Zach Wilson the only AFCE quarterback with single digit interceptions
this post was submitted on 25 Nov 2023
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Tua has 22 TDs, 14 Turnovers
Allen has 29 TDs, 15 Turnovers
Both are turning it over too much for 11 games played. The main difference has been that the Dolphins run game is really good. Dolphins RBs have A LOT more TDs than Bills RBs.
Allen has one of the lowest turnover worthy throws in the league, about 5 of his interceptions haven't been remotely his fault
Down voted for PFF, I am guilty myself of scoffing at it when they said Allen has the most “turnover worthy throws” and now using it as an argument when he has a low amount of
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Allen also has 7 rushing TDs and Tua has none.
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Using total fumbles is extremely disingenuous. Fumbles lost should be in your title.
Fumbles lost are literally right below the title. You had to click on the title to get into the thread, actively ignore that the context you're asking for is there and then make this comment.
Correct. I point that out. Fumbles lost should be in the title not in the comment section. The title is using inconsistent metrics to make a disingenuous point
It's disingenuous to ask to read one more line of text?
The title is pushing an inconsistent narrative. They could have made the same point using fumbles lost. Or they could have made a point of turnover worthy plays which actually helps Allens case even more.
Fumble recoveries are largely luck
Not on dropped snaps missed handoffs. Offensive predominantly recover those.
Also there is luck with interceptions as well but this isn't including dropped interceptions. It's using inconsistent metrics.
Better metric is PFF’s turnover worthy play % (lower is better)
Tua: 3.3% (19th best in NFL)
Allen: 2.4% (6th best in NFL)
If anyone is interested, here’s the top 5 and bottom 5 among QBs that have had over 285 passing attempts (basically at least half of games started).
Five best:
Dak Prescott (1.6%)
Matt Stafford (1.9%)
Joe Burrow (2.1%)
Kenny Pickett (2.1%)
Kirk Cousins (2.3%)
Five worst:
Geno Smith (3.9%)
Josh Dobbs (4.0%)
Brock Purdy (4.1%)
Mac Jones (5.1%)
Desmond Ridder (5.6%)
Purdy can’t keep getting lucky right?
purdy elite
I’m guessing there’s a correlation between big time throws and turnover worthy plays
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How do the dorks at PFF determine if it's turnover worthy maybe they're just tight window throws
Most of them are pretty obvious, it’s just QBs throwing the ball to a DB that gets dropped lmao. Even if it’s subjective and not perfect, it’s way more accurate than blaming a QB for an INT that bounced off of an open WR’s hands
The latter is the classic Lamar Jackson interception
I think on a case by case basis it could be muddy. For example they didn't call any of Tua's throws in that game in Germany TWP, even though I'm sure some were.
Over a season though it's fairly accurate, and a better - but still flawed - way of estimating how well QBs take care of the ball.
Should also note the most important thing is the ratio of big time throws to turnover worthy plays. Tua just about leads to league in big time throw rate at 6.4%. A 2:1 BTT/TWP ratio is elite.
Super unlucky is just the Buffalo football way
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Five best:
Dak Prescott (1.6%)
I know most of you know that last year was weird, but it feels so good when its typed out
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Allen: 2.4% (6th best in the NFL)
I’m actually a big believer in PFF and put more weight in system/ranking than the average redditor…
But that is sus af.
Allen out there throwing hopes and prayers on a regular basis. Hell, he should have had 2 more INTs against Denver alone. He’s a turnover-prone gun slinger and always has been.
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Listen buddy I was promised Dak Pickscott
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Allen is a TD machine, none of these stats are surprising
Most total TD's in first 6 seasons of a career in NFL history. Dictionary definition TD machine.
Someone’s gonna come in and mention mahomes redshirting his first year, and how the record would be his otherwise, so I’ll save them the energy. First or second in that stat is big time no matter what. And Allen is number one anyway. Haters gonna hate
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Tua thought he was taking tumbling lessons, turns out they were fumbling lessons
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Well we have a pretty large body of evidence now that Tua is either 1) on time with the offense and accurate within 25 yards, or 2) a disaster waiting to happen. While absolutely never in between.
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This is totally gonna sound like an excuse but the center transition has been rough to say the least
Stupid a fumble under center counts against him but nowhere else to score it, shows how much context matters.
Also fumbles in a qb running back exchange count against the qb. Tua's fumble yesterday when he put the ball straight into the 5th string running back's hands and he didn't secure it counted against Tua.
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glass cannons baby
Now do how many fumbles were bad snaps
10 fumbles is wild
it's mostly bad snaps
Flirting vs sexual harassment
It just shows you the power of narrative. I’ve heard Tua mentioned as a potential MVP while no one is saying that about Josh Allen and some are even calling him washed.
And not derail the thread, but a similar thing happens with Brock Purdy. He’s currently out performing some pretty good QBs (and handily) yet somehow some people are convinced he’s worse than all of them.
It’s weird.
It seems like it takes a couple years before people will admit a low drafted QB is actually good. I bet by next year that narrative will be completely shifted and people will finally recognize Purdy as one of the best
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It's because people haven't seen his interceptions. Most have been when a drive is gonna die anyway and he's throwing an arm punt
Also he has 5 interceptions that aren't his fault at all
Despite having one of the lowest turnover worthy throw rates people say he is turnover prone
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Dolphins are in first place, the Bills are currently missing the playoffs. Players on successful teams always get more accolades.
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Two good qbs
Tua has been throwing some terrible picks lately, and there's no excuse for a couple of them. He needs to clean that up. But at least half of those fumbles are atrocious snaps from our center(s).
I’m gonna be that guy and say that at least 2 of Tua’s fumbles were on handoffs where the RB may have fucked up
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