We're roughly 15 games into the season, which is far too early to drawn any conclusions or write overly long posts about. That said, that's never stopped reddit before.
So with that mindset in mind, let's take a look at some potential concerns and assess the threat level for each.
Cade Cunningham is not the guy
The Detroit Pistons drafted Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham at # 1 (over Jalen Green and Evan Mobley) partly because he projected as a safe, low-floor future star. How could this kid fail? He had the passing and shooting skills of a point guard in the body of a thicker wing. Better yet, he had A+ intangibles and leadership capabilities. Surely, he'd be the team's next Grant Hill.
Unfortunately, Cunningham hasn't reached that level yet. The raw numbers are there -- 21.7 points, 7.3 assists -- but the scoring efficiency continues to lag in Year 3. At the moment, Cunningham's shooting 32.2% from 3. It's not much different than his career averages (31.1% from 3 in 91 games). It's especially odd because Cunningham is such a great free-throw shooter (85% in both college and the pros) that you'd think these numbers would bump back up eventually.
But what's more concerning is that Cunningham hasn't been able to convert efficiently inside the arc either -- hitting just 44.1% of his twos. The one knock on him during the draft process was that he had mediocre athleticism by NBA standards -- and that's born out with some struggles to separate. He's no blazer like Tyreek Hill -- he'll need to get physical and win 50/50 balls like DeAndre Hopkins. Getting to the line even more often will help, especially because he's so good at converting there. No one's quite Luka Doncic, but Cunningham may have to emulate his wily game as best as he can.
If he can't, can Cunningham be the "star" of a winning franchise? It's in question now, and our reading suggests that the panic meter is set to 3.5 (out of 10).
The fear that Cunningham will never be an All-Star is legitimate. The fear that he'll never be a # 1 is legitimate. However, the silver lining is that he's still a malleable player for your roster given his size. Perhaps his true fate will be being a good and versatile second banana. That's no insult; even Paul George recently said he's been better in that role himself. Of course, if that's true, the Pistons will need to hit a home run in the draft sooner than later.
Chicago's window has closed
The Chicago Bulls have a veteran team -- led by DeMar DeRozan (age 34), Zach LaVine (28), and Nikola Vucevic (33). It feels like a lifetime ago, but this is the same core that was actually the # 1 seed in the East for a brief stretch in 2021-22 and made the playoffs. Since then, they've gone 40-42 last season and sit at 5-10 so far this year.
Has the "window" closed? Was it even a "window" in the first place? If so, it may have been one of those fake windows painted on the side of a rock to trick Wile E. Coyote. GM Arturas Karsinovas and Billy Donovan ran straight into it anyway.
Our alarms are blaring here, with a panic meter: 8.5 (out of 10). Simply put, there's no realistic argument to keep this core together anymore. There's no help on the horizon. Lonzo Ball isn't coming back, and Patrick Williams isn't breaking out. Their effort and defense (# 5 last year) has also waned (to # 19 this year). This is a team that desperately needs to blow it up and add an infusion of energy and young talent via the draft. The only silver lining here is that they actually own their pick this time around (after giving up last year's to Orlando).
Klay Thompson is cooked
Golden State star Klay Thompson is only 33 years old, but in pro athlete terms, he's even more worn and torn than that after significant knee and Achilles injuries. After a strong 2022-23, Thompson has started to show that decline -- hitting just 34.3% from deep and playing stiffly on defense. His box plus/minus (measuring impact per 100 possessions) is a depressing -3.1, by far the lowest of his career.
The shooting numbers are less of an issue -- those can ebb and flow over weeks and months. I wouldn't be surprised if Thompson gets hot and shoots 40% from three next month. However, the defensive issues are a significant concern, particularly when the playoffs roll around. If Thompson and Andrew Wiggins aren't playing well, it's hard to see the Warriors making a deep run. For that reason, we'll give this a panic meter: 5.5 (out of 10). This is an expensive, "win now" roster that may not be capable of beating the top teams anymore.
There's also some concern about the future. Klay Thompson is an expiring contract and a free agent this summer. If he expects to get paid like an All-Star, that's a major problem. If he understands his current value (like a rich man's Eric Gordon) then maybe the Warriors can retain him on a reasonable deal.
Scoot Henderson is a bust
Many people expected Scoot Henderson to be a smart pick for "Rookie of the Year." Fellow rookies Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren are built like bean poles, while Henderson came equipped with the body of a prime Russell Westbrook. Better still, he'd have a starring role with Portland after the team traded away Damian Lillard. All signs pointed to a potential 20 PPG+ season.
Unfortunately, Henderson hasn't hit the ground running -- he's stumbled out of the starting block. In his 5 games (key word: only 5 games), he shot a woeful 34.6% from the field, including 9.5% from beyond the arc (2 for 21 total). More concerning still, he's averaged nearly as many turnovers (4.0) and fouls (4.0) as he did assists (4.6).
Obviously, judging a 19 year old based on 5 games would be ridiculous, so we're labeling this panic meter: 2 (out of 10).
One longer-term trend that I would be more concerned about is the effectiveness of the "G-League" path to the NBA. In theory, it makes all the sense in the world that prospects who go through the G-League -- with pro coaching and pro trainers and pro competition -- would be further along than their peers. That hasn't been the case so far. The G-Leaguers haven't looked ahead of the curve yet, with Henderson as a recent (small sample size) example. After two years in their program, he should have been further along than this. The same is true for almost all of the G-League Ignite alumni, which should have the NBA thinking long and hard about how to maximize that pathway.
Gregg Popovich is over the hill
Scoot Henderson's fellow rookie Victor Wembanyama has played well based on any reasonable expectations and remains the favorite for "Rookie of the Year" (although Chet Holmgren would deserve it right now). Wembanyama will have some growing pains here and there, but there's little doubt that he's still an Uber-prospect and future superstar.
But is it fair to question the support staff around Wenbanyama? Is it sacrilegious to doubt future Hall of Famer Gregg Popovich? I don't think so. If Bill Belichick may get fired in New England, we can at least give Popovich some grief as well.
The most public gripe about Pop's coaching this year has been the experiment of "PG Jeremy Sochan". The idea that Sochan has the keys to the offense like Chris Paul may be overblown, but it's still strange to give so much responsibility to a kid who's a 6'9" wing and reluctant shooter. The spacing around Wembanyama has been poor, and caused him to be overpressured and turnover-prone (Victor is averaging 3.6 turnovers per game).
The concern about the Spurs' spacing is not a new phenomenon. The team seemingly perfected the "beautiful game" with a title in 2014, but ever since then, Popovich has fallen back on his old-school offensive habits. In fact, the Spurs have ranked in the bottom 10 for three-point attempts for the past 9 seasons (seriously). For that reason, I'm listing this higher than expected with a panic meter: 4 (out of 10).
Perhaps Popovich is just being overly patient with this roster -- knowing Wembanyama is 2-3 years away from his final form. Perhaps drafting a stud playmaker will make all these problems go away. Still, it's fair to wonder about the long-term future of the franchise and whether they should be grooming a more modern replacement, beit Becky Hammon (who won a WNBA title with a three-point happy team) or someone else.