there to predict the next 4X as long amount of time anywhere close to accurately.
Lol, it certainly won't if you only give us the start of the image!
Here. I filled it in for you and it took, like, 10 seconds?
Yep. People don't understand that data analysis and social anthropology don't pair well together. If they did, life would be a lot simpler because crystal ball. As it is, this data gives zero insight into what tech, society, and events will do in the upcoming decade. All variables are entirely unpredictable and history shows us time and time again that only a fool would try factor or predict them.
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What? Linux is the dominant OS right now.
Finally. 2036 is the year of the Linux desktop
FOSS isn’t a race, FOSS is plant life…it doesn’t need to dominate or win anything. It just needs to survive.
FOSS is already in most proprietary software already and Linux powers most devices.
Year of the Linux desktop is a pointless metric.
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It already is.
(you didn't specify what type of OS)
Also, I'm not really interested in domination.
Windows becoming a Linux distribution.
not what I want, I want Windows (as in, the existing Windows codebase) to become FOSS, if that happened, we would no longer need to care about anyone switching to Linux, in fact I might then install a FOSS Windows myself
Last I checked, their APIs are pretty terrible. Though that was over a decade ago.
it would be awesome to have windows hardware drivers working in fossland though
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imagines tux with a leather whip giving windows a good run for it’s naughty boy money
Is it getting warm in here or is that just me?
(checks climate chart) ...it's not just you, unfortunately
You're not alone
Unfortunately trends never stay. I think it takes more than just 10 years to dominate Linux in the desktop market. If it ever happens. I mean not even Apple could break it, and that is a huge company. There is a point when the growth slow down. In example the initial adoption rate is often higher than the last remaining. We don't even know what Microsoft will do. Remember Windows XP? The trends were different then. Remember Windows 8? Adoption rate doesn't work like a simple graph.
Linux desktop does not need to be "dominant", it just needs big enough to be "relevant". I would be flabbergasted if we reach 30% in 20 years.
@thingsiplay exactly! that was my point to writing this article: that it should soon be relevant enough :)
This isn't totally crazy. Microsoft is heavily invested in the AI bubble and will not go as they will have less money to fund windows, which is already losing all of its competitive edges and is not working right. The niche is where windows will be necessary instead of a choice that can easily be done away with are going to shrink possibly all the way down to Legacy business application support at which point even then it would be a heterogeneous environment at those companies
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