NicolasName

Previous post from last week. https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1843v7b/my_top_10_mvp_power_rankings_list_based_off_of_epm/

Summary of the method: add epm and estimated win numbers together.

Results:

1. Jokic 14.4

2. SGA 12.6

3. Embiid 12.0

4. Haliburton 9.6

5. Lebron 9.2

6. Chet 9.2

7. Giannis 9.1

8. Curry 9.1

9. Doncic 8.6

10. Scottie Barnes 8.5

11. Durant 8.4

I included Durant since he was so close to 10th place. The above players are the only ones with a score above 8.

Analysis:

SGA and Embiid have the same epm and on court impact, but SGA has played more games so that’s why he has higher numbers and is 2nd and embiid is 3rd. Jokic is atop both the stats and hence why he’s 1st with the formula.

The two players out of the 11 I expect to be most controversial are Chet and Barnes. Most of their impact in terms of EPM comes from their defensive impact. EPM sees both players as top 5 defenders in the league at the moment. The other 9 players offensively are in the top 5% in the league, while those two players are in the top 15% percentile. That’s why I assume their inclusion will be controversial, as defensive impact in terms of stats are typically hard to measure. That said, I think EPM’s defensive stat is a pretty solid defensive stat out there, and it gets better over time as more games are played. In my opinion, it’s still important to include both players, since their defensive prowess could very well be real and not just a statistical aberration, and defensive skillset is an important part of the game and important when evaluating who the best players in the league are in terms of impact.

Also, this week, Giannis and Doncic made it to the top 10. Booker and Durant fell out of the top 10 (but Durant is extremely close at 11).

Note: Any improvement on technique for evaluating players seasons, I’m open to hearing besides watching a bazillion hours of nba games.

I have a simple formula for trying to figure out things like who has been better on the year, or who is most deserving of awards, that isn’t narrative based. Imo, it’s taking what’s considered the best all in one stat, and ranking players for awards based off of that.

Formula is simple: add epm and estimated win numbers together. Early in the season, epm will have more of an influence on the rankings. Later in the season, actual output in estimated wins will have more of an influence.

Without further ado.

1. Nikola Jokic: 11.7

2. SGA: 11.1

3. Embiid: 11.0

4. Lebron: 9.5

5. Haliburton: 9.2

6. Chet: 9.0

7. Scottie Barnes: 8.9

8. Curry: 8.8

9. Booker 8.5

10. Durant: 7.7

It’s still incredibly early in the season, so the rankings above are obviously still liable to change. What I found interesting is Lebron being in the top 5 still at his age (and improving on where he was at last year at this point in time), Chet being in the top 10 (honestly, the biggest stand out), and that Scottie Barnes seems to have clearly taken a leap in terms of his on the court impact. At the moment, the real MVP race seems to be between Jokic, Embiid, and SGA (the two usual suspects and SGA being added to the mix).

OKC’s time, as far as being more focused on winning now instead of the future, may be happening sooner than they thought, and there could be a chance that the organization flips sometime this year or next on moves to improve the team’s play now at the cost of future assets. Both SGA and Chet seem legit in their early run this season. According to epm, on the season (a limited sample size of course), they’re currently the best duo in the league.