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The biggest threat to your life from climate change is this kind of doomerism making you suicidal. I've been down that road myself.
Either get off your ass and do something about it or stop worrying about it. You're not helping anyone by making yourself sad.
I'm not suicidal.
I'm not saying you are. You missed my point entirely.
I'm asking for coping methods or strategies. For example, I sing a lot because it doesn't contribute anything to capitalism and more fossil fuels being released, and it releases oxytocin so it makes me feel good. I also read and spend time with others, smoke cannabis, take psilocybin.
That we don't want to die, and don't want the planet to die, shows that we are very much not suicidal so it's just weird you brought that up at all lol.
related... There are now ac/heat pump mini split units that are set up to be linked directly to solar panel systems and run offgrid or with grid assist.
This is great for a few reasons:
I've had my eye on a system from Airspool here in the US - should help with these warmer summers and help offset a little of the heating need in the winter too.
I would look into a full central system - but I have a relatively new gas furnace and can't justify replacing it and dealing with all the required electrical work.
I'm a silly goose with young kids and I've been head-in-the-sand trying to deal with my own survival. Once I had an iota of stability, I started to let the outside world in again and often wish I hadn't.
I estimate I live in a place least likely to be dramatically affected by climate change, early on. It's not like I'm in Florida and can't afford to insure my home any longer because of hurricane risk. It's not like I'm likely to be one of the 1.2 billion climate refugees by 2050.
So I try to take little steps to get prepared for something I never thought I'd need to be prepared for. We're growing more and more of our own food, we're expanding our water/food stores and storage. We plan to get a solar system soon (so we're the 1/10 that makes it through an extended grid outage), while global supply chains still function.
I've started a little (20TB) apocalypse library, full of illustrated guides, youtube videos, books, and resources.
My biggest stumbling block is starting community. I generally don't like people and as you've seen in this thread, most people don't take climate change seriously.
And, as someone else said... weed and time in nature.
Does it hit anyone else like a bolt of lightning that probably I - we - won't die of old age?
Wait, do you actually believe this?
Yes. I am friends with ecological scientists, biologists, soil scientists, ornithologists, and other various environmental researchers. The rest of my natural life would be ~40-50 years. We probably have 10-20 at most. Remember, the heating is exponential and delayed, and we've also exceeded several other planetary boundaries. Our governments are decades too late. We are literally already in the middle of an extinction event.
Even if everyone TODAY stopped burning all fossil fuels, we'd still have to sequester millions of tons of carbon in 10-20 years with no infrastructure for it. To do this will release more greenhouse gases. Amd we still have to address the 9 other planetary boundaries we've crossed including ocean acidification, soil destruction, and pollution.
The absolute best shot we have is to deflect a percentage of the sun's rays from ever reaching earth with some kind of space blanket or shield. Likely we will just inject sulfur into the atmosphere with unknown consequences.
That you don't realize how bad it is, is the sadder thing. We have seriously failed in educating people about science. Chemical reactions need specific energy requirements to work, which means specific temperatures. It's a big deal to our very cells themselves that the planet is getting hotter. And again, that is only 1 planetary boundary and we have crossed others.
You can literally see footage online of people's housing falling into the ocean, and their property wasn't oceanfront when they bought it. You can look u0 articles about billions of sea life boiling alive off the oregon coast and baby eagles flinging themselves from their nests to die due to heat. You can see the recent article about Dubai being beyond the wet bulb temp for humans to survive. That's not normal, ya'll. None of this is normal.
But whatever, it's too late. Enjoy your remaining years as much as you can, and don't forget you can always starve yourself to death for free if you don't have a bullet. Good luck everyone.
This is doommongering nonsense.
I'm no climate change denier at all, but the idea that the planet is basically going to be unliveable in 10-20 years is ludicrous.
Even the most pessimistic of scientists don't believe that.
AMOC collapse could happen as soon as 2025.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
Scientists have been forced to give "optimistic" findings relating to climate change for decades because we were told not to scaremonger. We were told no one would believe us. Well, no one believed us anyway (see: you) and now our conservative estimates are turning out to be wildly too conservative. It is exponentially getting worse and we didn't consider numerous cascading events like the methane bubbles in the arctic permafrost.
We are literally already in the middle of a sixth extinction event relating to passing 6-8 of 9-10 planetary boundaries. It's not doomerism, it's literally reality. Measurably and empirically happening.
Wikipedias page on AMOC is much less pessimistic:
High-quality Earth system models indicate a collapse is unlikely and would only become probable if high levels of warming (≥4 °C (7.2 °F))[14] are sustained long after 2100.[18][19][20] Some paleoceanographic research seems to support this idea.[21][22] Some researchers fear the complex models are too stable[23] and that lower-complexity projections pointing to an earlier collapse are more accurate.[24][25] One of those projections suggests AMOC collapse could happen around 2057[26] but many scientists are skeptical of the projection.[27]
I would very much doubt an actual collapse happens anytime soon.
That's wikipedia though, not a scientific article, and it acknowledges that many think it will happen sooner.
Here's an article from CNN that is hours old, based on a new study, which is confident AMOC collapse will happen by 2037-2050 https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing
That's pretty soon.
Where did you get the idea that you’re not going to die of old age?
Depends on the rapidity of the onset of the negative effects of climate change. If it’s slow, we’re gonna lose a lot of people, but we’ll be able to preserve some form of civilization. The worst affected will be the usual poorer people and those who can’t geographically escape the heat for whatever reason.
Worst scenario is rapid onset that disrupts the global network of food, energy, manufacturing, medicines, materials, etc. that literally keep everything working. If that goes tits up in an uncontrolled way just plan on losing a very significant chunk of the world’s population very fast. At a certain tipping point we also lose the people that know how to make things work. Modern society works because we have the ability to free some people from manual labor and subsistence existence to take on highly specialized learning. From fixing the grid, to doctors, to IT specialists, to the academics that teach these specialists. Lose enough of them and you lose the knowledge of how to do anything that makes modern civilization work.
So it all depends on your views if you think you’ll make it to old age. Do you think the world will collapse quickly or will it be a controlled descent? It certainly doesn’t look like we’re going to solve a damn thing regarding anthropogenic climate change, much less reverse anything, and we’re already stuck facing the damaging climate changes we started.
If it’s slow, we’re gonna lose a lot of people, but we’ll be able to preserve some form of civilization.
Assuming this is the best case scenario, are you willing to make a prediction about number of deaths by a certain year?
The reason I ask is because I think climate change alarmism is an unscientific, nonfalsifiable system of beliefs that don't match reality.
And part of that is that people never make solid predictions. They resist it. Are you willing to make a solid prediction with an actual timeline on it, given this is your best case scenario?
It certainly doesn’t look like we’re going to solve a damn thing regarding anthropogenic climate change, much less reverse anything, and we’re already stuck facing the damaging climate changes we started.
Yeah we're definitely not going to reverse climate change.
As far as I can tell, the main disrupting effects of climate change are going to be higher sea levels. So lots of people will have to move, or protect their cities with dikes.
There will be more farmland than before, given the effects of CO2 on plant growth.
I don't see any scenario where it leads to a collapse of civilization.
Hah, you’re ridiculous.
We can’t even predict the weather yet you want me to give you timelines for climate change impact and entire geopolitical and worldwide logistical systems. Not even supercomputers can predict that.
Congrats on your manufactured, pseudo-intellectual “gotcha”. Why don’t you go learn about chaotic systems and the study of anthropogenic climate change and make your own predictions…
Oh, and for the record, if we’re all cheering about redrawn beachfront property being the worst of it in a century I’ll eat my hat. If I’m right, well…you’ll probably be hungry enough to eat yours.
Warmer seas = more energy in the seas = bigger storms, bigger droughts etc. that’s what we’re seeing already and will be getting worse in the near term. Sea levels - we don’t know enough about the deep structure of Antarctica to put a timeline on. Recent discoveries have shortened thinking as there was liquid water in areas we didn’t expect.
Youre a certifiable idiot.
I don‘t. I‘m accepting that i, as an individual, will not be able to impact it and so i‘m pretty much going with it. Humanity will survive, thats for sure but i make sure to make the most of it in the time where it‘s still bearable.
I am educated in science and I do not think humanity will survive, no. Most megafauna will probably die out. There are ~10 planetary boundaries and we've crossed a lot of them. Earthquakes and volcanoes will start picking up. AMOC collapse could be as soon as 2025.
Then you should recall that some of the largest megafauna ever lived for tens of millions of years at much higher temperatures(and therefore sea levels)
At higher temps that changed over thousands of years gradually. This is not that. And that's even if "high temp" was the ONLY planetary boundary being crossed. It is not. There are numerous SIMULTANEOUS extinction events happening. And we know megafauna isn't surviving this time because we are in the middle of a major extinction event already. Millions of sea life and millions and millions of birds and insects are dead already, from being boiled alive in the ocean to starvation to pollution to bird flu.
Extinction of individual unfit species doesn't mean the total collapse of life.
Individual unfit species like ALL birds and ALL insects and ALL sea life and ALL fish? Not including ALL corals and ALL trees (forest fires). Lol what's left, really? In terms of biomass, that's like, most of it.
That we are in an extinction event is widely known in the scientific community.
https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/09/human-driven-mass-extinction-eliminating-entire-genera
^There, read up. Sorry to break the news to you.
like ALL birds and ALL insects and ALL sea life and ALL fish?
Where does it say that???
Not including ALL corals and ALL trees (forest fires).
Coral life is dying for the most part, but not everywhere
Global forest area loss has significantly slowed, and seems to be continuing to go down
Wildfires are not a significant risk to global forest coverage.
What I mean is that ALL species in those categories are affected. It's not 1 or 3 species, it's affecting literally every species across those Phylla. Your claim was that is was a few unfit species. It's not, it's all the species.
Several tree species in the US are undergoing extinction due to forest fires, including the Redwoods: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/23/extinct-tree-species-sequoias/
The coral thing you posted is kinda laughable, sorry to be rude when you're facing total annihilation of most life on this planet, but I have been chuckling about that for a couple of minutes. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-confirms-4th-global-coral-bleaching-event
"From February 2023 to April 2024, significant coral bleaching has been documented in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of each major ocean basin," said Derek Manzello, Ph.D., NOAA CRW coordinator.
“Climate model predictions for coral reefs have been suggesting for years that bleaching impacts would increase in frequency and magnitude as the ocean warms,” said Jennifer Koss, director of NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP).
The 2023 heatwave in Florida was unprecedented. It started earlier, lasted longer and was more severe than any previous event in that region.
NOAA made significant strides to offset some of the negative impacts of global climate change and local stressors on Florida’s corals, including moving coral nurseries to deeper, cooler waters and deploying sunshades to protect corals in other areas.
(Do you see how NOAA was unable to fix the root cause of bleaching at any level? This is our governments failing us)
Global forest area LOSS has slowed. Meaning how much we are losing is going down, but we are still losing it.
Boreal forests in regions all over the world have been experiencing the worst wildfires in recorded history in 2023, according to new research.
The total wildfire emissions for 2023 is estimated to be almost 410 megatonnes, the highest on record for Canada by a wide margin, according to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service dataset, which provides information on the location, intensity, and estimated emission of wildfires around the world. The previous annual record was set in 2014 at 138 megatonnes of carbon.
It isn't even close to the end of 2024 fire season so I gave an article from 2023.
What I mean is that ALL species in those categories are affected.
Effected yes, going extinct? No.
We are specifically talking about if all life will be wiped out.
Yes, it will be. Where is your confusion here?
Stuff was not as bad before.
Now stuff pretty bad.
We have done nothing to deal with that and in fact are still just making stuff worse (maybe some stuff is not making stuff worse at the same rate as before)
Stuff gets worse exponentially
Already extinction in the millions and billions is happening
Will extinct more next year at an exponential rate, bc we have done nothing and all solutions will take decades
All those species are affected meaning they are dying.
Ecology means that's bad, stuff relies on each other
Chemistry means that's bad, stuff relies on each other and certain Temps to happen
All around all science says, it's bad
Nothing you've shown says that 100% of species will go extinct xd
Okay, well you're free to believe as you'd like. I'm fine with agreeing to disagree. The math checks out really clearly to me, "exponentially getting worse" is pretty clear in meaning.
If a population exponentially grows does that mean it will continue infinitely? Why would the reverse be certain to be different?
If a population is given infinite resources, sure, theoretically. The energy that comes from the sun is cumulative and may as well be considered infinite since the sun isn't going out any time soon. Did you really think that was a gotchya?
Look at every other planet. That ours happens to be energetically at a temp to support life is the exception. The rule in the universe is that it's literally unlivable for us everywhere else we know of. Literally. This is pretty much it.
If a population is given infinite resources, sure, theoretically.
I didn't say they were given infinite resources. I said if a population is growing exponentially does that mean it will continue to do so.
The energy that comes from the sun is cumulative and may as well be considered infinite since the sun isn't going out any time soon.
Yeah?
Did you really think that was a gotchya?
What? It was a question you didn't answer. Why do you assume just because something is exponential that it will continue. Another example- transistor size in processors exponentially shrinks. Does that mean eventually it's going to reach zero nm? (hint the answer is no)
I'm also not saying that this disproves something can exponentially fall to zero. I'm just saying, stating the current relationship doesn't guarantee it will continue.
Look at every other planet. That ours happens to be energetically at a temp to support life is the exception.
Earth is very far removed from other planets in terms of atmospheric conditions.
If given infinite resources, yes. I answered you.
The current population will likely be zero, perhaps simply approaching the limit of zero if tardigrades and extremophiles survive. But in terms of multicellular life, yeah, there can be a zero for sure. Because the energy from the sun can theoretically increase exponentially.
It would be cool if our ozone was working perfectly, then, huh? But it's not any more, and is getting worse: https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/topics/in-depth/climate-change-mitigation-reducing-emissions/current-state-of-the-ozone-layer
If given infinite resources, yes. I answered you.
I again didn't ask that. Its also not true for all populations(such as human populations)
The current population will likely be zero, perhaps simply approaching the limit of zero if tardigrades and extremophiles survive. But in terms of multicellular life, yeah, there can be a zero for sure.
I did ask if there can be either. I asked why you assume it would be.
It would be cool if our ozone was working perfectly, then, huh? But it’s not any more, and is getting worse:
That source seems to indicate that they're not entirely sure why it is getting worse, but it is a combination of factors. However NASA and the the UN say recovery of the ozone layer is still on track for 2040.
I explained why right after that next sentence if you keep reading
The ozone layer was worse in 2023 compared to 2022 so idk how that's "on track" but okay
Because if you read, it was predicted to be an anomaly and not a trend
They don't know what's causing that anomaly. So it could indeed be a trend.
It could be, but why do you assume it is?
Uh, what? Earthquakes and volcanoes due to climate changes?
AMOC collapse could be as soon as 2025.
No. I also read that. There was a prediction that AMOC collapse might be inevitable by 2025 and take a couple centuries to happen.
We have pretty good evidence the currents are slowing, but no real data to predict if and when it might stop. A couple researchers made a prediction that is not currently accepted by the field. It’s just pretty dire, but would affect a few generations from now even if true
No, it won't take a couple of centuries to happen, you misread. The collapse will most likely happen before 2050 according to new research which speeds up the timeline on the old research. The various environmental fields do actually agree on this and it's accepted.
The impacts of an AMOC collapse would leave parts of the world unrecognizable.
In the decades after a collapse, Arctic ice would start creeping south, and after 100 years, would extend all the way down to the southern coast of England. Europe’s average temperature would plunge, as would North America’s – including parts of the US. The Amazon rainforest would see a complete reversal in its seasons; the current dry season would become the rainy months, and vice versa.
That means the collapse will happen, with immediate consequences as well as consequences that won't stabilize for over 100 years, not taking into account other destabilizing forces. Like can you read?
Nothing you quoted even says it will happen, much less that the effects will be immediate
Lol
