this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2026
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[–] elucubra@sopuli.xyz 7 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 1 hour ago) (1 children)

Things are probably going to get worse in the short term, but the AI bubble is going to burst. Magnitude? We'll see, but when investors realize that these companies cannot make a profit, and open source frontier models that allow you to run AI in house are removing vendor lock in, things are going to change. Also, LLMs are a dead end, and have little room to improve.

Newer paradigms are appearing, such as Yann LeCun's JASP, which actually learns, and other approaches, which will make LLMs obsolete, and are way less hardware intensive.

Another factor is the Chinese closing in in consumer grade RAM. If it can be proven that no backdoor or other shenanigans are there, they will balance things somewhat.

While current reality is what it is, there may be a massive social and traditional media manipulation by the big three and other interested parties to fuel fear of rising prices forever, to push people to buy as much as they can at these prices. I have no proof of this, but I don't think it's far fetched.

And let's not forget that for media outlets, fear and tragedy sells. (I think Hearst or some other news mogul said that last century.)

[–] Prathas@lemmy.zip 5 points 1 hour ago

Yann LeCun's JASP

Wait, this is my first time reading about this. Got an ELI5 or TL;DR?

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 22 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

I've come to terms with the fact I'm not going to be buying any new computer-type devices until the bubble pops.

I'm just terrified what happens if one of my existing devices breaks. If a RAM stick goes bad, I might have to mortgage my non-existent house.

[–] Chaf@slrpnk.net 1 points 5 minutes ago

In case you are being serious, there are ways around faulty RAM sticks, usually just a few cells/rows are affected. In case anyone needs to know this, here is a pretty good summary on stackoverflow on how to deal with this on linux. In general, look for "memmap".

Keep your hardware running as long as possible! Iirc newer RAM is unfortunately somewhat more susceptible to failing. My DDR3 is still working fine.

[–] HackThePlanet@lemmy.ml 6 points 3 hours ago
[–] tixooo@lemmy.zip 14 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

Time to hit the books, explore the mountains, build a chicken shed, grow something in the garden, buy a plot of land and grow something... Build a house myself idk things like that.

[–] louloukoutsis@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

Yep, definitely not buying any new computers any time soon. If anything breaks I’ll try to live with it as much as I can.

Fuck this pricing.

[–] tixooo@lemmy.zip 1 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

I got a framework some time ago, best decision ever. I can upgrade anything and everything on my laptop when I want, how I want, where I want.

[–] FullPenguin@lemmy.world 1 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

That doesn't make those components magically cheaper...

I can upgrade anything in my desktop too, but the 4x32gb ddr5 sticks I paid $200 for in 2024 now cost around $1,600.

[–] tixooo@lemmy.zip 1 points 1 hour ago

Ow yeah 100%, just A case for reusability, repairability, and longevity. This might help users to extend the life of their computers, thus long term lower costs for the user itself when extending the life of the machine.

[–] Arancello@aussie.zone 44 points 7 hours ago (2 children)

it will be ironic when consumers cant afford the end user devices needed to interact with the AI servers. House of cards??

[–] GalacticSushi@lemmy.blahaj.zone 69 points 6 hours ago (4 children)

Let me put on my tinfoil hat really quick.

They want to kill personal computing. You don't need a full blown computer, you need a fire stick style device that plugs into your monitor and allows you to remotely access the virtual machine you rent from Microsoft on a monthly basis.

[–] Rothe@piefed.social 7 points 2 hours ago

There is no tinfoil about it. Jensen Huang and the other tech oligarchs have openly stated that is their goal.

[–] vext01@feddit.uk 1 points 1 hour ago

Man, this makes me want to take stock of what I have in the attic. Those old computers dont sound so bad any more.

I also wonder if I should be hoarding raspberry pi and building some kind of cluster

[–] chrash0@lemmy.world 35 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

this has been “the plan” since 2005. when i was in high school trying to figure out what the heck “cloud computing” was, this is what they were talking about: anything requiring more compute than secure authentication and pixel drawing would be rendered in the cloud and delivered to dumb terminals. this is what netbooks, Chromebooks, and smartphones have been a step towards if not an implementation of.

[–] stoy@lemmy.zip 10 points 4 hours ago (3 children)

Looking back at computing history, cloud computing is basically reverting back to the original mainframes and dedicated terminals.

There was a hype of using thin clients, the concept is that you get just enough hardware and software to be able to connect to a session running on a shared server, the admin can allocate more resources like CPU cores, RAM and storage as individual needs change over time.

As an IT guy, I do like the concept in a corporate environment, especially when looking at the SunRay system from Sun, which used smartcards for easier access, you put your card into the client and if configured properly, you got your old session loaded and ready in a few sec, regardless of which client you put your card into.

The YT channel Clabretro has several interesting SunRay videos.

[–] vext01@feddit.uk 2 points 1 hour ago

Sun ray was cool.

We had them at university with smart cards.

[–] MalReynolds@slrpnk.net 4 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 1 hour ago) (1 children)

Yup, there's a cycle between centralization and edge. Started with centralization, mainframes, went edge with the first PCs (and game consoles) and ever since corpos have been trying to pull it back to the center in waves. Thin client, cloud compute, arguably phones (as apps processing in the cloud), Geforce Now, AI. So far it's always gone back to the edge for most of the population, except for niche cases (or not in the case of phones). As internet gets faster and more reliable the chance of it sticking longer in the central zone increases (IMO).

[–] Axolotl_cpp@feddit.it 2 points 44 minutes ago* (last edited 44 minutes ago) (1 children)

As internet gets faster and more reliable the chance of it sticking longer in the central zone increases

It also allow the opposite, the fediverse is a living example of it, the more internet is faster the more we can organize better to decentralize, it's harder that someone get in contact with the decentralized internet but it's more probable that it happen now than 7 years ago

Some companies also would still continue to sell consumer hardware (like Framework, probably)

I see it as a fight, companies are currently winning sadly but we have the power to win too

[–] MalReynolds@slrpnk.net 1 points 32 minutes ago

Heartily agree. I was trying for objectivity, personally you'll take my general purpose computers from my cold dead hands, and I will encourage everyone I can to support it.

I take some solace from the general pendulum nature of the process (and societal evolution in general), this too shall pass. Doesn't mean we don't need to fight. Evil triumphs when good people do nothing.

[–] Lemminary@lemmy.world 1 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

As an end user with this model at work, I hate this slow-ass shit that keeps freezing on me and randomly disconnects. Not fun or productive when it starts talking seconds to register a click because the connection becomes unstable for no apparent reason.

[–] stoy@lemmy.zip 1 points 1 hour ago

Wait, are you still running a SunRay at work?

Wow, I thought they were all scrapped

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 4 points 4 hours ago (1 children)
[–] Mihies@programming.dev 4 points 3 hours ago

Yes, but they can get away with a tiny amount of it. Perhaps we are back at the start of personal computing and arcade machines era, where every byte counted.

[–] grue@lemmy.world 20 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

Dumb terminals don't need much RAM. Unfortunately, the minimal RAM would come with maximum rentiership and exploitation.

[–] Arancello@aussie.zone 1 points 6 hours ago

i am having visions of 3270 screens😉

[–] kinkles@sh.itjust.works 28 points 7 hours ago (3 children)

I see this as an opportunity to get invested in non-tech hobbies because there’s nothing else I can do

[–] MalReynolds@slrpnk.net 6 points 3 hours ago

Yup, was going DDR5 this year, got a new bike (Marin Larkspur) instead, such a good decision, renewed my love of cycling, having a ball.

[–] tixooo@lemmy.zip 7 points 5 hours ago

Books my man, books.

[–] Shellofbiomatter@lemmus.org 3 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

Mini painting, get addicted to plastic crack. Seems to be cheaper than tech hobbies these days.

[–] cobalt32@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 points 1 hour ago (1 children)

Get a resin printer and you can print infinite minis.

[–] Shellofbiomatter@lemmus.org 2 points 38 minutes ago

That would probably be too close to a tech hobby and considering what some of the tech giants are doing. 3D printing will be labeled under criminal activity

[–] thejml@sh.itjust.works 75 points 9 hours ago

The RAM I bought in 2019 for $100 is now over $500. at this rate I'll sell it in a few years to put my daughter through college.

[–] DudeImMacGyver@kbin.earth 14 points 7 hours ago

These price gouging assholes should probably be prosecuted along with the "AI" fraudsters.

[–] moonlight@fedia.io 32 points 8 hours ago (1 children)

At this rate I'll be able to sell my ddr3 from over a decade ago and make a profit compared to what I paid originally

[–] cmnybo@discuss.tchncs.de 13 points 8 hours ago (1 children)

It's a good thing I saved the 24GB of DDR3-1600 from my old laptop. I might actually be able to get some money for it.

[–] unitedwithme@lemmy.today 8 points 7 hours ago

I have 256GB DDR3 ECC, I'm ready for RAM to turn into 2017 bitcoin at this point!

[–] felsiq@piefed.zip 7 points 7 hours ago (1 children)

No reference to CXMT’s memory that’s just starting to be sold in western markets now, I’m very curious if/how that’ll affect things. If corsair’s cxmt kit can hold pricing steady, let alone drop it, for a 2x16 6000MHz CL36 kit then it could be huge

Yeah there's a lot of doom here, but I keep saying that there are reasons that they are locking in 5 year price guarantees, it's because they know it's going to crash back down, whether it be bubble or normalization or Chinese. It'll take some time, but it's not forever.

[–] TachyonTele_Esq@piefed.social 9 points 8 hours ago

I'm really glad I got my steam deck last year when I had the chance.

[–] hemmes@lemmy.world -1 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

You may hate AI, but it’s not the reason we are seeing RAM costs skyrocket.

Looking at the manufacturing data and the historical strong-arm tactics used by Samsung, Micron, and SK hynix, who collectively control about 96% of the global DRAM market, AI just gives manufacturers the perfect public justification to stop chasing cheap bit growth, starve low-margin consumer channels (our RAM products), reprioritize wafers toward premium products (data center RAM), and force customers into multi-year contracts at shortage-era prices.

Sure it lets them make more money off us, but they really love locking in these rates with their data center-based customers.

[–] Mihies@programming.dev 7 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

And all this is just because .... AI demand.

[–] SunshineJogger@feddit.org 5 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 minutes ago) (1 children)

Rather they grabbed a fancy reason to increase prices because of greed.

The few big ram production companies likely had a chat and decided: "Hey, more money? Yea! More money! We like more money!"

[–] Mihies@programming.dev 2 points 46 minutes ago

But of course they do, their shareholders wouldn't like it otherwise. Capitalism 101. 🤷

[–] PriorityMotif@lemmy.world 6 points 9 hours ago (2 children)

8Gb of ddr4 is $25 usd and 16Gb ddr4 sticks are going for about $75 usd goes up from there depending on speed.

[–] corsicanguppy@lemmy.ca 6 points 7 hours ago

8Gb of ddr4 is $25

Ha! My 32g was $600, so 6x that.

[–] unitedwithme@lemmy.today 5 points 7 hours ago

I just bought a 32GB SODIMM DDR5 5600MHz for $430 😅 at least it was for a work PC