NFL

On December 19th, 1993, the Bill Parcels coached Patriots beat the Bill Belichick coached Browns 20-17, when Pats RB Leonard Russell plunged in from 4 yards out in the 4th quarter to ice the game and move the Patriots to 3-11 on the season, and 3-14 over their last 17 games. This is the last time the Patriots had a worse record over 17 games than they do right now at 4-13.

10,919 days ago, the average Reddit user wasn’t born. We were only two years into the internet being used in homes, and the first Smart Phone, the Simon Personal Communicator (SPC) was a year away from hitting the market. That is the last time the Patriots were worse than they are today.

The astonishing low of 4-13 over 17 games reached by New England after putting up only 6 points against the Colts in Germany and facing their third consecutive loss, is reaching new territory for that they haven’t seen in 30 years. The chart below shows the entire history of the Patriots on a rolling 17-game basis. The unprecedented success from 2001-2019 with wins hovering between 12-14 regularly is an incredible run, that we are not likely to see again in our lifetimes. Included in this are seven different times where they had a rolling 17-0 record. The steep increase and steep decrease pre- and post-Brady isn’t anything football fans aren’t already aware of anecdotally, but it’s striking to see how this looks visually.

https://preview.redd.it/yr33yavr940c1.png?width=1486&format=png&auto=webp&s=d84f05d2a2d1910ea70c7d60677388697371d691

From watching yesterday's game between the Colts and Pats and seeing after the game where Mac clearly looked like he just got done crying it puzzles me to see how can an organization messed up a kid this badly. I'm not excusing Mac's poor play. That last INT would get most QB's benched anyways but overall from ignoring getting him quality skill position players to the Patricia,Judge disaster last year. From what I've seen BOB is scheming up good plays but Mac looks broken beyond repair. I feel a bit sad for him, not too much since he's getting millions of dollars to play a game and a lot of it is on his poor play. How much do you all think is on him vs the organization failing him>

Dallas and Miami need some quality wins coming down the stretch. Otherwise I will consider them pretenders. I do expect both to make the playoffs with potential early exits. The AFC is a true gauntlet this year.

At 5-4, buffalo is in trouble with the 3rd hardest SOS remaining. Worrisome that they still play the Patriots and Jets again, both of whom they have already lost to. Not to mention almost losing to the Giants.

At 6-3, there is a very real chance the Seahawks could limp into the playoffs with a brutal stretch coming up, playing the niners twice, eagles and cowboys

The Ravens look unstoppable, until the 4th quarter. Could the 4th quarter of the season derail them as well? They have the toughest SOS remaining.

Look for NO, Minnesota and Houston to make a strong playoff push at they end the year with favorable schedules

With the NFC retiring for the week by Sunday afternoon I was able to fire up the Commodore64 to run things in that conference for the next week.

Notes, observations, and possible facts:

• The Vikings at 6-4 have slightly better odds than the Cowboys at 6-3 to make the playoffs (using 50/50 coin flip probabilities for each game) owing to their far better conference record and h2h wins over some possible contenders the Cowboys do not have.
• Computer found some wacky paths to the playoffs with just 6 wins for ATL, CAR, TBB, GBP, MIN, NYG, ARI. Everybody else it didn't see anything under 7 wins **. DET and PHI have already hit that mark and could theorectically not show up anymore and still make it.
• It spit out ATL as the only team that could reach as few as 11 wins and be guaranteed a playoff spot (if ATL wins out they become the NFC South champions). It said NOS, TBB, DET, MIN, DAL, PHI, SFF, SEA if reach 12 wins would make the playoffs no matter what **.
• CAR, CHI, GBP, NYG, WAS, LAR, ARI definitively do not control their own destiny. Everyone else likely still does **.
• The win number most realistically likely to be good enough for at least a wildcard spot is 9.5. Since that is difficult to do, call it 10 should be safe with 9 having decent odds of sneaking in or being in a tiebreak situation.
• Mathematically likely number of wins needed to win each division (2nd place +1W or win tiebreak) is around: East 11-12, North 10-11, South 9-10, West 10-11.
• There are no playoff clinching or eliminating scenarios for week 11. My program doesn't do seeds, just in or out. I also don't factor in the possibility of tie games, at least until the last week or so) as it makes things incomphrensible for something with so little chance of happening.
• Bye weeks make this a little fuzzy, but it looks like the absolute earliest PHI could clinch a playoff spot is in 3 weeks.
• The odds of an NFC South team competing for the wildcard are, technically speaking, not good.

​

** The C64 runs an awful lot of scenarios and has some semi-logic trying to hunt down these numbers and pin them down, but at this stage of the season it does not run through every last possible scenario of the bazillion left, so while it can definitively tell what teams do not control their own destiny, and the other numbers marked with an asterisk are very very solid, there might be some one in 5 bazillion scenario(s) in which they are not perfectly perfect and there may be some unlikely scenario in which a team it shows as controlling its own destiny actually does not. It does do far more intensive calculations than simple magic number calculations which don't factor in the effects of team B playing team C have on team A, fwiw.

That's all, I'm bored of this shitty dicotamy. They used to do this with Gronk and now it's Lelch. If they're having a good time in a concecial relationship get it. But I don't fucking care on 3rd and 8 in an unrelated game.

Herbert has played in 59 career games: 58 regular season games and 1 playoff game.

So in slightly more than 10% of his career games, the Chargers score 30 or more points and lose. Those specific games were:

• 10-4-2020 31-38 loss to TB
• 11-1-2020 30-31 loss to DEN
• 1-9-2022 32-35 loss to LV
• 1-14-2023 30-31 loss to JAX (playoff)
• 9-10-2023 34-36 loss to MIA
• 11-12-2023 38-41 loss to DET

This is obviously not accounting for defensive scores, short fields, etc. but is instead just a simple observation.

For comparison's sake, I looked at Tom Brady. He's played a long time, right? So surely he would have a bunch of these games, too.

Brady played in 383 career games: 335 regular season games and 48 playoff games. In those games, Brady's team scored 30+ points and lost just nine times, or just over 2%. Those specific games were:

• 1-21-2007 34-38 loss to IND (playoff)
• 11-15-2009 — 34-35 loss to IND
• 9-25-2011 — 31-34 loss to BUF
• 9-23-2012 — 30-31 loss to BAL
• 12-16-2012 — 34-41 loss to SF
• 10-1-2017 — 30-33 loss to CAR
• 2-4-2018 33-41 loss to PHI (playoff)
• 12-9-2018 — 33-34 loss to MIA
• 10-2-2022 — 31-41 loss to KC

I also quickly looked at some of the best current QBs just to get a sense of what Herbert's contemporaries experience:

• Joe Burrow has had 3 such games (all regular season, 2 in his abbreviated rookie year) of 58 games total, ~5%
• Josh Allen has had 4 such games (3 regular season, 1 in the famous KC playoff loss) of 94 games total, ~4%
• Tua Tagovailoa has never once scored 30 points and lost in 45 career games (though I don't think he started/finished all of them)
• Jalen Hurts has had 2 such games (1 regular season, 1 in last year's Super Bowl) of 58 games total, ~3.5%
• Patrick Mahomes has had 8 such games (7 regular season, 1 playoffs) of 103 games total, ~8%... these were pretty prevalent (relatively speaking) early in Mahomes career but are rarer over the last few years as KC's defense has really emerged
• Yesterday was Lamar Jackson's second-ever game scoring 30+ and losing out of 84 games he was involved, ~2% (though he didn't start in all of them)

In conclusion: Fire Brandon Staley

Also note: It's late and I'm just counting these on pro-football-reference; I may have messed up the count or the math!

Either ownership or somebody is forcing his hand in all of this, right? I liked him and I really don’t want him to actually turn out to be a dumbass in disguise.

Answered!

At what point can a scrambling quarterback no longer pass the ball forward to a teammate?

So I’m watching today and I can’t help but wonder why a flying knee to the head of a defender by a offensive player hurdling them to try and make a play isn’t considered to be a hit to the head of a defenseless player. They have no clue they’re going to get hurdled or the guy would get a helmet to his nuts instead of clearing them, and it’s totally the ball carrier making the decision they can clear them. So when they don’t and they knock a guy out why is it they get no penalties, yet if you hit a receiver in the head it’s 15 and maybe an ejection, without malicious intent these days even. When it comes to safety shouldn’t all players be equal?

Obviously that would be very unlikely, but it’s good to see the guy still has it.

The New Orleans Saints are currently in shambles. The QB play and the coaching are awful. They are old in the trenches. Carr will probably start the rest of the season. He gives them the best chance to eke out a win on top of shit of mountain and be bounced at home in the first round of the playoffs. Because that’s how far his terrible progressions and poor pocket presence can take them.

Would I rather just see Famous Jameis sling it til they go 6-11? And watch the Falcons or Bucs take the honors of a playoff stomping by the Cowboys off their hands? Probably not.

His personal cell # is out there. I sent him a text congratulating him on his career. Now I am paranoid as fuck that he is going to sue me.

Following games were all decided by a game winning field goal, I can not think of any other time it has happened this much on a single day.

bolded team being the winner.

Lions v Chargers

Commanders v Seahawks

Texans v Bengals

Browns v Ravens

Falcons v Cardinals

I see it literally everywhere.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/compare-zach-wilson-and-mac-jones-this-season

Mac has him beat in nearly every category, most of them by a big margin, and does it with perhaps the worst supporting cast in the league. By what metric is Wilson supposed to be better?

Edit: worse*, and yes, they both suck

Week 5 against Broncos: 5 field goals, 72 yard TD run (first play of drive), defensive TD

Week 6 against Eagles: 4 field goals, 8 yard TD run (first play of drive, also become right after huge defensive play late in game)

Week 7: bye

Week 8: 50 yard TD catch-and-run (first play of drive), 2 field goals

Week 9: 2 field goals

Week 10: 4 field goals

We haven’t had a long drive that has resulted in a touchdown in over 6 weeks.

Purdy threw for a career-high 143 yards when pressured, going 8-of-12 with 2 TDs on those passes. He has 8 TD and 1 Int when pressured in his career.

#New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders

ESPN Gamecast

Allegiant Stadium- Las Vegas, NV

Network(s): NBC

Scoreboard

Scoring Plays

Passing Leaders

Rushing Leaders

Receiving Leaders

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Ive been unable to enjoy watching this season. I feel like there arent enough good teams, and having more games with more playoff teams makes it worst. I just feel like theres very few games on the schedule that are between 2 good teams. There is also a lack of predictability in games these days. It just feels like every game is kind of random. I feel like the rules hurt defenses so much that every other game feels like a random shoot out where either team can win.