Does this mean rent will get easier to pay, or am I still boned?
this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2023
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Well, according to the article:
Of course, economists are only expecting price increases to slow, not to reverse, which is what it would take for prices for groceries, haircuts and other things to return to where they were before inflation took off during 2021.
Well, fuck.
And of course wages aren’t going to take a leap forward either.
Wages are growing on average, and faster than inflation (5.2% wage growth vs 3.2% inflation year over year for the past year). Takes two seconds to Google.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/
Somewhat remarkably considering the problems with income inequality in the US, wages are growing the fastest of all among people with lower incomes (though all the wage increases in the world aren't gonna tackle the problem of the power of the 0.1% investor class of wealth hoarders).
https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2022/
https://www.marketplace.org/2023/03/08/lower-income-earners-wages-have-grown-faster-than-others/
It's pretty expected to given the persistent low unemployment and a high labor demand.
Not saying there's no concerns at all in the entire economy or anything crazy. But you don't have to spread disinformation like wages aren't growing.
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Still boned and if you're not delighted it means you want Trump to win.
Can you explain how/why you think either Biden or Trump is related to the cost of rent? Just trying to understand your comment
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It should be clearly stated that recession is a technical term with a specific meaning, not a general term for a rough economy. Not all tough economic times are recessions. It is not at all a contradiction for lots of people to be struggling and for a recession to not be happening. This is not economists saying that everything is hunky dory and that people have no reason to complain, only that the specific phenomenon that is a recession is not occurring right now.
Edit: Just to put it explicitly, a recession is generally defined as two or more successive quarters in which GDP contracts rather than growing.
Every economists was predicting recession a few months back. They have an accuracy rate less than horoscopes
Tbf, the act of predicting a recession can change the outcome, since the economy is just people reacting to things with money.
If everyone is expecting their houses to fall down from thin walls, so they start adding panels to their walls, suddenly the newly sturdy walls arent falling down anymore.
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This isn't even remotely true, why is it being upvoted?
Maybe because it is true and no one wants to hear government economists bullshit about how everything is fine when everything is not fucking fine.
So sick of economist lying crap. Telling us we can't have universal healthcare and we can't get rid of student loan debt but we have to give free money to banks and trade with countries that have slavery.
But it's simply untrue.
Here is goldman sachs saying, over a year ago, that a path to a soft landing is hard but feasible. Here is an economist, from over a year ago, predicting that the chance of a soft landing was going up. Here are 3 economists writing for the Harvard business reviewing saying, back in Februrary, that the chances of a soft landing were good and calls for a recession were premature.
The whole point of the fed's policy on the rates was to tamp down on inflation while at the same time avoiding a recession. They are, of course, economists. At this point we look like we have good odds to pull of what they were intending to pull off.
I don't know where you get your information from, but if you thought no one thought was predicting a soft landing until a few months ago, well it's safe to say you don't really pay much attention to these things because plenty of economists have been predicting it likely, or going to happen, even for a long time. I've only heard a handful of economists even come close to virtually assuring a recession.
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Any witches I can follow on Mastodon who provide stock analysis???
No idea. Just buy and hold index funds and you will be fine.
I am unemployed and have been for many months. I have never had issues finding a job, but finding one lately has been impossible. I know of 3 others in the same boat as I. I think that a recession is inevitable at this point. Lucky for me, I have other sources of income. I did have to drastically cut back spending, however.
There is definitely something going on lately. I'm always looking for better jobs on indeed, professional recruiting services etc, trying to improve my situation.
In the last 4 months its been seemingly impossible to even get a response, and I know I'm more than qualified for these positions I'm applying to, and I've never had an issue before, even during severe economic downturns.
Same.
This is a nightmare scenario for me. What are the other sources of income, if you don't mind me asking?
Website advertising and subscription revenue for websites I have owned for years. Spouse income as well.
Here's my gripe with economists. Even if this wasn't true, wouldn't be in the best interest of the economy to lie about it so the market doesn't get spooked and end up doing things that would make inflation worse?
What other 'science' has that nifty feature in it?
Regular medical science, it is called the placebo effect. It only works a bit. Not like you are going to regrow a limb, more like if you had a 40% of getting better on your own you now have a 50%.
Truth is economists can't predict shit and recessions happen based on numbers not based on feelings. We can't click our heels together and wish our way to a better world.
My initial thoughts exactly.
A lot of the "scientists" that get laughed out of their field but get their Netflix "documentary" deal seem to use this neat trick.
They're particularly good at starting with a conclusion then shoehorning in a bad analysis with uncompelling evidence.
Economists predict that now that the rich and ruling class have had a chance to get even rocher even faster, the rest of us will be allowed to catch our breaths just long enough to avoid sweeping reforms and revolutions the next time they pull this bullshit!
They found the sweet spot between oops we broke it again and these poor people seem to be actually accumulating savings
Nah we've just become too dependent
Just in time for a tumultuous election
The poor and middle class are sowing, the rich are reaping
"After a historic run-up in inflation, Americans are now starting to see something they haven’t in three years: deflation,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“To be sure, deflation—that is, falling prices—is largely confined to appliances, furniture, used cars and other goods. Economywide deflation, when prices of most goods and services continuously fall, isn’t in the cards.”
“But economists say goods prices likely have further to fall, which will ease inflation’s return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, perhaps as early as the second half of next year.”
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