A few weeks ago I posted a new quarterback rating system called QB Score or QBS. Using the feedback from Reddit, here is QB Score v2.0 and a midseason grade for every NFL starter using QBS as the measuring stick. Note all stats/score are through 9 weeks and DO NOT include yesterday's games.
For the TLDR types: Just look at the charts and you should have enough ammunition to flame the idiot who wrote this nonsense. You will find QB Score, Passer Rating & QBR scores and ranks for each quarterback within. The following to links will take you to the full article about QB Score and Quarterback Grades.
QB Score Explained
NFL 2023 QB Midseason Grades
NFL 2023 QB Scores (QBS) Through Week 9
NF: 2023 QB Score & Midseason Grades
Why QB Score?
QB Score, QBS, is derived from comparing the stats of all quarterbacks to each other and then scoring each QB in 14 categories. To do the scoring, QBS uses Standard Deviation units. Essentially the better a QB is compared to all his fellow QBs in that metric, the higher the score he receives for that metric.
The argument for using QBS is pretty clear:
- It is the most intuitive of the QB rating scales with an average of virtual zero and the smallest range.
- QBS is the easiest QB rating metric to calculate
- QBS is the only comparative QB rating system that takes into account the QB’s performance compared to their peers.
- Quantifying the QBS score to a descriptive adjective on the QB play is simplest due the inherent ranges in its scoring system.
QB Score Metrics
Here is the process for calculating QBS. All NFL QBs are scored in 11 statistics:
- Completion %
- Passing Yards / Game
- Intended Air Yards / Pass Attempt
- Completed Air Yards / Game
- Completed Air Yards / Pass Attempt
- Intended Air Yards/ Pass Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Pass Attempt (Inverse)
- On Target %
- Touchdown %
- Interception % (Inverse)
- 1st Down Success %
- Sack % (Inverse)
- Pressure % (Inverse)
- Rushing Yardage
- Rushing 1st Downs
You’ll notice that 4 statistics have (Inverse) next to them. This simply means when calculating, a lower value is better. It is better to have a low INT% and Sack% so the stat/score is inverted. At the bottom of every metric you can see the average and the size of 1 unit SD range. The 3 new QBS v2.0 metrics are in bold italics at the bottom of the list.
Upon the release of the first version of QBS, there was suggestion that it was not rewarding more mobile quarterbacks for their play extending, and play creating talents. Essentially that QB Score was too focused on the actual throwing of the football as opposed to scoring the position of quarterback. A good way to think of it is that QBS would measure and rate all of Tom Brady, but only 3/4 of Lamar Jackson.
This is a fair criticism and something that needed to be tweaked if QBS was going to rate quarterbacks, and not just the ability of quarterbacks to throw the ball. However, it had to be limited. Even in seasons when Lamar Jackson ran for 1000 yards, he was still passing for about 3000 yards and these are the most exteme cases of rushing yds vs passing yds for quarterbacks. A fair estimate is probably more like 500 yards rushing per 3000 yards passing is the sign of a mobile qb. As a ratio this means about 1/7 (500/3500) of the QB’s production is rushing, 6/7(3000/3500) is passing. 1/7 translates into roughly 14.3%, and for extremely mobile quarterback it could range as high as 25%(Jackson in 2019 & 2020).
Thus the ability to rush and avoid pressure should count for about 15%-20% of a quarterbacks value. There are now 2 out of 14 metrics strictly dedicated to a quarterbacks rushing ability, or 1/7. Considering the Pressure % metric is intended to reward quarterbacks under pressure, it is also recognizing the value of a mobile quarterback. Thus we come to that 15%-20% area. Ideally, QB Score would be flexible and robust enough to identify the best all around quarterback of that year whether the qb was a statuesque Tom Brady, or a Tasmanian Devil like Lamar Jackson.
New Metrics in QB Score
Pressure % (Inverse)
The Pressure % metric has been added to balance out how much time each quarterback has had to produce their statistics. This is an INVERSE metrics so QBs who are facing a high % of pressure will score higher, and quarterbacks facing minimal pressure will score lowest.
The logic for including this revolves around protection scheme and line play. If a qb faces pressure a smaller % of the time, they should, all other things held equal, produce better statistics. They are not being rushed, or running for the lives as much. They are sitting in a clean pocket, scanning the field, and can step into throws.
Likewise, a quarterback that is under pressure a high % of the time is most likely having to make quicker reads, scramble, and work from dirtier pockets. Again, all other things being equal, a qb facing a high % of pressure will typically produce worse stats than a qb facing a low % of pressure.
A modern mobile quarterback is going to be helped by this metric as they will be more capable of producing positive stats after being flushed. They simply deal with pressure better than a statuesque type quarterback.
If a team wants to Max Protect a quarterback to mimizize pressure %, that is fine, but the quarterback will be expected to produce better stats when Max Protected then when not Max Protected. Simply put, if a qb is not performing better with extra blockers, it would be better to send the blockers out as receivers. Their value as extra protection is zero.
One of the reasons Tom Brady is Tom Brady is because he often faced a small % of pressure. Take an exceptional qb, add in a bit more time in the pocket via more protection(which increases his production), and you end up with a GOAT.
And while I don’t think Zach Wilson is Tom Brady, I am not sure Zach Wilson is as bad as Zach Wilson IF Zach Wilson wasn’t facing an inordinately high amount of pressure.
Rushing Yardage
This one is as straightforward as it gets. Quarterbacks who rush the ball effectively will score high in this metric. Tom Brady will not.
This metric has nothing to do with throwing the football, but has something to do with playing modern QB in the NFL. The only small issue with this metric is the large rushing yardage range between the best of the running QBs and the Pocket Passers. But using StDev units, the damage of a single metric with an unusual range is always limited.
Rushing 1st Downs
This metric is a double barrel for rushing quarterbacks. By choosing rushing 1st downs as a metric I also included rushing touchdowns. How? In the NFL every touchdown scored by rushing or passing, regardless of the distance covered, is awarded a first down Guide for NFL Statisticians.
For example, Jalen Hurts gets Tush Pushed from the 1 yard line in for a touchdown. Hurts would get credit for 1 yard rushing, a rushing td, and a rushing 1st down. So as you can see by using the rushing first down metric, we can give credit for qb rushing touchdowns without adding the extra metric.
Intended Air Yards – The Gunslinger Metric
Every metric you see above you may have seen before or know already with the exception of two: the metrics involving Intended Air Yards. First, Intended Air Yards is simply the measure of how far the QB threw the ball on all attempts, whether complete, or incomplete.
For example, a QB attempts a 10 yard pass but it is incomplete. Intended Air Yards is 10, but Completed Air Yards is zero. If the pass was complete and the receiver ran for 6 yards after the catch: Intended Air Yards is 10, Completed Air Yards is 10, YAC is 6, and Passing Yards are 16.
I am calling this the Gunslinger metric, and here is why it is included. Ideally you would love to have a QB willing, and able, to push the ball downfield. So let’s reward the ones who do in QBS. All other metrics being equal, we would love it if our QB threw for 9 intended air yards every attempt as opposed to 6, because all other things being equal(including completion %), we would move down the field faster.
But all other things are not equal…Completion % decreases as intended air yards increase(its harder to complete a longer pass than a shorter one in most cases). The ball literally takes longer to travel 9 yards as opposed to 6 yards giving defense more time to react. Most importantly, most NFL defenses are set up to minimize long pass completions in exchange for shorter ones. So a gunslinger QB who is always trying to go deep needs to be kept in check in QBS by making sure they are not just flinging it willy nilly downfield.
The way this is done is with the second metric, (Intended Air Yards / PA – Completed Air Yards / PA), a metric I made up. I call this metric, The Take What The Defense Is Giving You Metric. This is how it works…By taking IAY/PA and subtracting CAY/PA we are seeing if the QB is trying to go deep too often. Essentially, NOT taking what the defense gives them.
NFL 2023 - QB Score Gunslinger Metric Chart
The Case for QB Score – QBS
For scoring, all we have to do is take the actual StDev value. Do that for all 14 metrics, add them all up, and you get QB Score, or QBS. The major difference being that, in QBS each QB is scored in each metric based on their performance AGAINST ALL OTHER QUARTERBACKS in that metric. While it does matter what the quarterback did in the game on Sunday, it is also dependent on what all other QBs did on Sunday as well.
The second thing that makes QBS easier to understand and calculate, is that the average QBS score is literally 0.00 through 9 weeks. That is pretty easy to remember compared to avg Passer Rating of 89.99 and an average 53.16 for QBR. A quarterback with a positive QBS is performing above average, one with a negative QBS is performing below average. Again pretty simple to use.
The third thing that makes QBS the better QB metric is that it has the smallest range of values. The current range for QB is -10.80 to 11.07 Through Week 9, the current range for Passer Rating is 70.5 – 106.4, and the range for QBR is 32.3 to 75.3. With QBS, using StDev of the QB Scores themselves, we can easily assign grades or performance buckets to the range.
The avg QB Score is 0.00, and the StDev is 6.73.
QB Score Interpretation
13.47+ = Exceptional6.74 – 13.46 = Good to Excellent0.00 – 6.73 = Slightly above average to Good0.00 – -6.73 = Slightly below average to Bad-6.74 – 13.46 = Bad to Horrible-13.47 or lower = WTF?!
QB Score is a lot easier and clearer than either Passer Rating or QBR when it comes to figuring out what the number translates into with regards to summarizing the QB’s performance. The chart below will help crystalize it.
QB Score vs Passer Rating vs QBR
The chart shows QB Score, Passer Rating, & QBR scores and ranks for every quarterback. The extra column shows how many SD above or below the average for the rating each QB happens to be. We are converting Passer rating and QBR into quasi-QBS in order to compare them. Thus trying to measure/compare them Apples to Apples to Apples.
NFL 2023 - QB Score vs Passer Rating vs QBR
Converting Passer Rating & QBR Into Standard Deviation Units
QBS has a range of 1.65(Hurts) down to -1.60(Tannehill)
Passer Rating has a range for 1.61(Tagovailoa) down to -1.71(Tannehill)
QBR has a range of 1.64(J. Allen) down to -1.55(Z. Wilson)
Thus both Passer Rating and QBR show the same StDev range and characteristics as QBS. However they are murkier and more confusing in both the calculation and interpretation.
Since we are only looking at half a year stats in 2023, I ran QB Scores for both 2022 and 2021. I found it interesting that QBS has Tom Brady #1 for 2021, & Patrick Mahomes #1 for 2022. You could not find two more opposite quarterbacks in the way they play the position, but QB Score allowed each to be the best in a given season. This a sign of hope that QB Score could be a metric that allows comparison between typical pocket passers and modern mobile quarterbacks without being overally biased against either type.
NFL 2022 QB Scores
NFL 2021 QB Scores
Calculating Grades, Strengths & Weaknesses For Each Quarterback
Let's look at how grades, strength & weaknesses are identified statistically. This is the little bit of math part but it is something you are already familar with if you ever had a teacher grade on the curve.
The unit of measure for QB Score is Standard Deviation units (StDev). Very simply, StDev units measure how unusually good or bad a statistic is compared to the range it is in. In mathematics:
- 68.26% of the data should fit within +/- 1 StDev unit
- 95.44% of a data range should fit within +/- 2 StDev units,
- 99.72 % within +/- 3 StDev units.
Remember the old Bell Curve that your teacher would use to adjust test scores? The Bell Curve is simply a graphical representation of normal probability distribution. That is a lot of mathematical jargon that boils down to the Bell Curve is showing Standard Deviation in picture form. The greek letter sigma σ is the mathematical symbol for STDev Units.
https://preview.redd.it/by2f4235e40c1.png?width=746&format=png&auto=webp&s=f125f97d416444f2e5805ba1247fd7701eadfe91
So it should make sense that a statistic that is close to +2.0 StDev is unusually high, while a statistic that measures -1.95 StDev is unusually low. Normally any measurement that results in an StDev between +2 - +3 or -2 to -3 is so unusual compared to the other data, it is called an Outlier. This just means that data point, or outlier, is worth investigating because being able to replicate positive outliers is like statistical gold. Maybe even platinum when applying it to something like e-commerce or an NFL quarterback skill.
Letter Grade Scale
A = 1.51+ StDev units
B = 0.51 thru 1.50 StDev
C = -0.50 thru -0.50
D = -1.50 thru -0.51
F = Below -1.51 StDev units
The grade scale simply uses the Overall QB Score StDev units for grading purposes. A quarterback who's overall QB Score is 1.51 or more StDev above average will grade out an A. Remember, this is the overall score StDev units, not each particular metric's StDev units.
Strengths & Weaknesses Scale
For individual metrics, the following scale was used to categorize performance in the metric. It is simply using the standard deviation ranges to quantify metric into a simple adjectives.
Real Strength = 1.01+
Strength = 0.00 thru 1.00
Weakness = 0.00 thru -1.00
Real Weakness = -1.01 or below
You can see the value for each metric in the QB capsule. QB Score is COMPARATIVE. This means all strengths & weaknesses are in comparison to all other quarterbacks in that statistic/metric. Thus the scoring is essentially a Net Zero system. For one QB to get +1.5 StDev score in a metric, another quarterback must score roughly -1.5 StDev to balance the range.
This is the huge difference between QB Score vs Passer Rating or QBR. QB Score measures the quarterbacks against each other, Passer Rating & QBR rate quarterbacks against a set standard.
Each quarterback is listed with all their metrics scores. QB Score, Passer Rating & QBR are shown. Each quarterback is assigned a letter grade for their overall score, and a list of strengths and weaknesses for each metric. Remember, strengths & weaknesses are in comparison to other quarterback, essentially where they gained and lost points.
Strength & Weakness Symantics
If there is ever a metric listed as a strength or weakness that could be misleading, it is normally followed with an * and then a note at the bottom of the QB capsule explaining the possible confusion. Simply apply the same note if you see the same potentially misleading metric in a similar spot further down.
For example, Pressure % listed as a Real Strength means the quarterback has been under the most pressure compared to all other quarterbacks, NOT that the quarterback is good at dealing with pressure. It is there to indicate that the stats and score the quarterback have produced thus far have been under abnormally high pressure % compared to other QBs on the list.
Similarly, Pressure % listed as a Real Weakness DOES NOT mean the quarterback cannot deal with pressure. Rather that they have produced their stats while facing far less pressure than their fellow quarterbacks thus far in 2023.
A QB Score Quaterback Capsule
NFL 2023 - Jalen Hurts QB Score Capsule
Everything in QB Score is comparative. So the list of strengths and weaknesses define which metrics and stats Hurts is excelling in(gaining points), and suffering in(losing points) COMPARED TO THE OTHER 31 STARTING QUARTERBACKS. You can find all 32 grades in the article linked at the top of the post.
I hope everyone had an enjoyable day of football yesterday, and let's get ready for some football and a Monday night party.
