iCE_P0W3R

Some context. I had this conversation with my dad about what team was the greatest in the history of the NBA, and by the end we agreed that there was probably no team in the league’s history so far that could beat them in a best of 7 series.

Then we got to talking about what it would take to beat a team like that, with everyone performing at their peak. Obviously, a team of Lebron, Magic, MJ, Kareem, and Duncan would wipe the floor with them, but that much talent on a roster is obviously overkill, so we came up with some rules to try and figure out a starting 5 of all time great players that could beat them without going overboard. From there, the conversation and challenge shifted to something more difficult, beating arguably the greatest team of all time in a 4 game sweep.

Rule 1: You are allowed to draft a singular consensus top 10 all-time player.

Rule 2: You are allowed to draft a singular consensus top 20 all-time player.

Rule 3: You can draft any other 3 players outside of the top 75. (When we were doing this, we just used the NBA’s top 75 all time team, with some exceptions, like Jokic, Luka, Dwight Howard, and DRose.)

Rule 4: You can’t draft anyone on that Warriors team.

What I think is a compelling part of this challenge is that you need to account for different play styles and how they can beat mesh to not just beat but dominate one of the league’s greatest teams ever.

What we came up with was this:

PG - Tony Parker SG - Vince Carter SF - Lebron James PF - Pau Gasol C - Nikola Jokic

At this point, I do consider Jokic a top 20 all time player, which is why I picked him. In my opinion, the way you beat a team like the KD Warriors requires you to out offense them without compromising defense. I do think that the combined efforts of Lebron, Jokic, and Gasol would be effective at limiting the scoring trio of KD, Curry, and Klay to something more manageable, and put them in a good spot to overpower them offensively. Speaking of which, all the players listed are more than capable passers, and minus Pau, are all reliable 3 point shooters. The team’s offensive schemes would be designed around maximizing ball movement so as to to set up clear and open shot opportunities. Lebron would probably be handling the ball the most, and would be extremely adept at driving the ball towards the basket before kicking it out to one of his teammates, who would either pass to a more open shooter or take the shot themselves. I can see this team putting up points more reliably than KD and Steph would be able to shoot 3’s.

What do y’all think, and what teams would you guys make to sweep this warriors team?

For me, I personally think a lot of advanced metrics fail to hit the mark for me, but I totally reject win shares, even though I think it’s a cool idea in theory. Fundamentally, my problem is that it fails to account for the team structure around a measured player as well as the strength of teams they play, and, as such, it results in some pretty strange outcomes.

For instance, the leader in playoff win shares in 2020 was Anthony Davis over Lebron James. Lebron had splits of 27.6/10.8/8.8 with 1.2 steals and 0.9 blocks. AD had splits of 27.7/9.7/3.5 with 1.2 steals and 1.4 blocks. Their stats are almost identical, but Lebron had significantly more assists, yet he has a slightly lower total win shares and WS/48. I feel like this is weird considering the general consensus after the bubble was Lebron was the clear cut best player that postseason, especially after winning Finals MVP.

A more egregious example in my mind is 2011. That year, Lebron led the league in total playoff win shares, even though he ended up losing the Finals to Dirk Nowitzki, who, himself, may have had one of the single greatest postseason runs ever, beating Kobe and the defending champion Lakers, the Duncan trio Spurs, and the Heatles all in a singular postseason, all without being on a team without a ton of talent. Wouldn’t being one of the primary stars on a championship team bias the stat towards him getting more win shares? Shouldn’t that be the case given what the stat intends to observe? And how can Lebron have such a high amount when he’s sharing the court with 2 other great players?

What about you guys? Are there advanced metrics that you think miss the mark in their attempts to further an understanding of the game?