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Uncertainty looms as last oil tanker from Middle East arrives in California
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 06 May 2026
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The stock market jumped around 1.5% today, so I have to assume this is Good Aktuly.
It is very funny that Trump's policy towards Cuba and California have so many intersections.
Is there anything to imply the stock market actually gives a damn about external/macro cost pressures? Its like all fundamentals are out the window. At this point the companies are comfortable cranking their prices to offset any incurred costs at a moment notice, customers are used to seeing it. They'll roll their eyes, bitch a little, and buy the product anyway.
I have to think there will be a tipping point when people straight up can't afford things, but right now there doesn't seem to be a tangible ceiling.
I just assume most investors are idiot gamblers that are making decisions based on vibes, either because they believe that's a smart strategy, or because they think they can beat the other idiot gamblers. And I see increasingly little evidence contradicting that assumption.
The biggest driver of the stock market right now is (relative to this problem) lower interest rates and high inflation. If you have money, parking it in a savings account earning 3% at best is losing money. Inflation is devaluing that money in the account with the inflation rate currently at 3.26%. Low short term interest rates on US Treasuries mean the 3.77% yield is just barely outpacing inflation.
So where do you go for a better return? The US stock market. trump is destroying our nation, but even the boring S&P500 index funds are, as of today's market closing, returning 7.59% YTD (since Jan 1 2026)!
If you had put $1000 in a boring S&P500 index fund on Jan 1 of this year, it would now be worth $1075.90.
Compare that to something silly like crypto. Lets take Bitcoin for example:
If you had put $1000 in Bitcoin on Jan 1 of this year, it would now be worth $928 as Bitcon is down 7.2% YTD (since Jan 1 2026).
Even physical gold which has performed very well recently is only up 8.66% YTD, which is good, but gold is a hedge, not a great investment.
Where else beside the US stock market are you getting even close to these returns with this level (or lower) of risk?
Yep, good points. I was thinking more of the speculators pumping up AI along with the wild reactions every time Trump expels his latest bullshit. But the base of the market could well be just people following the reasonable advice that "time in the market beats timing the market".
Ask Lehman or Enron. Ask all the companies that were face-planting during COVID. There's definitely a breaking point that firms can hit, dependent on who their creditors are and how much revenue they command in a given moment.
The Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent