this post was submitted on 04 Jun 2026
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[–] protist@retrofed.com 18 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago) (3 children)

A lot of shitting on the possibility here. People have a right to be skeptical, but it's also hard to overstate how many moderate Republicans Ken Paxton has already alienated in Texas. Paxton has impeached by the Republican-led Texas House for his criminal activity. There are large swathes of suburban voters who may typically vote Republican but who would skip right over Paxton on that ballot.

At the same time, Talarico's ability to speak confidently and comfortably about religion and in churches is giving him a huge leg-up in making inroads with those same disaffected suburbanites.

The calculus is not the same as it was with Cruz vs O'Rourke in 2018. Talarico's prospects today are solidly better than O'Rourke's were at any point during his campaign.

[–] MiddleAgesModem@lemmy.world 2 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

A lot of shitting on the possibility here.

For good reason, this claim is made constantly.

[–] protist@retrofed.com 4 points 4 hours ago

I wrote more beyond those first 8 words

[–] ClownStatue@piefed.social 5 points 15 hours ago (2 children)

I always felt like O’Rourke was mostly propped up by the party. I never really thought he had a serious shot at winning a statewide election.

Talarico is a genuine Christian. Try as they might, the Christian-ist Christians of Christian-By-God-Texas can’t make a dent in his actual real Christian love, and members of their flocks are noticing that. I see countless posts saying Jesus was a progressive, but precious few politicians that embody that. I hope he does well. That said, this is Texas. They may hate Paxton, but to they hate him enough to vote for gulp A DEMOCRAT!?

[–] FlexibleToast@lemmy.world 2 points 4 hours ago

It was over when he said hell yah he would take their ARs.

[–] BarneyPiccolo@lemmings.world 4 points 11 hours ago (2 children)

Beto was doing great, right up until he went on a big Texas radio show and announced intended to take away their guns. You could almost hear the air hissing out of the balloon.

He lost by a tiny margin. I strongly believe that dumb statement cost him the seat. If he had taken Cruz's seat, and Talarico took Cornyn's seat, we'd have two Dem senators from Texas.

But Beto couldn't keep his mouth shut about guns in Texas.

[–] ClownStatue@piefed.social 2 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

I didn’t hear about the radio show, but I recall him saying it during, I think, the Democratic Presidential Debate in 2016?

[–] BarneyPiccolo@lemmings.world 2 points 4 hours ago

There was one particular radio appearance that he was particular enthusiastic and confrontational, like he could get. That kind of attitude was taking him far, until he applied it to guns. In Texas.

Previous Dems had lost by double digits, but Beto got within a couple of percentage points. It seems onvious that gun statement made the difference.

[–] Blumpkinhead@lemmy.world 4 points 11 hours ago

In true democrat fashion, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

[–] Spooge@lemmy.world 2 points 15 hours ago

Don't underestimate how stupid Republican voters are either.

[–] tidderuuf@lemmy.world 110 points 23 hours ago (8 children)

"X to turn Texas State Blue" has to be the most reused political headline of all time.

[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 23 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago)

It translates to "Texas has a massive media markets and consultants get 20% on when they sell an ad-buy on behalf of a candidate, so lets throw money at Texas because it makes us more money" when you translate it to DNC consultant.

[–] AngryRedHerring@lemmy.world 14 points 22 hours ago (3 children)

It's not turning anything until we get rid of Abbott, Patrick, and Paxton. Best Talarico can do is one of those three. This state is so fucked up. Our elections are fucked.

[–] Triasha@lemmy.world 3 points 15 hours ago

State wide elections go first, and you get a situation like Georgia where the at large elections can go either way but the state legislature and congressional delegation are still gerrymandered to hell for Republicans.

Then you get a tipping point like Virginia when the state legislature goes blue and then it's a blue state, and you can finally work to get some problems resolved.

[–] JoMiran@lemmy.ml 12 points 22 hours ago (2 children)

I moved from Austin to Jackson Hole, Wyoming after 23 years there. Wyoming is still red, but at least they leave me the fuck alone. Texas is always all up in your shit.

[–] AngryRedHerring@lemmy.world 10 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

Especially for a state that's supposed to be all about rugged individualism, they can't stay out of your pants

[–] Know_not_Scotty_does@lemmy.world 6 points 20 hours ago (2 children)

There is next to 0 public land in Texas too, people like to compare it to the western states and its just wrong. The state of small government (for corporations and civil protections)

[–] mkwt@lemmy.world 1 points 3 hours ago

Near 0 federal public land. Texas has a lot of state land, and the Land Commissioner is a powerful statewide elected office.

This situation is a result of the terms of the 1845 accession when the Republic of Texas entered the Union.

[–] AngryRedHerring@lemmy.world 6 points 20 hours ago (3 children)

And we're supposed to be fervent conservationists with respect for our parks and wildlife, but you can't eat a fish you catch here without getting poisoned by 20 kinds of chemicals

[–] 24_at_the_withers@lemmy.world 2 points 14 hours ago

you can't eat a fish you catch here without getting poisoned by 20 kinds of chemicals

Username checks out.

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[–] phdepressed@sh.itjust.works 10 points 22 hours ago (1 children)

Talarico is running against Paxton for which is going to replace Cornyn.

Gina Hinojosa is running against Abbott, the limited polling so far has her losing by 3-8%. Which is within striking distance depending on what else goes on. I would assume that if Hinojosa wins, Vikki Goodwin will beat Patrick.

I think it's neat. Talacrio is a genuine progressive -- him running is a breath of fresh air

Imagine people getting fired up to vote for someone they who they don't have to hold their nose for -- that's what hope feels like

[–] Astronut@lemmy.zip 14 points 23 hours ago (3 children)

The problem with fucking idiots is that they’re always fucking other fucking idiots and creating more fucken fucking idiots!

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[–] BonkTheAnnoyed@piefed.blahaj.zone 31 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago) (5 children)

All the people in here commenting, like "oh no, there's a hope! Step on it!"

Wouldn't want people to actually get fired up and vote, now would we?

[–] Spooge@lemmy.world 8 points 15 hours ago

This is Lemmy. It's terminally online doomers and pompous Linux dweebs.

[–] MiddleAgesModem@lemmy.world 0 points 9 hours ago

Repeated false hope doesn't fire up anybody. It demoralizes people.

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[–] CaptDust@sh.itjust.works 43 points 23 hours ago (7 children)

Doubt it, I'm not convinced Texas has three brain cells to share amongst themselves. They've had stronger candidates than Talarico in the past and still re-elected Cancun Cruz.

[–] Lucidlethargy@sh.itjust.works 1 points 9 hours ago

He's getting a lot of support, though. Bro was on the legendary late show.

The. Late. Show.

It was canceled by Trump, that's how fuckin dangerous it was.

[–] AngryRedHerring@lemmy.world 28 points 22 hours ago (6 children)
[–] vaultdweller013@sh.itjust.works 10 points 22 hours ago (1 children)

As a Californian who's only ever used paper ballots this confuses and disgusts me. I wish to do a march to the sea.

[–] AngryRedHerring@lemmy.world 7 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

I first started complaining about this back in 2000, when it was said that all you needed to shift an election was 5 minutes alone with one of these machines and a USB drive. Of course everybody was calling me paranoid. You don't even need a USB drive now.

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[–] BrianTheeBiscuiteer@lemmy.world 10 points 22 hours ago (4 children)

Beto had a decent chance until he said he was coming for the AR-15s. I mean at least let your opponents say that, don't feed them the sound byte.

[–] CaptDust@sh.itjust.works 6 points 22 hours ago* (last edited 22 hours ago)

"I'd rather vote for a guy who skips a tenth of his votes, hikes the electric bill, and tried to overthrow a presidential election before I'd give up weapons used (repeatedly) to slaughter school children"

Mhmm yep. Very normal society.

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[–] reddig33@lemmy.world 28 points 23 hours ago

I’ll believe it when I see it. You can serve filet mignon and Texans will still vote for feces on a platter. Example: Ted Cruz.

[–] daannii@lemmy.world 9 points 20 hours ago (3 children)

I have friends that have or currently do live in Austin.

They have told me the cities are very left leaning.

In Illinois, it's mostly Chicago that keeps this state blue and keeps the red plague from taking over.

It's surprising how much of a foothold the reds have over Texas with Houston , Dallas, and Austin.

3 big cities.

City people are generally more democratic and left leaning. How are these 3 cities not having more of an impact on political seats in Texas?

[–] Zachariah@lemmy.world 13 points 18 hours ago

the gerrymandering is bad in Texas

[–] AugustWest@lemmy.world 11 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago) (1 children)

The population of the Chicago metro area (excluding the 2 WI and 2 IN counties that get lumped in) accounts for 66% of the population of the state.

The combined population of the Houston, Dallas, and Austin metro areas only account for 58% of the population of the state.

Not only that, most of Chicagoland is blue, but you cannot say the same for Texas cities where most of the outlying suburbs of the metro area are red.

The population of Houston proper, Dallas proper, and Austin proper combined only make up 15% of the population of Texas. But Chicago proper alone makes up over 21% of the population of Illinois. Throw in Aurora and Naperville to make the 3 city comparison a little more fair, and you get almost 26% of the population of IL.

[–] Triasha@lemmy.world 6 points 15 hours ago

San Antonio is the 7th largest city in the country, (soon to be the sixth) we have surpassed Philadelphia.

But it has only 1/3rd the density of LA. Famously car centric hellscape LA is 3(?!) times as dense as San Antonio.

I think physical proximity is part of what drives people in cities to vote more democratic. Texas Metro areas so so spread out they don't generate the same voting trends.

The winds of change are blowing. The cities continue to grow and the rural counties populations in West Texas are shrinking, but it will take a very long time for the weight of urbanization to take hold in Texas politics the way it has in Georgia and Virginia.

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[–] Catma@lemmy.world 12 points 23 hours ago (1 children)

I want to believe eapecially since Paxton may be the worst fucking candidate ever.

However i think even assuming Talarico wins Hot Wheels will find a way to claim the election is rife with fraud and appoint Paxton anyway.

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[–] ryper@lemmy.ca 13 points 23 hours ago (1 children)

Wouldn't it be purple, at best? Flipping one Senate seat in a red state isn't going to make the whole place blue.

[–] platypode@sh.itjust.works 9 points 23 hours ago

For sure, but even making Texas remotely competitive would be a huge blow—it’s a large state that takes a lot of money to reach with political advertising, and if republicans have to start campaigning hard to keep their bedrock state then that time and money drain can start dragging other races.

[–] switcheroo@lemmy.world 7 points 21 hours ago

Don't give me hope... Just, don't. 😕

[–] BrianTheeBiscuiteer@lemmy.world 8 points 22 hours ago

I'm at least semi-optimistic because they've known he was the nominee for over a month yet their best insults are calling him "Talifreako" and a "Vaygun". 🤔

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