Yesterday I saw a post showing the average winning percentage of opponents defeated, and Carolina was on top of the list because they beat a 6-4 team for their ONE win. Obviously, and hopefully, the post was made tongue-in-cheek, but it did have me wanting to look at the data differently, so I decided to build on that and show total wins for opponents each team has defeated. I don’t know that this adds much different than regular schedule strength stats, or avg DVOA of opponent, but I just wanted to try a different view. For lack of a better team, let's call it WDs (Wins Defeated).

I’ll use Dallas and Baltimore as an example to illustrate the metric. Both teams are 8-3, but the quality of their wins are strikingly different.

In Dallas’ eight wins this year, their opponents have a .297 winning percentage, the equivalent of a 5-12 team over a full season. Here are the YTD records of the opponents they beat:

• 3-8
• 4-6
• 2-8
• 4-6
• 4-6
• 3-8
• 1-9
• 4-8

In Baltimore’s eight wins this year, their opponents have a .508 winning percentage, almost the equivalent of a 9-8 team over a full season. Here are the YTD records of the opponents they beat:

• 6-4
• 5-5
• 7-3
• 3-7
• 8-3
• 2-9
• 6-5
• 5-5

One small issue which I didn’t adjust for is that some teams haven’t had their bye yet, so not every team has played the same number of games. I could aggregate winning percentage, which would be more accurate, but would be a weird stat to digest. I kept it basic and just added wins. The point is simply to combine win volume with strength of wins.

In the chart below, the data is color coded by number of wins for each team, in case you want to compare against teams with the same record.

https://preview.redd.it/ne7qnkhzgc2c1.png?width=585&format=png&auto=webp&s=de200ee73faa2d57edbc4e6426836b15956046db

What stands out?

How about 7-3 Miami with only 22 WDs, while the other 7-3 teams have between 34 and 37 WDs.

At 4-6 the Jets have the 17 moat WDs by virtue of two of their wins coming against the Eagles and Bills. They lead all 4-win teams and are ahead of three 5-win teams.

Like I said, I don't know that it's any better than other schedule strength stats, just trying something different, although it's probably been done by others as well. Hope you enjoy!

I don't know if you all have noticed, but this 2023 Giants team sucks. As an analyst, the eye test isn't enough for me. I need data, so I got it. And the data confirms that they suck...maybe even worse than the eye test. The Giants -14.8 point differential per game is second worst only to the 1-12-1 1966 Giants who had a per game point differential of -17.0. That 1966 team put up 41 points on offense against Washington in a game and still lost. They lost because they gave up 72.

Below you can see each year's point differential per game for the Giants with a few annotations. This image really puts into perspective just how bad 2023 has been so far.

https://preview.redd.it/kxth5tfwpp0c1.png?width=1708&format=png&auto=webp&s=1cfc9fd7d4b173c7a1fa9c0e4e46b5f064bbb59e

With the breaking news that Deshaun Watson will have season-ending surgery, it's a good time to examine the Browns return on their $230M investment, along with them giving up three first-round picks, one third-round pick, and two fourth-round picks. 34 games into the 85 total games of the contract have delivered the following results:

• 11 full games at QB
• 7 total wins (when playing the entire game)
• 3 total games with above average play (measured by ANY/A)

https://preview.redd.it/c0uf42kvzi0c1.png?width=1540&format=png&auto=webp&s=85d6dc676b617fe878e5cd1f93f84e55b0387003

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On December 19th, 1993, the Bill Parcels coached Patriots beat the Bill Belichick coached Browns 20-17, when Pats RB Leonard Russell plunged in from 4 yards out in the 4th quarter to ice the game and move the Patriots to 3-11 on the season, and 3-14 over their last 17 games. This is the last time the Patriots had a worse record over 17 games than they do right now at 4-13.

10,919 days ago, the average Reddit user wasn’t born. We were only two years into the internet being used in homes, and the first Smart Phone, the Simon Personal Communicator (SPC) was a year away from hitting the market. That is the last time the Patriots were worse than they are today.

The astonishing low of 4-13 over 17 games reached by New England after putting up only 6 points against the Colts in Germany and facing their third consecutive loss, is reaching new territory for that they haven’t seen in 30 years. The chart below shows the entire history of the Patriots on a rolling 17-game basis. The unprecedented success from 2001-2019 with wins hovering between 12-14 regularly is an incredible run, that we are not likely to see again in our lifetimes. Included in this are seven different times where they had a rolling 17-0 record. The steep increase and steep decrease pre- and post-Brady isn’t anything football fans aren’t already aware of anecdotally, but it’s striking to see how this looks visually.

https://preview.redd.it/yr33yavr940c1.png?width=1486&format=png&auto=webp&s=d84f05d2a2d1910ea70c7d60677388697371d691

TLDR

Some teams are going to have an easier schedule in the second half of the season and some teams are going to have a harder schedule in the second half of the season. I'm using DVOA to quantify just how much easier/harder things are going to get for each team. The Raiders will have the biggest swing in terms of more difficulty, and the Colts will have the biggest swing in terms of getting easier.

Longer Version

The 4-5 Raiders started off this season facing quite a few crap teams like the Giants, the Bears and the Patriots. They didn't have the easiest schedule per opponent DVOA, but they did have the 7th easiest with an average opponent of -5.5% DVOA. But after the Jets this week they face the Dolphins, the Chiefs, and a few weeks later, the Chiefs again. Their average opponent for the 2nd half of the season has a DVOA of 7.8%, giving them the third most difficult schedule per DVOA in the 2nd half.

Rather than a focus directly on their 2H schedule difficulty, I was more interested in the gap between the first half and second half of the season. Because we know their record, and we can get their avg opp DVOA thus far, I thought it's more useful to see how much better or worse things are going to get as compared to what they've already been up against. For the Raiders that means, that their opponents in the second have will average 13.4% points more in DVOA than their first half opponents. In terms of the shift between 1H and 2H, they have the largest increase in opponent DVOA.

Conversely, things should get a lot easier for the 4-5 Colts. They've faced a gauntlet of tough teams like the Ravens, the Jaguars (twice), and the Browns, giving them the 5th toughest schedule (8.0% DVOA) in the first half of the season. But with the Patriots, Falcons and Raiders on their schedule, they have the theoretical 3rd easiest schedule remaining (-5.2%). Comparing the first half to the second half shows a difference of -13.2% DVOA per opp, giving the Colts the biggest drop in opponent quality from the first half to the second half.

To be clear, this doesn't mean the Raiders have the toughest schedule in the 2nd half, that is the Bengals at 15.3% opp DVOA. And it doesn't mean the Colts have the easiest schedule in the second half, that's the Saints (avg opp -13.6% DVOA). It means the Raiders and Colts have the biggest shifts in terms of opponent quality when comparing 1H to 2H.

Where did I pull all the data?

FTN Fantasy has some really good DVOA data (offense, defense, ST, opponents, etc). More on DVOA here, from Aaron Schatz the creator of the metric.

How to interpret the charts:

On the scatterplot, the horizontal X-axis represents each team's average opponent DVOA in the first half of the season. Further left and below zero, means their opponents were easier, further right and above zero, means their opponents were harder. (WAS easiest, PIT hardest). The vertical Y-axis represents the DVOA of each team's average opponent in the 2nd half of the season. Higher on the chart and above xero, means more harder teams, lower on the chart and below zero means easier teams...in the seconf half. As mentioned earlier, CIN has the toughest, and NO has the easiest.

• Teams in the top-left had an easy first half, but things are about to get difficult.
• Teams in the bottom-right had a tough first half, and now it will ease up.
• Those unlucky teams in the top-right, have a difficult first half AND a difficult 2nd half.
• And the lucky teams in the bottom-left have it easy all season.

The bar chart to the right, subtracts the teams' 2nd half of the season opp DVOA from the first half of the season opp DVOA. Positive means their schedule is going to be more difficult relative to the first half, and negative means it will be easier relative to the first half.

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https://preview.redd.it/gvt00b0y2rzb1.png?width=1272&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5c29be763af607b69565de295b8b96939b38472

We are now 24 games into the 85 total regular season games spanning the 5-year life of Deshaun Watson's record-breaking $230M guaranteed contract. In addition to $230M guaranteed, the Browns depleted their future draft capital by giving up three 1st-round picks, one 3rd-round pick, and two 4th-round picks.

Watson hasn't played much due to the suspension that was expected, but also due to recent injuries. When he has played, his performance has been sub-par. The timeline below, summarizes his contribution at a high-level.

28% of the $230M contract has led to the following...

• Watson has played in only nine full games out of the first 24 games of his contract. 9 of 13 post-suspension.
• 28% of the $230M has led to the team winning only five games with Watson on the field.
• In Watsons 10 total games, he delivered an above league average ANY/A only two times. Thats right...aside from the fact that he hasn't played much, 80% of the time he has played, his performance was below average.

https://preview.redd.it/xicid5fa5jxb1.png?width=1271&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d63abfa8684550e016cab04772ca7c52601dcdd

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