NFL

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#TONIGHT'S GUESTS

I honestly believe that other than actually winning the Super Bowl, there's no better time for an NFL fanbase than the first years of a team having a young QB that looks like they might be "the guy" of the future

I'd argue it's even better than being a perennial playoff powerhouse or a team that continually is seen as a favorite

Less stress. If you're a true contender with an experienced QB, every loss kills you. If you lose with a young QB doing something idiotic but they put up 300 yards and 3 TDs, you still leave the game optimistic. I call this the Josh Allen. I definitely feel like the Bills fanbase were happier two years ago when Allen was breaking out compared to now when he's seen as a star QB who should be leading the Bills to the Super Bowl.

Josh strikes me as Mad Dog 20/20. Maybe OG formula Four Loko

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

The NFC now has 4 teams with a 95%+ chance of making the playoffs.

The 5th through 7th teams are also highly probably between 74-83%

The only other team with even a shot at sneaking into the playoffs with a 20%+ probability in the NFC, is TB.

There are 8 NFC teams 2+ games below .500 already

The NFC playoffs will likely feature, SF, PHI, DAL, DET, MIN, SEA and probably NO and if not NO, it will be TB... That's basically your NFC playoff field for 2023, only seeding left to decide.

Meanwhile over in the AFC the picture couldn't me more unclear beyond the Chiefs.

The Chiefs now have a 99% playoff chance and 60% chance of being the 1 seed, beyond that...

There are 10 teams between 25% and 90% fighting for the final 6 spots.... and no one else above 90%.

More crazy, there are 12 teams in the AFC within 2 games of each other with 8 weeks left. (records ranging from 6-3 to 4-5)

There are only 3 teams in the AFC 2+ games below .500

The AFC could realistically end up with 10 or more teams over .500 this year, with only 7 of them obviously able to make the playoffs.

Anyway, I just thought it was interesting how completely different the conferences are shaping up as we head toward the back stretch.

With the NFC playoff picture almost completely decided already, while over in the AFC it looks like almost every team will be in the playoff hunt headed into the final couple weeks if things keep going the same direction.

vs. Bears vs. Packers @ Saints @ Bears vs. Broncos

The race for the top two seeds in the NFC is going to be very interesting.

Dan Campbell is at the point of being a Chuck Norris meme with how many he has. These are all not only real calls but these were ALL successful calls as well: (not in any order)

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• Up 7-0 in the 1st quarter, Dan Campbell called an onside kick against the Rams.
• Dan Campbell called a fake punt on the same drive as the onside kick
• Dan Campbell called a second fake punt in the same game in the 3rd quarter
• Dan Campbell called a fake punt from his own 17 yard line, 5 minutes into the 2023 season against the defending super bowl champions.
• Dan Campbell called a run play out of shot gun on 4th and 5 in the 1st quarter vs the Chargers
• Up 7 points in the 3rd, Dan Campbell went for it from his own 27 yard line on a 4th and 8 against the Vikings
• In the same game to ice it on 3rd and 7 with about 1:30 left in the 4th, Dan Campbell calls a pass play to Penei Sewell.. the offensive tackle.
• 4th and 3 from their own 35 - Dan Campbell calls a fake punt against the Seahawks in the 1st quarter
• On 4th and 1, instead of kicking the field goal, Dan Campbell goes for it and prevents Aaron Rodgers another shot, eliminating them from reaching the playoffs.

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Not game related but also fun MCDC facts:

• Dan Campbell drinks 40 ounces of coffee and 4 shots of espresso per day.
• Dan Campbell wanted an actual live lion on the sidelines for home games but said "the league frowns on that"

2014 (5-2):

*First of 9 consecutive losses to Kansas City

2015 (3-9):

2016 (4-9):

*Browns' lone win during their 1-31 stretch between 2016-2017

2017 (3-5):

2018 (6-1 Regular Season, 1-0 Playoffs):

*The last time it truly felt great to be a Chargers fan

2019 (2-9):

2020 (5-7):

2021 (5-5):

2022 (7-5 Regular Season, 0-1 Playoffs):

2023 (2-4):

Chargers' Winning Percentage in All One Score-Games Since 2014 - .429 (.407 with Rivers, .450 with Herbert, 1.000 with TyGOAT Taylor)

Gibbs has 676 total yards on 121 touches averaging 5.6 yards a touch

Bijan has 820 total yards with 5.3 a touch.

Gibbs has been on a tear since returning from injury averaging 142 total yards the last 3 games. It took him a few weeks to get up to nfl speed and it looks like he’s taken off, his game breaking speed, recieving ability, ability to take hits and is among the top of the league in broken tackles.

Bijan has looked fantastic too. Unreal agility and elusiveness, pass catching ability, and has shown he can be a bell cow too. But he doesn’t have the top speed that Gibbs possesses, and he might not be in the best spot in Atlanta

Going into the draft it was looked at as Bijan was a generational running back, kind of a Saquon kind of back, and Gibbs was more of a 10-15 touches a game outside the tackles speed back, and will never be a workhorse or carry a load.

I think the view on him has changed. I know it’s very early in his career but Gibbs looks to be showing very similar flashes to guys like Jamaal Charles, and Chris Johnson.

Bijan was picked 8th Gibbs was taken 12th. Who would you rather have regardless of draft position and who do you think will end up being the better player?

I’ve seen a lot of comments about how the GM and Salah need to go because of how the roster is getting wasted. I can understand the GM, but what exactly is Salah supposed to do? Defensive coach whose defense is playing great. He’s stuck with a young qb who wasnt supposed to be playing this year, made worse by an o-line that isn’t exactly stellar. Can’t bench him because there’s nothing better on that roster. Salah has said all the right things publicly by trying to give Zach confidence even if they don’t really believe in him. Seems like he’s just stuck in a no-win scenario and will end up scapegoated for it

• Week 2 vs. Cleveland: turnover on downs at 1:05.
• Week 3 at Las Vegas: interception at 0:12.
• Week 5 vs. Baltimore: fumble at 1:02, turnover on downs (TJ Watt sack) at 0:20
• Week 9 vs. Tennessee: turnover on downs at 2:14, interception at 0:11.
• Week 10 vs. Green Bay: interception at 3:32, interception at 0:03.

Both without their long time QB's (cam and brady). Will Washington hire bill next year or where will he go?

For three straight years, the Falcons have gone 4-6 through ten games

For three straight years, that sixth loss has included the opponent winning with a final score of 25.

• Patriots 25, Falcons 0

• Panthers 25, Falcons 15

• Cardinals 25, Falcons 23

Notice I didn't say "scripted." No, the players aren't given scripts to rehearse beforehand. Rather, everyone involved, including both refs and players, go along with the showbiz of it all and Vegas makes a killing in the process, all while fixating people on a soap opera. These players make guaranteed money. They're not paid to win they're paid to perform just like WWE. It's the same difference between that and MMA, which is Ronda Rousey went to WWE. Notice how all the biggest games go against where the public bets. It's eyebrow-raising, at the very least, to see the NFL promoting the very sportsbooks that collect wagers on its games.

This doesn't even get to the documented facts that the NFL is a revenue-sharing business model where every team is a subsidiary and not a separate franchise, paid by annual TV deals. The Third Circuit court case deeming the NFL is "sports entertainment" and not "sport." And the handful of former players who have blown the whistle (SB MVP Dwight Smith, Junior Galette, Chris Borland, Earl Campbell, Larry Johnson).

You see people following storylines only tangentially related to the actual games - who's dating who, what this guy said about another guy, this guy's legal troubles, etc - and start to think symmetrically to the Roman Circus. Which was there as an outlet for the masses so they stopped questioning what the emperor was doing. No, it's not scripted. But it's fixed for Vegas and most certainly exploited to fixate men on their own soap operas.

I can't remember the last time I've seen someone run the ball back, but you might as well just spot the ball at the 20 instead of wasting a play.