NFL

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I'm using the Colley Matrix iteration process (https://www.colleyrankings.com/method.html)

To summarize, you take the win percentage of every team and correct it against the win percentage of their opponents. Then you have a new win percentage. And I repeat that process until the correction factor is below 0.01%. Essential this is what I would expect the win percentages to be if the teams played an average team every week.

On this post from a couple of years ago most people in the comments were saying Sean Payton will eventually go into the HOF…did he ruin his legacy by going to Denver?

https://reddit.com/r/nfl/s/uACrUEI8Dq

In 2016, Christian McCaffrey set the single season record for receptions by a running back with 116 catches.

Alvin Kamara has 35 receptions through 4 games this year (8.75 receptions per game). If he were to maintain his current pace for the Saints' remaining 10 games, he'd finish with 123 catches.

There was a post yesterday about Zach having a better 4th quarter passer rating than Brock Purdy and I noticed in the linked pro-football-reference stats page that his 4th down passer rating split was shockingly high, so I decided to see where it ranked all-time (min 25 attempts). Once he figures it out on the other three downs its over for the rest of you hoes

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Football is generally known as the league with the most ~~parody~~ parity because of the draft+salary cap (though we've seen this can be offset with franchise QBs), while baseball with a looser salary cap and a less consequential draft makes it more like European soccer.

However this year's world series is featuring two teams who were among the league's worst just two years prior.

What's the closest NFL equivalent?

2023 ANY/A Leaders

Link

All-Time ANY/A Leaders with Adjusted Stats

Link

Adjusted stats are corrected for each individual season, such that 100 in any category represents the league average for that year.

Year-by-Year Adjusted ANY/A Leaders since 2000

Link

For people asking, EPA/play means Expected Points Added per play. For example, with current data, the Dolphins are expected to earn 1 point for every 5 offensive plays they run; teams playing against the Browns are expected to lose a point for every 5 plays against their defense.

Who has been a standout on your team but has gone under the radar of the national media and most fans?

I pull all the odds from Draftkings before each week kicks off. Unfortunately I had to cut the chart off at +10,000 because otherwise it gets too messy, so the bottom teams drop off. If I made it a log scale instead, everything would fit but you wouldn’t see the gap between the good teams and bad teams. Any advise on how to improve this is appreciated. Thanks guys!

Biggest Risers:

Vikings : ⬆️27.78%

Eagles: ⬆️25.00%

Ravens : ⬆️22.22%

Steelers: ⬆️18.75%

Seahawks: ⬆️12.50%

Biggest Fallers:

Commanders: ⬇️-92.31%

Raiders: ⬇️-53.85%

Titans: ⬇️-44.44%

Bills: ⬇️-40.00%

Buccaneers: ⬇️-38.46%

Saints: ⬇️-36.36%

Chargers: ⬇️-33.33%

Game situation: 2:26 left in 4Q, Vikings up 5 and trying to run as much clock as possible. 3rd and 3 at SF 49:

(2:26) (Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short right to J.Addison to SF 36 for 13 yards (T.Hufanga). Penalty on SF-I.Oliver, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Vikings convert and decline the penalty. Without the penalty, the clock would have ran all the way to the 2-minute warning. Instead, the clock was stopped and the Vikings were forced to run another play, thereby giving the 49ers a free timeout:

(2:19) C.Akers left end to SF 4 0 for -4 yards (F.Warner, T.Gipson).

This rule comes from Section 3 article 2 part (e) of the NFL rulebook:

If the game clock is stopped after a down in which there was a foul by either team, following enforcement or declination of a penalty, the game clock will start as if the foul had not occurred, except that the clock will start on the snap if:

the foul occurs after the two-minute warning of the first half;

the foul occurs inside the last five minutes of the second half; or

the offense commits a foul after the ball is made ready for play, and causes the clock to stop before a snap, during the fourth quarter or overtime; or

a specific rule prescribes otherwise.

Since this defensive foul occurred in the last 5 minutes, the clock remains stopped until the next snap. Is this an unfair advantage to give teams to stop the clock? Could a team intentionally commit an offsides penalty to get an extra timeout?

Purdy’s splits

Wilson’s splits