Adjusted Passer Rating = Traditional Passer Rating, removing Drops, Throwaways, & Spikes.

^(also note: I am using QB Rating & Passer Rating synonymously. This is not ESPN's QBR.)

Rank	Player	Adj QB Rat		Trd. QB Rat		Biggest Benefactors	Player	Diff
1	Brock Purdy	122.1		115.1		1	Jared Goff	11.7
2	Russell Wilson	114.9		104.3		2	Russell Wilson	10.6
3	Tua Tagovailoa	113.0		106.0		3	Deshaun Watson	9.7
4	Kirk Cousins	111.9		103.8		4	Jalen Hurts	9.4
5	Dak Prescott	111.4		104.0		4	Patrick Mahomes	9.4
6	C.J. Stroud	108.6		99.3		4	Will Levis	9.4
7	Jared Goff	107.8		96.1		7	C.J. Stroud	9.3
8	Lamar Jackson	107.8		100.1		8	Matthew Stafford	9.1
9	Josh Allen	106.0		97.6		9	Bryce Young	9.0
10	Justin Herbert	105.3		99.5		9	Zach Wilson	9.0
11	Jalen Hurts	104.2		94.8		11	Joe Burrow	8.8
12	Patrick Mahomes	103.2		93.8		12	Justin Fields	8.6
13	Justin Fields	101.9		93.3		13	Gardner Minshew II	8.5
14	Joe Burrow	99.8		91.0		14	Josh Allen	8.4
15	Will Levis	98.7		89.3		15	Kirk Cousins	8.1
16	Trevor Lawrence	98.0		92.2		15	Sam Howell	8.1
17	Derek Carr	97.8		89.8		17	Derek Carr	8.0
18	Geno Smith	97.7		89.7		17	Geno Smith	8.0
19	Baker Mayfield	97.5		91.5		19	Lamar Jackson	7.7
20	Sam Howell	96.7		88.6		20	Dak Prescott	7.4
21	Deshaun Watson	94.0		84.3		21	Jordan Love	7.1
22	Gardner Minshew II	92.3		83.8		22	Brock Purdy	7.0
23	Jordan Love	90.9		83.8		22	Tua Tagovailoa	7.0
24	Desmond Ridder	90.5		84.1		24	Ryan Tannehill	6.8
25	Matthew Stafford	89.9		80.8		25	Desmond Ridder	6.4
26	Joshua Dobbs	89.5		84.7		26	Kenny Pickett	6.2
27	Kenny Pickett	85.4		79.2		27	Daniel Jones	6.1
28	Mac Jones	85.3		80.2		28	Baker Mayfield	6.0
29	Bryce Young	83.7		74.7		29	Justin Herbert	5.8
30	Zach Wilson	82.8		73.8		29	Trevor Lawrence	5.8
31	Jimmy Garoppolo	82.4		78.1		29	Tyson Bagent	5.8
32	Ryan Tannehill	78.7		71.9		32	Mac Jones	5.1
33	Tyson Bagent	77.2		71.4		33	Joshua Dobbs	4.8
34	Daniel Jones	76.6		70.5		34	Jimmy Garoppolo	4.3
35	Aidan O'Connell	74.7		70.6		35	Aidan O'Connell	4.1

The bird gauntlet:

Week 12: Seahawks

Week 13: Eagles

Week 14: Seahawks

Week 15: Cardinals

Week 16: Ravens

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547548

DeVito 18/26, 246 yards, 3 TD 0 INT 36.1QBR

Howell 31/45, 255 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT 58.9 QBR

Titans have lost every road game

I was messing around with some adjusted passer ratings a few weeks ago and a lot of the responses wanted Rushing contributions to be included. So I came up with a new method to do so, combining the adjusted Passer Rating (Passer Rating without Drops, Spikes, Throwaways) with Rushing production. That produced what I call QB CPR.

^(Full disclosure: I am a 49ers fan, but I did not do this to overhype Purdy. He was not atop this list when I started (Cousins, Goff, & Stroud were 1, 2, & 3, respectively. Ignore my flair and you will still see differences like Goff, Wilson, and Mahomes vs their traditional rankings.))

​

---

CPR

Adjusted Rating for Combined Passing & Rushing

Rank	Player	CPR	GP	C-Yd	C-TD	C-TO	C-YPA	C-TD%	C-TO%
1	Brock Purdy	117.3	10	2,783	20	7	9.1	6.6%	2.3%
2	Dak Prescott	110.6	10	2,745	21	6	7.4	5.7%	1.6%
3	Russell Wilson	107.4	10	2,297	19	7	6.8	5.6%	2.1%
4	Jared Goff	107.1	10	2,757	18	8	7.2	4.7%	2.1%
5	Tua Tagovailoa	106.4	10	2,973	21	11	8.0	5.6%	3.0%
6	Josh Allen	106.0	11	3,136	29	15	7.2	6.7%	3.4%
7	Justin Herbert	104.7	10	2,795	22	5	7.0	5.5%	1.2%
8	Kirk Cousins	104.5	8	2,356	18	9	7.2	5.5%	2.8%
9	C.J. Stroud	103.5	10	3,047	19	9	8.1	5.0%	2.4%
10	Jalen Hurts	102.3	10	2,842	24	12	6.7	5.6%	2.8%
11	Lamar Jackson	100.0	11	2,976	17	11	7.4	4.2%	2.7%
12	Patrick Mahomes	99.4	10	2,915	19	11	6.9	4.5%	2.6%
13	Joe Burrow	96.6	10	2,397	15	7	6.1	3.8%	1.8%
14	Sam Howell	95.7	11	3,247	20	14	6.8	4.2%	2.9%
15	Justin Fields	94.0	7	1,711	13	8	6.8	5.2%	3.2%
16	Baker Mayfield	93.7	10	2,528	15	7	6.5	3.8%	1.8%
17	Derek Carr	93.6	10	2,264	10	6	6.4	2.8%	1.7%
18	Geno Smith	93.4	10	2,469	12	9	6.9	3.4%	2.5%
19	Trevor Lawrence	93.2	10	2,622	13	10	6.9	3.4%	2.6%
20	Will Levis	91.7	4	872	6	3	6.4	4.4%	2.2%
21	Jordan Love	91.6	10	2,513	18	10	6.7	4.8%	2.7%
22	Deshaun Watson	89.5	6	1,257	8	6	6.4	4.1%	3.0%
23	Matthew Stafford	89.2	9	2,329	9	8	7.2	2.8%	2.5%
24	Gardner Minshew II	86.8	10	1,765	10	10	6.5	3.7%	3.7%
25	Joshua Dobbs	85.9	11	2,605	18	13	6.0	4.2%	3.0%
26	Desmond Ridder	84.8	9	1,890	10	12	6.8	3.6%	4.3%
27	Kenny Pickett	83.9	10	1,768	7	4	5.6	2.2%	1.3%
28	Mac Jones	82.0	10	2,127	10	12	6.1	2.9%	3.4%
29	Jimmy Garoppolo	80.8	6	1,244	7	9	6.6	3.7%	4.8%
30	Ryan Tannehill	80.4	6	1,168	3	6	6.9	1.8%	3.5%
31	Bryce Young	79.8	9	1,821	9	11	5.3	2.6%	3.2%
32	Daniel Jones	77.9	6	1,115	3	7	5.6	1.5%	3.5%
33	Tyson Bagent	76.7	5	968	5	8	5.8	3.0%	4.8%
34	Zach Wilson	76.3	10	2,143	6	12	6.1	1.7%	3.4%
35	Aidan O'Connell	70.7	5	955	4	8	6.3	2.6%	5.3%
36	P.J. Walker	52.3	5	649	1	6	5.9	0.9%	5.5%

GUIDE:

• CPR = Adjusted Passer Rating + Rushing Production
  • Adjusted Passer Rating = Passer Rating after eliminating Drops, Throwaways, & Spikes
  • Combined with Rushing Yds, TDs, & Fumbles Lost
• C-Yd = Combined Yards (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TD = Combined TDs (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TO = Combined Turnovers (Rushing + Passing)
• C-YPA = Combined Yards Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TD% = Combined TD% Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TO% = Combined Turnover% Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)

---

CPR2

While doing all this I was looking for another metric to account for players that were doing the majority of the work. That is to say, not benefiting strictly of YAC. So I came up with another metric for this. CPR2 takes the original CPR metric and strips the YAC.

• As an example, it is much harder to earn a perfect rating this way.
  • Keenan Allen is 1/1 for a 49 yd TD. Under both standard and my CPR Rating that would be a 158.3 Rating. However, with CPR2 that becomes a 142.2 Rating. In this rating, perfect means perfect. K.Allen would have had to throw 1/1 for 49 Air Yards on a TD.

Adjusted Rating for Combined Passing & Rushing, further adjusted away from YAC

Rank	Player	CPR2	AYPC	YAC/Cmp	CRAY%	CYAC%	wk10 Rank	Rank Change
1	Brock Purdy	130.5	7.4	6.4	55.6%	44.4%	3	+2
2	Dak Prescott	129.6	6.2	4.8	58.6%	41.4%	1	-1
3	Jalen Hurts	128.1	6.4	4.7	62.6%	37.4%	2	-1
4	C.J. Stroud	127.0	8.0	5.3	61.4%	38.6%	6	+2
5	Lamar Jackson	122.8	6.2	5.5	61.4%	38.6%	7	+2
6	Kirk Cousins	121.1	6.2	4.6	57.9%	42.1%	8	+2
7	Josh Allen	118.8	5.6	5.2	56.0%	44.0%	5	-2
8	Justin Fields	116.7	6.2	5.6	62.1%	37.9%	16	+8
9	Jared Goff	116.3	6.0	5.1	54.3%	45.7%	10	+1
10	Justin Herbert	114.6	5.7	5.3	54.7%	45.3%	15	+5
11	Tua Tagovailoa	113.1	6.4	5.8	53.1%	46.9%	12	+1
12	Russell Wilson	110.9	4.7	5.4	51.6%	48.4%	11	-1
13	Joshua Dobbs	110.5	5.6	4.0	64.3%	35.7%	13	--
14	Trevor Lawrence	109.2	5.7	4.8	58.6%	41.4%	22	+8
15	Deshaun Watson	107.9	5.9	4.8	60.3%	39.7%	19	+4
16	Desmond Ridder	104.7	6.3	4.5	61.7%	38.3%	20	+4
17	Sam Howell	103.9	5.3	5.0	54.3%	45.7%	17	--
18	Matthew Stafford	103.8	7.0	5.3	58.2%	41.8%	14	-4
19	Baker Mayfield	102.9	5.5	5.0	54.9%	45.1%	18	-1
20	Jordan Love	101.8	6.0	5.5	55.6%	44.4%	21	+1
21	Jimmy Garoppolo	100.8	6.7	4.3	62.4%	37.6%	23	+2
22	Derek Carr	100.5	5.4	4.8	53.7%	46.3%	24	+2
23	Geno Smith	98.6	5.7	5.3	52.8%	47.2%	25	+2
24	Will Levis	98.1	6.2	5.6	53.4%	46.6%	32	+8
25	Patrick Mahomes	97.7	4.5	5.9	49.2%	50.8%	26	+1
26	Ryan Tannehill	94.7	6.6	4.9	58.9%	41.1%	27	+1
27	Daniel Jones	94.3	4.3	4.1	60.5%	39.5%	28	+1
28	Joe Burrow	93.3	4.4	5.1	48.3%	51.7%	31	+3
29	Gardner Minshew II	92.5	5.5	5.1	53.3%	46.7%	29	--
30	Bryce Young	87.1	4.3	4.2	54.6%	45.4%	30	--
31	Zach Wilson	84.1	5.2	5.1	55.1%	44.9%	33	+2
32	Kenny Pickett	81.9	4.8	5.3	48.8%	51.2%	34	+2
33	Mac Jones	77.3	4.3	5.3	47.2%	52.8%	35	+2
34	Tyson Bagent	74.6	3.9	5.3	48.7%	51.3%	36	+2
35	Aidan O'Connell	64.1	4.7	5.8	45.3%	54.7%	37	+2
36	P.J. Walker	44.7	5.1	7.8	42.7%	57.3%	38	+2

Guide:

• CPR2 = Takes CPR and adjusts it toward the % of a player's total yards are not from YAC.
  • This is designed to give a more accurate picture of what a QB is doing (as both a runner & passer) separate from the receiver.
• AYPC = Air Yards Per Completion
• YAC/Cmp = Yards After Catch, per Completion
• CRAY = % of Combined Yards from Rushing and Air Yards
• CYAC = % of Combined Yards from Yards after the Catch

---

Stats vs Context

• A stat like Passer Rating is just a stat. It doesn't give context. You still have to take the stat and apply context to it.
• CPR is just a stat. You still have to apply context to it. But hopefully, this gives a more accurate piece of the picture than basic passer rating.

---

Common Q&A:

• Does CPR2 favor QBs who have a very strong arm and launch a lot of deep balls?.
  • No. Arm Strength is a routine criticism of Purdy. But he can functionally throw an accurate deep ball without the greatest arm strength.
• Does CPR2 favor QBs who launch a lot of deep balls?
  • Not necessarily. R.Tannehill leads the NFL in Intended Air Yards per attempt. Watson is 2nd, J.Love is 4th. But none of them rank that highly overall.
• Does CPR2 hurt QBs who get a lot of YAC?
  • No. When you look at Stroud you can see he leads the NFL in Air Yards per completion. But he is also 6th in YAC/Cmp. Purdy is 2nd & 1st. Tua is 6th and 3rd. It is possible to get both Air Yards and YAC.
• Why punish checkdowns?
  • the design is not to "punish" anyone. CPR2, specifically, is designed to credit those that are doing more outside of YAC, specifically including on the ground, which is the original criticism I was addressing.
• Why strip away YAC:?
  • Stripping YAC shows more of the individual contribution, especially with the legs. Which is why you see good runners like Hurts and Lamar take a leap. Their traditional passer rating, invented before the age of mobile QBs, doesn't properly give them credit for this overall play.

Their remaining schedule goes:

Commanders (4-7) Seahawks (6-4) Eagles (9-1) Bills (6-5) Dolphins (7-3) Lions (8-2) Commanders (4-7)

Five straight games against winning teams.

There has been so much focus on the Marquez Valdes-Scantling drop that would have given the Chiefs the lead late in the fourth quarter. The assumption is the Chiefs would have won if he makes that catch. Putting aside there was 1:45 left, the Eagles had 3 timeouts left, and Hurts has five 4th quarter comeback wins already on a team that rarely trailed in the fourth quarter, let's focus more on why this happed.

Does Tyreek Hill catch this pass? You are damn right he does. Does he make that 4th and 25 catch on that incredible Mahomes throw. Yep. Most likely. But the Chiefs made a choice. They traded Hill before the 2022 season. They spend their 2022 draft loading up on defense and drafting Skyy Moore. They then let JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman go before the 2023 season.

So the team KC chose to field had a much better defense and much weaker WR core. That led to the Eagles to put up only 21 points against them. Go back in time and keep those WRs, you get a more potent offense but continue to have significant problems with a weak defense.

So, does Hill catch that ball? Yep, 99%. But, in that same what if, the Eagles could easily have put up 35 points on a weaker KC defense making that late game catch not matter.

In the end, the 2023 version of two great teams played. One kept their incredible WRs to compliment their electric QB. One did not. One made half time adjustments, executed the big plays at the right time, created the red zone turnovers, and won the game. The other had major issues with dropped passes and poorly run routes that cost them the game.

Today marks the 60th anniversary of the JFK assassination. This article goes into the controversial decision of the NFL and Pete Rozelle to hold games two days later.

• Rozelle later would regret holding the games. He faced public pressure from Governor George Romney (father of Mitt) who urged him to cancel the games. He declined.

• Kennedy had signed the sports broadcasting act which essentially forced the NFL into Sunday broadcasts so as not to conflict with college football. Incidentally, Amazon as a streaming service is not beholden to this law and thus can broadcast NFL games at their leisure,

• NFL owners were fairly divided to play the games or not. Dan Rooney urged Rozelle to cancel, but Rozelle declined.

• The AFL canceled games, causing some public backlash against the NFL.

• Rozelle was a personal friend of Kennedy’s and was very depressed following Kennedy’s murder.

• Even though some fans were upset with the decision to play, many sellout crowds still happened that weekend, including a 63,000 seat sellout between the Cardinals and Giants,

• When the Cowboys arrived in Cleveland for a game, some of the baggage handlers at the airport refused to handle their bags because JFK had been killed in Dallas. “We were [viewed as] killers, [as though] we had killed the president,” Dallas tight end Pettis Norman later said, according to a 2021 History.com story.” Art Modell requested the announcers simply refer to the team as the “Cowboys” instead of the “Dallas Cowboys.”

Really fascinating read.

Hey all. Just wanted to share some statistics I found while looking at the 2023 Browns defense so far this year. Keep in mind the Browns have already had their bye week while a few teams have not.

 

The Browns defense...

 

• Has given up 2433 total yards which is over 200 less than 2nd place.

• Have the lowest passing yards against (1437) and Lowest Passing TDs against (9)

• Has the lowest QB Rate against (71.6) and completion percentage against (55.3%)

• Has the highest expected points contributed at 88.61.

• Has the highest sack percentage (11.1%) and #2 in pressure percentage (27.6%)

• Has the highest tackles for loss at 64

• Has the lowest 1st downs allowed (126) which is 37 fewer than 2nd place.

• Allow ONLY 3.2 3rd down conversions per game.

• Has Allowed only 32 out of 126 3rd downs to be converted for a 3rd down conversion percentage of 25.3%. The NFL record is the 2019 Patriots at 24.1%. The next lowest percentage is the Cowboys at 32.8%

• Has allowed the lowest percentage of offensive drives to end in a score (21.7%)

 

Now for the craziest stats...

 

• The Browns defense has faced the 2nd most drives against them in the league (Giants #1 with 1 more game). While the Browns have faced the 2nd most drives total, the Browns defense have the LEAST amount of total plays against them by 40(!) plays.

• Offenses against the Browns defense have the 9th BEST average starting field position in the league

• Per Drive teams only have 4.3 plays, 18.8 yards, 2:01 time of possession, and 1.24 points against the Browns.

 

So essentially, teams usually have good starting field possession and the most opportunities to score on the Browns, but can rarely even get a first down let alone score.

 

Some other pretty mindblowing miscellaneous stats...

 

• The Bears have allowed more completed passes than the amount of passes attempted vs. Browns

• The Browns defense only allows 14.6 completed passes per game

• 13.6% of the TOTAL points scored against the Browns have been defensive touchdowns from turnovers.

• Browns defense has kept opposing QBs under 150 passing 5 times (Burrow 82, Tannehill 104, Purdy 125, Tune 58, Pickett 106)

• Browns defense is on pace for 2442.9 total passing yards against. The 1985 Bears defense allowed 2816 in 1 fewer game. 143 yards per game to 176 yards per game.

 

I don't really know the historical significance of any of these stats so if anyone wants to contribute anything interesting it would be greatly appreciated. Also to note, the Browns run defense has been good but not great. They have been gashed for some big plays, which makes the total yards number even more crazy. All these numbers are being put up with a fairly bad offense that doesn't move the ball extremely well and turns the ball over a lot.

 

Side note: The Browns remaining schedule also features remaining games against the Bears, the Jets, and the Bengals all in Ohio in December. The Broncos game has a high of 40 degrees so weather should start to factor in with some of these games.

 

Side note #2: I got most of these stats from Pro Football Reference and I am not a statistician so if anything is wrong don't sue me.

Thought this was an interesting discussion for a few reasons.

First of all, he absolutely deserves it.

The Vikings who had one of the worst defenses in the league in almost all statistical categories, with largely the same players are 14th in PFF grade, 8th in DVOA, 11th in ESPN’s defensive efficiency metric, 13th in YPG and 15th in PPG.

It’s a ridiculous turnaround that Flo is undeniably responsible for.

But then you add the layer of the lawsuit, will owners want to touch that?

Plus, Flo was in what he viewed as a toxic organization last go around. Will he be picky? He has to know this will be his last shot at a HC gig. He also has small kids and has stated a bunch of times how much they enjoy living in MN.

Last factor here is the Vikings ownership who have time and time again opened their pockets to get the team whatever it needs. I have no doubt they would be willing to give him the Assistant HC title and make him the highest paid assistant coach in the league.

So what do you think happens here, does Flo take a job this offseason?

r/NFL Scoring Game - Week 12 Standings and Picks

Week 11 results

Week 11 standings and picks

The highest picked team was the Texans scored 21 points. The lowest scoring team that was picked was Washington with 19 points, and the highest was the Cowboys with 33 points.

Top 3

Not a lot of changes at the top:

• u/DanOfBradford78 is at the top with 357 points

• u/Tameyoshi at number 2 with 348 points

• u/doctor_ben at number 3 with 336 points

Week 12 picks

Don't forget that this week we have 3 games on Thursday and 1 on Friday.

Please remember that you cannot choose a team you already took in a previous week. You can subscribe to r/NFLScoringGame for reminders.

Submit your Week 12 picks here

Additionally, the Dolphins also lead the league in yards per drive.

Happy Thanskgiving Week, /r/NFL! I'm thankful that all you goobers read this series every year and participate. We had kind of a crazy Week 11 where I broke even, going 7-7 and bringing me to 108-56 on the season. How did everyone else do? As is Thanksgiving tradition, we have three Turkey Day games on Thursday. We also have our first Black Friday game this year, which will be fun. We have a massive 10 division games this week, with three inter-conference and two cross-conference games lined up. I may be throwing some Thanksgiving puns in my predictions... fair warning. Let's get to it!

---

Winner		Loser	Comments
Lions	over	Packers	Our first Turkey Day matchup, and it'll be a good division one. The Pack's offense found more of a groove around Love recently and played more inspired defense. They should have some confidence for going into this rematch from Week 4 losing 34-20. The Lions will try to take pressure off Goff early with a heavy dose of running and shortening the game so they can get home for a heavy Thanksgiving meal.
Cowboys	over	Commanders	The second course is less appetizing, as the Commanders just lost at home to the Giants. Dallas beat those same Giants 49-17. They rip into bad teams by pouring it on with Dak's passing, the running game, defense and special teams. The Commanders tend to show up in holiday division matchups, so maybe this game won't be overcooked.
49ers	over	Seattle	The Niner's offense looks really good at this point. Purdy is in the zone with all of his weapons clicking at the same time. The defense is battling through more injuries, but the pass rush is revved up and still shutting down the run. Smith is hurting on a short week and should be without Walker in the backfield. It's not looking good for Seattle after it lost to the Rams and San Fra keeps the home team in a tryptophan stupor.
Dolphins	over	Jets	Miami needs to remember to run the ball and not get too pass happy with Tua. The Jets are weak defending the rushing attack. They can't put Tua in a situation against a great pass rush and coverage. The Jets find a little more offense this week with Boyle, but it's not enough as the Dolphins' defense comes through to not spill the gravy.
Saints	over	Falcons	The Saints have a little more stability and consistency with their offense vs. the Falcons, who are dealing with unknowns at QB and suspect personnel issues. Both teams are coming off a bye, and it's easier to trust Allen and his staff than Smith. This division matchup is always sloppy, but I think NOLA feasts of Dirty Bird this week.
Steelers	over	Bengals	The Steelers still have Pickett at QB, which is better than the Bengals' situation minus Burrow. That didn't help them against the Watson-less Browns last week, but they can get on track running the ball and take advantage of their rival hosts also having other key injuries. Browning is going to have issues against Watt coming for his cornbread stuffing.
Titans	over	Panthers	Reich's seat is hotter than the oil in a turkey fryer at this point. The Panthers are the lone one-win team left in the NFL, and it has been ugly all season. Tennessee averaged 12 PPG through a three-game losing streak, and Henry has just 45.7 rushing YPG in those losses. Henry gives Levis some run support, but Young keeps this battle of rookie QBs closer than expected.
Buccaneers	over	Colts	The Bucs have lost five of six, three of them were one-score losses. With no running game Tampa is last in the league with 76.9 rushing YPG and can't be trusted on the road. Indy had a bye week and they remain in the playoff hunt, but I'm picking Baker to "bake" up some pumpkin pie throws out to Evans and Godwin.
Patriots	over	Giants	Ah, this old Super Bowl chestnut. These two teams are a far cry from the Brady and Manning-led powerhouses we were used to. The Pats may give us a new starting QB this week, and coming off a bye, this could be the slight edge they need to win over DeVito.
Jaguars	over	Texans	Great division game here. Jacksonville is 1-4 vs. Houston with Lawrence as its starting QB. But they are also 4-1 when they rush for at least 100 yards and limit their opponent to less than 100 yards. It's simple, they have to get after Stroud. Jacksonville is 3-2 when the spread is three points or less. If they don't spill the cranberry sauce, the Jags could stay on top of the division after this week.
Broncos	over	Browns	Denver's on a hot streak, winning it's last four games. Cleveland has that elite defense, though, and they just brought on former Ravens Super Bowl QB Flacco to help DTR. This will be another close one but I think Russ will "cook" up some delicious plays to edge past the Browns.
Rams	over	Cardinals	The Rams smashed the Cards 26-9 in the first meeting. Stafford led a comeback victory against Seattle, and now another opportunity on the road presents itself. Stafford is 2-1 in head-to-head against Murray, so this game could be tighter than you trying to fit into skinny jeans after eating all that turkey.
Chiefs	over	Raiders	A win here would probably get Pierce the full-time HC job. KC is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, including three wins at Vegas by an average of 16.3 PPG. They're working on a short week, but the Raiders will need to have more success on the ground to keep up with a Chiefs' team that turns the ball over a little too much. Not planning for an upset, but Pierce could spike the eggnog on this one.
Eagles	over	Bills	The Eagles have a short week going to a hit-or-miss Buffalo team that is 1-3 on the road. Philly is 4-1 when they get four or more sacks, so look for this defense to turn up the heat on this Allen meal. Hurts does the rest, and the Eagles feast on Buffalo this week.
Ravens	over	Chargers	The Ravens are rolling with another AFC North title in sight with their competition fading because of injury and attrition. Jackson has struggled with the Chargers in the past and their passing issues make them look less appetizing than a green bean casserole. The Chargers' defense will play a little more inspired at home with Staley on the hottest of seats. Herbert also can keep his team in the game with wild-card hopes on the line.
Vikings	over	Bears	Minnesota couldn't finish well against Denver, but that changes back at home in prime time. Dobbs' mobility and playmaking can cause Chicago's defense problems and there's a good chance Minnesota will put Jefferson on the field before the bye. With him stretching the field, it will open up plays elsewhere. Then the Vikings' run defense and pass rush will take care of the rest to contain Fields, making him look drier than the white meant of that turkey you just ate.

---

Those are my predictions, let's hear yours. Keep it civil and fun. Best of luck and Happy Thanksgiving!

​

https://preview.redd.it/586ofcrl9x1c1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=7005ac63957472471ab545e7da6d663df2e14469

​

We’ve arrived at the week of Thanksgiving and since I’m in a generous, giving mood, I decided to give something to look forward to for fanbases of the teams that aren’t currently projected to be factors in the playoff picture. And while this includes a couple of teams from the NFC South, that could ultimately still host a playoff game due to the division they’re in, and two .500 teams from the AFC, I think when you look at the list of teams, they all still lack certain elements, which the best way to acquire those is with high draft picks.

I will start by quickly listing the current draft order – if the season ended today – then share my general bird's-eye view of the upcoming class, before we work our way through each team, shortly discussing their overall state and how they may already look ahead to February through April with their scouting staffs to some degree.

The cut-off for the teams discussed here is pick 16, which makes sense considering the next teams up would be the Bengals and Bills before we get to the current playoff seeds – Cincinnati may have a couple of uncomfortable decisions to make in free agency but were on pace to be one of the most dangerous groups in the AFC, while Buffalo is still very much in the thick of things with the way they looked this past Sunday and being just half a game back from the number seven seed.

​

​

https://preview.redd.it/0mzrtjd5zv1c1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=6b90f850c24c23b18260cfb37913e0772d07ed1c

​

Graphic provided by tankathon.com

​

​

​

https://preview.redd.it/lpfk7mu9zv1c1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7be0ce0026a2597dea64bf0231c16dbc061f493

​

General thoughts on the ’24 class:

​

I’m glad to be ahead of schedule at this point of the calendar year compared to the past in terms of my draft evaluations, particularly because I know the type of effort it takes every year to get to a point, where I feel like I can talk about 85-90% of drafted players in an educated fashion. This past April, I made it exactly through the first five rounds until a name was announced who I hadn’t studied on tape. Right now, I have extended notes on close to 150 prospects expected to be part of this upcoming class. I haven’t done in-depth studies on them, to where I’d feel comfortable actually ranking them in order, particularly considering many of them still have key conference championships and potentially even playoff games to evaluate. However, I definitely have a good grasp on the top-end talent and depth at every position group, players I feel will transition well to the next level, and mostly how the NFL will look at them, pending medical reports.

​

Therefore, in terms of those top-16 selections I’ve referenced, here are the players I’m pretty certain will be part of that group:

Quarterbacks (2) – Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina)

Wide receivers (3) – Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State), Malik Nabers (LSU) and Keon Coleman (Florida State)

Tight-end (1) – Brock Bowers (Georgia)

Offensive tackles (3) – Olu Fashanu (Penn State), Joe Alt (Notre Dame) and J.C. Latham (Alabama)

Edge defenders (2) – Dallas Turner (Alabama) and Chop Robinson (Penn State)

Interior D-line (1) – Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)

Cornerback (1) – Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)

​

Other players in consideration right now: EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State), DB Cooper DeJean (Iowa), WR Rome Odunze (Washington), CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson), OT Amarius Mims (Georgia), CB Kalen King (Penn State) and multiple quarterbacks

​

​

We’ve got a long process in front of us, but ultimately I have a hard time imagining a situation where the first two players off the board aren’t those two QBs, unless the Cardinals stick at number two overall and don’t find a trade partner. At this point, the pendulum has swung too far regarding the public perception of Caleb Williams in regard to the rest of the class. I have seen him operate effectively in structure as part of an Air Raid offense when his protection hasn’t been atrocious, plus then he adds a play-making component to the table that is second to none who I’ve ever studied. Yet, I can equally see many teams fall in love with Drake Maye, who plays the position more by the book, but has incredible arm talent and athletic skills, very reminiscent of Justin Herbert to me, although we actually have gotten to see him read the full field and make more NFL-type of throws at UNC, compared to Herbert at Oregon. To me, it’s a true 1A and 1B situation. Where it becomes interesting is if a team falls in love with one of the following four names I’d say – Michael Penix Jr. (Washington), Bo Nix (Oregon), J.J. McCarthy (Michigan), or Jayden Daniels (LSU). Depending on who ultimately declares, this could be one of the deepest groups of signal-callers we’ve ever seen, but at that position, you don’t wait around on “your guy” typically.

After the top two QBs, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Olu Fashanu are true blue-chip players, who I believe will be treated as such by the league. Both wide receiver and offensive tackle appear very exciting and we could see two or three other names at those respective spots come off the board over the front half of the first round, but Harrison and Fashanu separate themselves due to their combination of insane natural talent and technical prowess at this stage of their careers – in particular the Ohio State pass-catcher when it comes to the latter part. While the sheer amount of WR names as usual exceeds OTs and there is a certain element of scarcity by position that could to teams feeling like they can wait a little bit on pass-catchers, I do believe this group includes talents that are worthy of overlooking that aspect. That includes Georgia TE Brock Bowers, who is easily in a tier of his own and should absolutely hear his name called early, despite positional value elements that may go against him.

Edge defender is a very interesting group, because I don’t believe there are as many high-end prospects in this discussion. There are plenty of day two and especially day three guys to consider, but after the top-six names I’d say, there’s a pretty significant drop-off. I did not include UCLA edge defender Laiatu Latu as part of the list above, due to a lack of knowledge on his medical situation, considering he was once forced to retire from the sport temporarily based on a neck injury. However, in terms of the best players right now, I think he’s the alpha of the group actually, even though Dallas Turner and Chop Robinson have more freakish athletic traits, which the NFL covets. Jared Verse has lost some shine, but I think in a vacuum, if you didn’t compare him to the 2022 version of himself – which I expected to enter this past draft – he still is certainly part of this conversation. I’ll also throw in Illinois DT “Johnny” Newton here, who provides the type of quick-twitch ability you see from the elite interior pass-rushers around the league, along with being a consistent disruptor in the run game.

At cornerback, Kool-Aid McKinstry seems to be the one name locked in for the top-ten, considering how good his tape is, while having the size measurables any defensive coordinator dreams of. Kalen King unfortunately has regressed a little bit from the guy I loved watching in the summer, who would just attack downhill as the ball comes out or he was asked to support the run. Cooper DeJean was announced to miss the rest of Iowa’s season last week unfortunately, but he’ll be an intriguing name, with the size to play safety and legit punt return skills, but also quality film covering receivers inside and out. And then the name to really keep an eye on is Nate Wiggins, who is a super-twitched-up, aggressive player, who showed off his long speed on an unbelievable chase-down tackle this past Saturday against North Carolina, where he turned what should’ve been a touchdown into a fumble and touchback for his Tigers. I could see like another 12 corners come off the board within the top-100 picks ultimately, however.

I don’t have a linebacker or safety as part of this discussion currently. Two Clemson linebackers – Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Barrett Carter – are in contention for later first-round picks, plus I think a guy that could have a meteoric rise at that spot is Texas A&M’s Edgerrin Cooper, as he blows up the combine and people go back to his tape, since not many people are yet really paying attention to an underperforming Aggies program. On the back-end, Miami’s Kamren Kinchens and Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin bring the combination of range, football IQ, and ball-skills that the NFL is looking for at the position to address early, but I’d so somewhere in the 20s feels more appropriate in general and we haven’t seen teams really target those guys earlier than that in recent years.

Let’s now get to the specific landing spots and where all these teams may be looking to go!

​

​

​

https://preview.redd.it/qxnoj2uczv1c1.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=9da31d561b3a562c44b36e0886f036ec1a60b85b

​

Picks 1-16:

1. Chicago Bears – via Carolina Panthers (1-9)

After “earning” the first overall pick last year and trading it to the Panthers, who ultimately used it on Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, the Bears will once again be the defining team and the ones who control the upcoming draft the most. Carolina certainly didn’t expect to hand over the same draft capital plus D.J. Moore ultimately for moving up eight spots in April, but being a game below Arizona with zero compared to two wins in-conference, this likely appears to be the case. Even if the Panthers were to win a couple more games, Chicago has all the ammo to make an offer to who’d move ahead of them that those guys almost can’t refuse. What’ll be interesting with them is if Justin Fields can show them enough down the stretch that his recent improvements make them double-guess if they should go quarterback again and depending on how high their own selection will ultimately be, if they target another blue-chip player – something they desperately need – or if another team wants to come up and send even more draft capital for next year to Chicago. Considering they just traded a high second-round pick for a player on his rookie contract for the second year in a row with Montez Sweat, they may prefer the former. Yet, here’s a world in which they end up with Marvin Harrison Jr., and Olu Fashanu and receive an extra pick via trade, if Fields shows out the final seven weeks here. That would obviously be insane. However, if they love Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, that may not matter. And you have to question if this coaching staff will be trusted with making those enormous decisions, particularly if both selections remain in the top-four or -five, and even Ryan Poles has made some questionable decisions during his short stint as general manager.

​

2. Arizona Cardinals (2-9)

While the Cardinals were the odds-on favorites to pick first overall before the season started, this is starting to very much feel like the 2019 Dolphins or 2021 Lions, where they play hard for that coaching staff and possibly win a couple of games down the stretch, but still end up with a high pick of their own and excess draft capital, to where they can turn things around fairly quickly. So this could be a true win-win situation. How exactly they approach this stage of the rebuild under GM Monti Ossenfort and HC Jonathan Gannon is still very much in the air though. The biggest determining factor of course is their decision at quarterback. For a while, it seemed like they were likely shopping Kyler Murray during the offseason and selecting one of the top two signal-callers. Yet, even if they looked at this as a showcase for the former number one pick from 2019 originally, with the play-making abilities he’s shown in just his first two games back from the torn ACL, he may play well enough to take Arizona out of the Caleb-Drake sweepstakes and get this regime on board with building around Kyler anyway. They’ve proven they’re not the worst roster in the league, but you could argue the only other cornerstone players they have are most recent first-rounder Paris Johnson Jr. at offensive tackle and safety Budda Baker. What really dictates that decision is the fact that Murray will carry an average cap hit of 49 million dollars, while they’re at a stage of their life cycle where they still need to hit on a lot of moves before they can compete with the 49ers and the rest of the NFC West. With book-ends offensively under contract, Marquise Brown being a free agent, may tilt them towards Marvin Harrison Jr. if they have their choice of non-QBs.

​

3. New England Patriots (2-8)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. I was pretty much right there with the sportsbooks, who had the Patriots win total set at 7.5, when I predicted they’d go 8-9. While I saw the shortcomings this offense may have again, I thought under Bill O’Brien they would at least not be abysmal, while the defense had a chance to end up as a top-five unit in the NFL. However, the lack of difference-making skill-position players, injuries on the O-line, still rather uninspiring offensive designs, and Mac Jones at times actively rebelling against the offense it seems like, has that unit ranked 29th in EPA per play. The defense has been marked by injury, but even special teams have been a major problem, with only one team below them in DVOA. I never thought we’d actually get here, but at this point it’s fair to ask if Bill Belichick will even be the one in control of this entire organization for a 25th season. So we may not have a clue who ultimately makes those decisions in New England. With that being said, as it pertains to what they’ll do with this selection, it may not make a difference. I’m not ready to totally rule out Mac Jones being a franchise quarterback, because I wouldn’t say a ton has changed about the guy who was an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist, other than how he’s dealt with his frustrations on and off the field over the last two years. Of course, if New England does end up with a top-two pick, it’s a no-brainer to take one of the top-tier QBs. If they stick here at three though, going Marvin Harrison Jr. is an even bigger lay-up. He adds the dynamism this WR group desperately needs, but Bill – and any other coach – will love his hard-working mentality and attention to detail as a route-runner.

​

4. Chicago Bears (3-8)

See the paragraph at number one overall.

​

5. New York Giants (3-8)

The biggest movers of this past week were the Giants, who “dropped” down three spots in terms of draft order with their win at Washington, while the teams now ahead of them all either lost or had a bye week. As fun as it probably was for New Yorkers to see the lovable Tommy DeVito hit a couple of deep bombs to beat a divisional rival, this could end up having massive effects on what their future as a franchise looks like. Of course, they did lock up quarterback Daniel Jones on a four-year, 160-million-dollar contract – which I and many others already questioned at the time – but if they ended up owning the second pick in the draft, I think they would’ve been willing to worst case eat a 22.2-million dead cap hit after the 2024 season and build around Williams/Maye. While we haven’t seen much of left tackle Andrew Thomas this season, I believe between him and DT Dexter Lawrence, they have a legit All-Pro level player on each side of the ball, while Kayvon Thibodeaux is really coming on and they could still revisit a potential extension for Saquon Barkley, who is playing the RB position as well as he arguably ever has done. Beyond that, they hope some of their recent draft picks end up turning into plus starters and there’s still a lot to like about the Daboll-Kafka-Martindale coaching trio. With all three of their wins coming against the NFC and some more winnable games on the slate – especially if the Eagles end up sitting starters in week 18 – I think they’ve taken themselves out of the QB sweepstakes. So this decision will likely come down to whether they want to take on another project, where they convert Olu Fashanu or Notre Dame’s Joe Alt from the left to the right side and move Evan Neal inside – who they so far absolutely failed at doing the same. Even if WR1 is off the board, I could see them fall in love with LSU’s Malik Nabers ability to detach vertically and create after the catch, to complement their 17 different slot receivers.

​

6. Tennessee Titans (3-7)

Another team that wasn’t quite expected to pick this high up – even though I personally had them going 7-10 this season – is the Titans. They actually started the season 2-2 and could’ve easily been 3-1, if not for a likely fumble return touchdown whistled dead in week one at the Saints. However, since then they’ve been outscored 144-to-96, with their only other win coming in rookie quarterback Will Levis’ spectacular debut. The excitement since that day has certainly worn off, with two touchdowns and interceptions each, following the four TD and zero INT performance. However, while I considered Levis worthy of a mid- to late-first-round pick personally rather than falling to the early second, reasonable expectations in year one were that he takes over in case the Titans fall out of playoff contention mid-way through the season and that he’ll likely struggle on. That’s in part due to some of the decision-making on his part, but even more based around the fact that they had no proven commodities along the O-line, Derrick Henry was starting to slow down a little bit and DeAndre Hopkins in year 11 was the only reliable pass-catcher on the team. And while they’ll be forced to make some tough decisions along their aging defense – which already included trading away perennial All-Pro safety Kevin Byard to Philadelphia for a bag of peanuts – that’s where I think they need to go with this selection. Tennessee’s brass was very happy about Peter Skoronski falling to them at 11th overall this past April and with his inside-out flexibility, he’ll be a corner-stone piece up front for them for a decade probably. While they could certainly go with another OT in case Joe Alt makes it to them, I think they just need a difference-maker at wide receiver and they’ll likely take the highest-drafted one since they took Corey Davis fifth overall back in 2017. So this probably comes down to LSU’s Malik Nabers or FSU’s Keon Coleman, especially considering Treylon Burks simply hasn’t been able to stay healthy and produce for them.

​

7. Washington Commanders (4-7)

This Washington franchise just seems to be stuck in the mud. While Ron Rivera currently still holds the title of head coach, when they traded away edge defenders Montez Sweat and Chase Young – especially with the latter seemingly just being an order to get rid of for a compensatory third-round pick – it was a clear indication that new ownership wants to bring in “their guys” this offseason and the current regime of Rivera, defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and general manager Martin Mayhew are just dead men walking. What will be interesting is how this group at the top views current OC Eric Bienemy, who has done a solid job I’d say considering the circumstances, and helped quarterback Sam Howell to at least be functional. Depending on the circumstances, I could see EB sticking around, although Howell at the very least will be competing with somebody else. And that brings us to our first conversation around the extremely tough question “Who is QB3 in this class?”. Based on consensus boards, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. are projected to go in the early 20s, while LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Oregon’s Bo Nix find themselves in the early 30s. Keep in mind – these are general rankings and don’t fully weigh positional value, although we’ve seen teams recently wait on a quarterback if they didn’t go really early. I would love to see Penix air it out to those Commander receivers, but with his injury history and certain accuracy questions, I don’t believe any of these guys are quite worthy of going this highly. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if this crew wants to complete the trifecta of new GM, HC and QB, but after trading away Sweat and Young, Washington seems primed to take their top edge defenders on the board. Penn State’s Chop Robinson certainly could be a target, but if you made me bet today, this organization has an affinity for Alabama players and Dallas Turner may have the highest ceiling of the bunch.

​

8. Atlanta Falcons (4-6)

This is the first team that just really feels off to me being here. Once again, if I had to put money on who will ultimately win the NFC South, Atlanta would still be my pick. They already beat the two teams just below them here, their three consecutive losses have come by a combined score of 10 points despite switching back and forth between quarterbacks and they were 4-3 prior to it, despite now being tied for the third-worst turnover differential in the league (-6). Until recently, I had been pretty impressed by their defense and while the fantasy community would tell you Arthur Smith is the worst coach in the league – and I certainly disagree with some of his personnel decisions myself – I’m very happy to see them hand the reigns back over to second-year signal caller Desmond Ridder, because when he was in the lineup, this offense actually moved the ball pretty efficiently. What has killed them has simply been turnovers, which I hope the time on the bench will lead to him – and the team as a whole taking better care of the ball, especially in the red-zone. With that being said, he certainly hasn’t performed up to a standard that excludes the Falcons from considering taking another shot at the position, in particular if they do end up picking closer to the mid-teens and feel like the value is right. Considering how they want to run the offense, there are a few names that could give them similar positives to Ridder, with more consistency in ball-placement and avoiding turnover-worthy plays. With Jeff Okudah being just a one-year rental, Atlanta could be looking for a long-term running mate to A.J. Terrell at corner with somebody like Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry, and while they’ve been applying pressure more regularly, they could still be targeting one of those guys we’ve discussed already, who can consistently win rushing off the edge.

​

9. Green Bay Packers (4-6)

These Packers are kind of another team that could be ascending and at least making a run at the number seven seed in the NFC, which the Vikings currently own at 6-5. Following a calendar month filled with losses – with their bye week in-between – they’ve now sandwiched that stretch by winning two of three games. The most important piece of this has been Jordan Love re-gaining his confidence and just having a career day against the Chargers. Considering he signed that rather odd contract extension in the offseason and that they may not be in range for a quarterback of their liking, I’d say the most likely outcome is that they give him another year, pending any significant setbacks this season, and they actually give him some help when they are on the clock. The long-term status of former All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is very much in the air still. He looked like himself in the season-opener this year, but with just 13 total games played since the start of 2021, I’m just not sure if they can depend on anything from him going forward. Depending on if they believe Zach Tom can flip over to the blind-side, it may give them the option to address offensive tackle somewhere between picks eight and 18 or so. Alabama’s J.C. Latham, Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga, and Georgia’s Amarius Mims all excel on the right side, but they bring different things to the table. Latham is already an advanced pass-protector who can really put edge defenders in a cage with his snatch-and-trap technique, Fuaga is a violent, mean road-grader in the run game with impressive athleticism at about 340 pounds and Mims is the most talented of the bunch, but only just returned from injury two weeks ago after missing extended and if he does declare as a true junior, he’ll do so with only 8.5 starts plus whatever playoff games he may be part of.

​

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)

After shockingly starting the year 3-1, the Bucs have crashed down to earth, losing five of their next six – including four straight following their week four bye. This is a franchise I’m not really sure what to make of for the future. Baker Mayfield has played well enough to make this a competitive team, but this always felt more like a one-year project and if they exist in mediocrity, he’s not the guy to base anything around and it’s probably time to say goodbye from some of these well-compensated veterans. Mike Evans has played as if he’s just pissed off and trying to show he’s still one of the league’s best receivers, not enough is made of how flawless Tristan Wirfs transition to the blind-side has been up until this past Sunday at least and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. has played at an All-Pro level, constantly being around the ball. Outside of those proven commodities, what has been encouraging is seeing how quickly some of these rookie defenders have acclimated themselves – Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby are true disruptors up front and Christian Izien looks like a quality starting nickel, after I predicted him to make an impact as an undrafted free agent. Realistic expectations from this ownership group should’ve been all along that after going all-out for this window with Tom Brady, they’d be taking some time to re-group and trying to keep the band together mostly didn’t really work. With both starting linebackers and safeties becoming free agents this offseason, they’ll be addressing those positions at some point in the draft, but not if they end up picking this high. Unless GM Jason Licht is pushed by ownership to attack quarterback early on, he’s probably working with a new head coach on transitioning this roster and depending if Big Mike is part of that plan, they may look at Florida State’s Keon Coleman as a younger version of that alpha receiver or they target one of those three right tackles I just discussed.

​

11. New York Jets (4-6)

This is certainly not what Jets fans expected their season to look like. Of course, those dreams came crashing down early on, when the supposed savior Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles just four snaps into his time in the Big Apple. While Zach Wilson did have some positive moments during Rodgers’ absence, they have not gotten any consistent quarterback play and just announced a couple of days ago that they were making the switch to an even lesser-proven commodity in Tim Boyle. With that being said, this Jets brass still appears all-in on the possibility of having a Hall of Fame QB for another year or two and maximizing the window they have with him. Their defense is better than the numbers would indicate – as they’re being dragged down by an offense that can’t take pressure off them, putting them on the field for the fourth-longest time per game (27:38 minutes) – but they have rarely looked like a truly elite unit to me. It’ll be interesting how many pending free agents on the D-line they can bring back or how they decide to reload. Yet, for all his flaws, it’s pretty obvious that without Alijah Vera-Tucker on the O-line, Zach Wilson didn’t have a whole lot to rely on – Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are the only two difference-makers and the only QB with multiple starts who has been pressured at a higher rate (28.3%) is Daniel Jones. Optimally, you’d certainly prefer Allen Lazard be your WR3, but reports emerged this past weekend about how the Jets already approached the Raiders to reunite Rodgers with Davante Adams and will continue to be in this discussion during the offseason. So with how injury-prone the O-line has been on top of question marks we already had coming into the year, that seems at least written in pen for them already as the plan here. That’s why I’ll never be convinced that the Jets didn’t get sniped by the Steelers for Georgia OT Broderick Jones this past April.

​

12. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)

There’s not another more frustrating team in the NFL right now than the Chargers. They have a 52.5-million-dollar quarterback in terms of average annual value, are among the top spenders overall and have a coaching staff in place for year three, while having replaced the one squeaky wheel calling plays on offense. Yet they’re only two games above 0.500 over the past three seasons, not cracking the top-20 in scoring defense in any of those and their rushing success has decreased in each of them, now down to 31st overall. You can blame a lot of factors in why they consistently underperform, but the two biggest points – Brandon Staley being one of the worst late-game managers across the league and their big-ticket names simply not living up to the billing – outside of Herbert. In particular, you can look at a defense with Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James, and J.C. Jackson – who didn’t even play a full season for them of his original four-year deal – combining for a 53.5-million-dollar cap hit this year and yet outside of a random six-sack performance from Mack, simply haven’t made enough big plays. We’ll have to see how many of those guys they’re going to part ways with, as the Staley era probably comes to an end, unless we see a massive turnaround here. You’d obviously like to see the Chargers be able to run the ball more effectively, but as long as Mike Williams was healthy, they were mostly lighting up teams with their offense. That’s where drafting Jordan Addison or Zay Flowers over Quentin Johnston this past April, coming off a brutal drop that probably cost them a win this past Sunday at Green Bay, would be massive right now. With Gerald Everett about to be off the books, I’d love to see Herbo throw to Georgia TE Brock Bowers though, to finally give them a reliable YAC threat. Yet, I’d think with Asante Samuel Jr. as the only corner of note under contract past this season, that’s clearly a position to target in a pretty strong class. Getting another DB with versatility like Iowa’s Cooper DeJean could make a lot of sense and so would finally addressing the interior D-line early on in the draft with Illinois’ Jer’Zhan Newton.

​

13. Los Angeles Rams (4-6)

On one hand, the Rams are fairly close to where they were expected to be prior to the season and if for just slightly better late-game management by the Seahawks, they could pick be picking six spots higher than this right now. On the other, I can envision a path where they make it to 9-8 and compete for that final Wildcard spot as I look through their remaining schedule. On paper, looking at this roster, you saw a quarterback coming off yet another significant back injury, one proven pass-catcher, an offensive line that surrendered 59 sacks last season (third-most in the NFL), and a defense that consisted of Aaron Donald and zero other players drafted within the top-75 in those respective years. However, with the emergence of rookies like Puka Nacua and Byron Young, Matt Stafford playing like a borderline elite quarterback when his thumb isn’t bothering him and play-callers on both sides of the ball in Sean McVay and Raheem Morris elevated the individual pieces at hand, they have the ability to challenge pretty much any team in the league. So L.A. is in a position, where assuming Stafford comes back for another year, they can see if a promising young QB falls to them somewhere on day two and focus on getting the best player available in the first round. Preferably that would be on the defensive side of the ball, where they can’t rely on Ahkello Witherspoon to be responsible with nearly a bottom-ten passer rating (69.4) among corners after being a liability on the perimeter for the majority of his first five seasons in the league. I just mentioned Cooper DeJean for the other L.A. team, but someone like Clemson’s Nate Wiggins could become Raheem Morris’ new version of Jalen Ramsey, as a long, twitchy guy they can stick to the boundary and structure their coverages around him.

​

14. Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)

The vibes around the Silver and Black have been significantly better since they fired the combination of Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler, naming Antonio Pierce interim head coach. Following a 3-5 start, they annihilated the Giants, beat the Jets in a close game, and had four offensive drives to potentially tie up the Dolphins in a 20-13 loss this past Sunday, with Miami expected to blow them out in their first game off the bye week. Having said that, I was somewhat confused about where the Raiders saw themselves coming into the season already. While it took a while to get them in-house, they brought back the reigning rusher leader in Josh Jacobs, have a star veteran receiver in Davante Adams, one of the elite defensive players in the game Maxx Crosby and all they did during the offseason was sign more veterans to fill out the rest of the roster. Yet, then they turned around and put this supposedly ready-to-compete team in the hands of Jimmy G – which unsurprisingly turned out horribly, after a couple of solid weeks early on, when they were able to mostly operate on schedule. They didn’t make any reinforcements to an O-line that had massive issues in pass-protections in 2022 and outside of seventh overall pick Tyree Wilson – who has a combined 1.5 sacks and TFLs up to this point – Marcus Epps was the only defensive addition of note. We’ve since heard Antonio Pierce describe linebacker Robert Spillane as “the guy they want to center things around” and he’s played exceptionally well, but while the defense has performed above expectations, DC Patrick Graham is making the best of the pieces he has. I’d say if one of those three offensive tackles I mentioned after Fashanu and Alt is available here, that’s definitely worth consideration as a replacement for Thayer Munford on the right side. Otherwise, a play-wrecker on the interior like Jer’Zhan Newton or their top corner on the board – which may very well be the feisty Kalen King from Penn State, if they keep this staff in place – sound like logical alternatives.

​

​

The rest of the analysis can be found here!

​

​

15. Indianapolis Colts (5-5)

​

16. Denver Broncos (5-5)

​

​

​

If you enjoyed this NFL breakdown, please consider heading over to the original article, and feel free to check out all my other video content!

​

Twitter: @ halilsfbtalk

Instagram: @ halilsrealfootballtalk

​

I try to do this weekly during the season. Third year now. The previous edition can be found here.

#What is ANY/A and why does this matter?

ANY/A is a QB statistic which correlates extremely well with wins. Aside from EPA/play (which as far as I’m aware is much harder to calculate as an individual, I think it’s the best available (to us plebeians, that is). Its full name is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, and it’s basically a modification of yards per attempt in the following manner:

(20 x TDs + passing yards - 45 x INTs - sack yards)/(pass attempts + sacks)

A higher number is better.

Is it perfect? No, obviously not. It doesn’t account for a lot of things, like fumbles and rush yards and pick sixes and several other things like torrential rain games which skew stats in weird directions, but it is a pretty good stat and is not too terribly difficult to calculate by hand.

ANY/A is often computed over at least several games, but most often over a season or career. This is because it’s very prone to volatility. As you’ll see below, QBs can put up ANY/As in a single game that can be far better or worse than their career ANY/A.

So, why should you care about this? Frankly, if you don’t care than feel free to ignore this post. I just like statistics and thought it was be interesting to put up. But my argument for it is that even at a small sample size, the larger ANY/A in a game seems to win a lot (generally because it means the QB played better than the other QB). So maybe it’ll give you one more aspect you can pay attention to in a football game.

With all that being said, here’s the data I’ve accumulated.

#Data Table for Week 11

Player	ANY/A	Grade
Brock Purdy	12.59	A
Lamar Jackson	9.93	B
Will Levis	9.63	B
Trevor Lawrence	9.12	B
Josh Allen	8.42	B
Tua Tagovailoa	7.95	B
Jordan Love	7.79	B
Justin Herbert	7.47	C
Tommy DeVito	7.46	C
Russell Wilson	7.27	C
Justin Fields	6.84	C
Geno Smith	6.67	C
Dak Prescott	6.03	C
Joe Burrow	5.63	C
Joshua Dobbs	5.44	C
CJ Stroud	5.30	C
Kyler Murray	5.18	C
Matthew Stafford	5.00	C
Jake Browning	4.06	D
Baker Mayfield	4.00	D
Patrick Mahomes	3.70	D
Jared Goff	3.46	D
Aidan O’Connell	3.37	D
Jalen Hurts	2.93	D
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	2.68	D
Kenny Pickett	2.48	D
Sam Howell	2.33	D
Bryce Young	1.36	F
Zach Wilson	1.30	F
Tim Boyle	-1.47	F

#Grades

Now, what are those little letters listed after the ANY/A? Well, those are my grades.

Before you start screaming at me about your favorite player’s grade, let me just say that it isn’t just random where the cutoffs are. Specifically:

An A grade corresponds to a single-game ANY/A greater than or equal to 10.

A B grade corresponds to a single-game ANY/A greater than or equal to 7.5, but less than 10.

A C grade corresponds to a single-game ANY/A greater than or equal to 4.5, but less than 7.5.

A D grade corresponds to a single-game ANY/A greater than or equal to 2, but less than 4.5

An F grade corresponds to a single-game ANY/A less than 2.

Now, these grades aren’t like those in school, where the average ends up usually being a B, and very few people get D’s and F’s. This is a curve where the average is intended to be a straight C. Similarly, the vast majority of single-game performances also are intended to be a C, because C’s should be enough to be competitive in most games. As such, B’s and D’s are somewhat unusual but not extraordinarily so, and F’s and A’s are extraordinary games, for either good or bad reasons.

Note that single-game ANY/As do not necessarily match up with season-long and career-long ANY/As. Single-game ANY/As are much, much more volatile and will yield a much larger spread than a typical season-long ANY/A spread. For that reason, you cannot treat them the same as you would a season-long ANY/A, where an exceptional, MVP-caliber season would be an 8+ ANY/A. It’s kind of like the PFF system, where a lot of consistently good performances will get you a higher grade than one great performance and a bunch of mediocre performances.

Well then, what do the grades mean? While they are certainly somewhat subjective, this is what I intended them to represent:

A: This grade represents an exceptional game through the air. This performance was nearly flawless and is incredibly difficult to replicate game in and game out. It’s nearly unsustainable, even for the best QBs. There should be no more than a few of these per week. A string of these would probably result in the greatest season of all time.

B: This grade represents an excellent game through the air. While some mistakes were present, the good vastly outweighs the bad. These are certainly more sustainable than the A-graded games, and the best QBs can sometimes have these games for long stretches at a time. A lot of these games will probably put you in the MVP race, and there should be a handful of these per week.

C: This grade represents a mediocre or satisfactory game. There were mistakes and success, but neither vastly outweighed the other. This kind of performance will put most teams in contention to win most games, and the majority of QBs in a week will have this kind of performance.

D: This grade represents a bad game. Many mistakes were made, enough so that they significantly outweighed the successes. A team with a QB playing like this will be hard-pressed to win games, and if your QB is playing like this often, it’s probably time to look for a replacement. There should t be too many of these per week, but there should definitely be some.

F: This grade represents a terrible game. The QB had essentially none or very few positives throughout the game, far outweighed by the negatives. With this kind of performance, it’s almost impossible to win a game. A string of these warrants a benching almost immediately. Just like for the A’s, there should only be a couple of these per week at the most.

My opinion is that my cutoffs do represent these grades well. The vast majority of grades fall between B and D, with the most in C, and A’s and F’s are few and far between. I didn’t just throw darts at a board either, I spent quite a few weeks looking at the numbers before coming up with these cutoffs, sometime last year (unfortunately I do not remember exactly when). Obviously you can always make slight changes here and there, but I’ve been using this system for a while and it’s easier for me to keep using it than to do some statistics with standard deviations and percentages and the like and figure out what the perfect cutoffs would be. [And actually, most of the time, these track pretty well with the idea of standard deviation - usually the number of C’s is pretty close to the amount within a single standard deviation of the mean, and usually there are only a couple A’s and F’s, which are ideally meant to be outside 2 standard deviations from the mean. While this hasn’t been numerically tested or anything, I feel pretty good about it in general].

If you don’t like them even after this explanation, feel free to ignore them. I just made them for fun anyway.

#Tl;dr

ANY/A is a QB stat that tracks well with wins; larger is better. This includes a list of the single-game ANY/A for any QB who played significant snaps (aka both meaningful in number and meaningful in value) this week. There are attached grades which are somewhat arbitrary (I set the cutoffs once in the past but I don’t make changes to individual grades). I think they make sense and fit my goal, but if you don’t like them feel free to ignore them.